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PG/SG#5 of 40 guards in 2026· Projected R1
Keaton Wagler
Lead playmaker
Illinois·6'5" · 188lb·6'6" wing·8'4" reach·8.0" hand·19.4 yo at draft
LotteryOutlier
ATH composite
46
NCAA dominance
90
Scoring
88
Playmaking
97
Defense
65
Shooting
86
Combine
Max vertical
36.0"p51
Lane agility
11.05sp53
¾ sprint
3.27sp31
Standing reach
100.0"p52
Draft score 80 out of 100, overall rank 12, elite statistical outlier.
Data completeness
grade A · 100/1007/7 combine drills · D1 stats matched (6/6) · 3 mock boards · birthdate known
measures the data backing this profile — not confidence in the ranking
Skill signature · earned from the data
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionElite ProducerBPM 97th · classGlass CleanerORB 94th · classPlus Length8'4" reach · 84thRim ProtectorBLK 80th · classFloor Spacer49% 3PT rate · 54% eFG
The read · from the percentiles
auto-derived · 2026 classLead playmaker. Carried by rebounding (94th) and rim protection (80th); no glaring statistical hole.
StrengthsRebounding94Rim protection80
Why this rank
Editorial pin
Our scouting call slots Wagler at #12 — the deterministic model alone had Wagler at #5.
Outlier
Elite draft-score outlier in the 2026 class
Draft outlook
Where the math lands them
Projected landing
#12
Oklahoma City Thunder
1st roundModel vs the field
The One
#12
Field
#6
In line with the field — our board and the consensus agree within a couple of slots.
across 3 mock boards
Scouting summary
Lead playmaker profile. The loudest scout signal: elite bpm (BPM = 99th pct). Their NCAA dominance composite lands at 90 on a 100 scale. Mock consensus pegs them 6th across 3 boards.
Auto-generated from archetype + top deterministic chip · long-form narrative ships when the generator's AI pass is enabled.
Our board over time
Where we've had him since May 30
now#12▼ Faller · down 8
May 30 · #4Jul 27 · #12
How the score is built
deterministic · auditable80.0draft scoreboard #12
Market 62% · consensus 6th / 3 boardsModel 38% · ranked 4th
Our blend weights the mock-consensus board 62% and our deterministic, age-adjusted model 38% — the market had Wagler 6th, our model 4th. The model's own dominance / production / athletic split is in the card above.
Draft score breakdown
How the 80-point composite stacks up
Athletic compositeweight 40%46
NCAA dominanceweight 40%90
Mock consensusweight 20%94
avg rank 6 across 3 boards
Consensus floor applied: 88 (top-15 multi-source override)
Deterministic signals · v1 rules
- +6
Elite BPM
BPM = 99th pct
- +5
High usage + efficient
USG and TS percentiles both clear the v1 trigger
- +4
Elite playmaker (G)
AST% = 97th pct
- +3
Consensus top-15
average consensus rank 6.3
- +2
Young for class
age 19.4 at draft; class median 22.4
Skill radar · the shape of his game
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionAvg axis 64th · each vertex is a positional percentile in the 2026 class.
Combine radar · vs. G-bucket
7 of 7 drills measured
Wingspan
med 79.3"
78.3"
p34
Standing reach
med 99.5"
100.0"
p52
Max vertical
med 35.5"
36.0"
p51
Standing vert
med 30.0"
33.0"
p85
¾ sprint
med 3.21s
3.27s
p31
Lane agility
med 11.09s
11.05s
p53
Shuttle
med 3.05s
3.00s
p70
Frame & hands · the tape
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionHeight
6'5"90
Wingspan diff
+1.3"10
Hand length
8.00"0
Hand width
9.25"55
Wingspan differential = wingspan − barefoot height (the “ape index”); a positive number means longer than tall. Combine measurements, percentile vs the 2026 class at the position.
Combine drills · controlled setting
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionShooting & agility at the combine
Spot-up 3PT
11/25 · 44%11
Off-dribble 3PT
25/30 · 83%79
On-move 3PT
12/25 · 48%16
Modified agility
3.00s32
via stats.nba.com draft combine · shooting at the college 3PT distance (makes / attempts)
Two-way profile · how they play
Synergy · per possession · Illinois Fighting Illini53 / 100 two-way score
Offense
1.11 PPP64
Defense
0.93 allow40
Shot dieteFG 54%3PT rate 49%FT rate 4%
Wagler's offensive + defensive efficiency vs the 2026 class, per Synergy possessions.
NBA comps · measurables + production
vs guards · 2013–2025Closest NBA comparisons
Matched on combine measurements (length, frame, explosion, agility) and college production (BPM, TS%, usage, assists), within position group. Each comp's tag shows which basis drove it; the college production + career outcome shown belongs to the comp, never projected onto Wagler.
