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SF#20 of 32 wings in 2026
Michael Ajayi
Two-way wing
Butler·23.0 yo at draft
Undrafted/honor mention
ATH composite
—
NCAA dominance
82
Scoring
63
Playmaking
95
Defense
83
Shooting
41
Draft score 29 out of 100, overall rank 65.
Data completeness
grade C · 53/1000/7 combine drills · D1 stats matched (6/6) · 2 mock boards · birthdate known
measures the data backing this profile — not confidence in the ranking
Skill signature · earned from the data
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionGlass CleanerDRB 97th · class
The read · from the percentiles
auto-derived · 2026 classTwo-way wing. Carried by rebounding (97th) and passing (80th); the question mark is scoring efficiency (7th).
StrengthsRebounding97Passing80
WatchScoring efficiency7
Draft outlook
Where the math lands them
Projected landing
Outside the top 60
THE ONE has them at #65, below the two-round projection window.
Model vs the field
The One
#65
Field
#67
In line with the field — our board and the consensus agree within a couple of slots.
across 2 mock boards
Scouting summary
Two-way wing profile. The loudest scout signal: elite bpm (BPM = 95th pct). Their NCAA dominance composite lands at 82 on a 100 scale. Mock consensus pegs them 67th across 2 boards.
Auto-generated from archetype + top deterministic chip · long-form narrative ships when the generator's AI pass is enabled.
Our board over time
Where we've had him since May 30
now#65▲ Riser · up 5
May 30 · #70Jul 27 · #65
How the score is built
deterministic · auditable29.0draft scoreboard #65
Market 62% · consensus 67th / 2 boardsModel 38% · ranked 53rd
Our blend weights the mock-consensus board 62% and our deterministic, age-adjusted model 38% — the market had Ajayi 67th, our model 53rd. The model's own dominance / production / athletic split is in the card above.
Draft score breakdown
How the 29-point composite stacks up
Athletic compositeweight 40%—
no 2026 combine row yet
NCAA dominanceweight 40%82
Mock consensusweight 20%34
avg rank 67 across 2 boards
Deterministic signals · v1 rules
- +6
Elite BPM
BPM = 95th pct
- +2
Consensus risers
latest consensus improved by 7 spots
- 0
No combine
athleticism held at neutral fallback
Skill radar · the shape of his game
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionAvg axis 61th · each vertex is a positional percentile in the 2026 class.
Combine radar · vs. W-bucket
No combine on file
Wingspan
med 83.0"
—
—
Standing reach
med 104.5"
—
—
Max vertical
med 35.0"
—
—
Standing vert
med 29.5"
—
—
¾ sprint
med 3.25s
—
—
Lane agility
med 11.29s
—
—
Shuttle
med 3.04s
—
—
No combine testing on file for this prospect · the rings show the position-group distribution (2000–2025).
Two-way profile · how they play
Synergy · per possession · Butler Bulldogs31 / 100 two-way score
Offense
0.98 PPP7
Defense
0.95 allow38
Shot dieteFG 48%3PT rate 17%FT rate 3%
Ajayi's offensive + defensive efficiency vs the 2026 class, per Synergy possessions.
NBA comps · college production
vs wings · 2013–2025Closest NBA comparisons
College production only · Ajayi didn't test at the combine, so these comps are matched on college box-score production (BPM, TS%, usage, assists) vs the position cohort — not measurables.
Matched on college production (BPM, TS%, usage, assists), within position group. Each comp's tag shows which basis drove it; the college production + career outcome shown belongs to the comp, never projected onto Ajayi.
“Top X%” = closer to Ajayi than (100−X)% of all drafted wings on the measurables + production; the bar shows relative closeness among these 5.
- 1Glen Rice2013top 1%
production only · matched on 5 of 4 production
Became: Fringe NBA · -0.2 career VORP · 16 g
College: Georgia Tech '12 · TS 53.9 · BPM 6.4
PORPAG3.1vs3.1AST%19.4vs19.1BPM5.3vs6.4USG%27.3vs25.7TS%51.6vs53.9 - 2Naji Marshall2020top 1%
production only · matched on 6 of 4 production
Became: Never reached the NBA · 0 g
College: Xavier '20 · TS 53.0 · BPM 5.5
BPM5.3vs5.5USG%27.3vs26.6PORPAG3.1vs3.5TS%51.6vs53.0Age23.0vs22.4AST%19.4vs24.1 - 3Taurean Prince2016top 2%
production only · matched on 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · -0.3 career VORP · 608 g
College: Baylor '16 · TS 53.7 · BPM 5.9
USG%27.3vs27.2BPM5.3vs5.9TS%51.6vs53.7Age23.0vs22.3PORPAG3.1vs3.8AST%19.4vs15.4 - 4RJ Luis Jr.2025top 2%
production only · matched on 5 of 4 production
Became: Too early to grade · 0 g
College: St. John's '25 · TS 52.5 · BPM 4.9
USG%27.3vs27.6BPM5.3vs4.9TS%51.6vs52.5Age23.0vs22.6AST%19.4vs12.3 - 5Kevin McCullar Jr.2024top 4%
production only · matched on 5 of 4 production
Became: Too early to grade · -0.1 career VORP · 25 g
College: Kansas '24 · TS 56.4 · BPM 6.5
USG%27.3vs27.1Age23.0vs23.3BPM5.3vs6.5AST%19.4vs21.8TS%51.6vs56.4
Per-axis gap● near (under ½ SD)● ~1 SD● far (over 1 SD)
Comp outcomes · real careers
5/11 reached the NBAHow the closest comps turned out
2 Starter2 Rotation1 Fringe6 Never reached NBA
Median outcome: Never reached NBA — the typical case among these comps, between the floor and ceiling.
Ceiling
Kyle Kuzma2017
Starter · 1.8 VORP
Floor
Elgin Cook2016
Never reached NBA
The 15 nearest blended comps (4 too recent to grade). These are the comps' own careers — a range of what the profile has become before, not a projection of Ajayi.
College teamButlerBE#66 T-Rank16-16SOS tough schedule · top 15%via BartTorvik
College stats · 2025-26 season
Butler· BE
32 games · 83% min
labeled PF/C
Efficiency
- TS%51.6%50
- eFG%47.7%46
- USG%27.3%95
- ORTG105.167
- AdjOE119.293
- RIM%58.7%50
Playmaking
- AST%19.4%96
- TO%16.7%55
Defense
- STL%1.9%58
- BLK%2.8%91
- DRTG99.374
- DBPM+3.596
Rebounding
- ORB%9.7%94
- DRB%27.5%98
Composite
- BPM+5.394
- OBPM+1.781
- PORPAG3.193
via BartTorvik · percentiles vs W-bucket of all D1 history (2008-26)
Per-game production · 2025-26
percentile vs D1 2008-25 · at position32 games· 33.6 mpg
Points
16.496
Rebounds
11.199
Assists
3.298
Steals
1.187
Blocks
0.998
ShootingFG 45.5%3PT 26.1%FT 65.3%
per-game · via barttorvik · percentiles vs all D1 2008-25 at the position
Raw per-game counts — not pace-adjusted; ranked against an 18-season D1 reference where elite-tier percentiles are stable across the window.
X-factor · Risk · Scheme fit
Long-form scouting prose ships when the generator's AI narrative pass is enabled. The deterministic chip list above carries the same information as structured signals.
Generated by deterministic-v3-ageadj-consensus · Jun 25, 2026
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