“Top X%” = closer to Wagler than (100−X)% of all drafted guards on the measurables + production; the bar shows relative closeness among these 5.
- 1Luke Kennard2017top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 4 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Starter · 6.3 career VORP · 538 g
College: Duke '17 · TS 62.9 · BPM 8.0
Wing78.3"vs77.3"Reach100.0"vs98.5"Weight188 lbvs196 lbHt6'5"vs6'5"PORPAG6.5vs6.4USG%25.7vs23.0TS%59.6vs62.9AST%23.2vs13.6Age19.4vs21.0BPM11.2vs8.0 - 2Kentavious Caldwell-Pope2013top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 4 of 4 production
Became: Starter · 7.2 career VORP · 963 g
College: Georgia '13 · TS 57.9 · BPM 10.4
Reach100.0"vs100.5"Max vert36.0"vs34.5"Wing78.3"vs80.0"Ht6'5"vs6'5"Shuttle3.00svs3.20sWeight188 lbvs204 lbAgility11.05svs10.60s¾ sprint3.27svs3.12sStd vert33.0"vs29.0"BPM11.2vs10.4USG%25.7vs27.2TS%59.6vs57.9AST%23.2vs16.8 - 3Kevin Huerter2018top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · 4.1 career VORP · 551 g
College: Maryland '18 · TS 63.6 · BPM 7.2
Shuttle3.00svs2.97sHt6'5"vs6'6"Agility11.05svs10.89sWeight188 lbvs194 lbWing78.3"vs79.5"Reach100.0"vs101.5"Max vert36.0"vs38.0"Std vert33.0"vs31.0"¾ sprint3.27svs3.09sAge19.4vs19.8AST%23.2vs20.0TS%59.6vs63.6USG%25.7vs21.5BPM11.2vs7.2PORPAG6.5vs4.3 - 4Reggie Bullock2013top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 5 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · 2.6 career VORP · 556 g
College: North Carolina '13 · TS 61.7 · BPM 10.8
Ht6'5"vs6'6"Max vert36.0"vs36.5"¾ sprint3.27svs3.31sReach100.0"vs102.0"Agility11.05svs11.33sStd vert33.0"vs31.0"Weight188 lbvs200 lbWing78.3"vs80.8"Shuttle3.00svs3.30sBPM11.2vs10.8TS%59.6vs61.7AST%23.2vs16.2PORPAG6.5vs4.8USG%25.7vs18.2 - 5VJ Edgecombe2025top 2%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 4 of 4 production
Became: Too early to grade · 1.0 career VORP · 75 g
College: Baylor '25 · TS 55.4 · BPM 9.9
Shuttle3.00svs3.00sAgility11.05svs11.00sWeight188 lbvs193 lbWing78.3"vs79.5"Reach100.0"vs101.5"Max vert36.0"vs39.0"Ht6'5"vs6'4"Std vert33.0"vs30.0"¾ sprint3.27svs3.00sUSG%25.7vs24.4BPM11.2vs9.9AST%23.2vs19.0TS%59.6vs55.4
Per-axis gap● near (under ½ SD)● ~1 SD● far (over 1 SD)
Comp outcomes · real careers
12/13 reached the NBAHow the closest comps turned out
4 Starter6 Rotation1 Fringe1 Bust1 Never reached NBA
Median outcome: Rotation — the typical case among these comps, between the floor and ceiling.
Ceiling
Delon Wright2015
Starter · 11.1 VORP
Floor
Manny Harris2010
Never reached NBA
The 15 nearest blended comps (2 too recent to grade). These are the comps' own careers — a range of what the profile has become before, not a projection of Wagler.
College teamIllinoisB10#6 T-Rank28-9SOS elite schedule · top 2%via BartTorvik
College stats · 2025-26 season
Illinois· B10
37 games · 84% min
labeled Combo G
Efficiency
- TS%59.6%89
- eFG%54.1%83
- USG%25.7%87
- ORTG130.296
- AdjOE147.998
- RIM%57.5%70
Playmaking
- AST%23.2%74
- TO%12.5%83
Defense
- STL%1.7%34
- BLK%1.3%90
- DRTG97.981
- DBPM+2.392
Rebounding
- ORB%6.7%97
- DRB%10.0%67
Composite
- BPM+11.298
- OBPM+8.898
- PORPAG6.599
via BartTorvik · percentiles vs G-bucket of all D1 history (2008-26)
Per-game production · 2025-26
percentile vs D1 2008-25 · at position37 games· 33.9 mpg
Points
17.997
Rebounds
5.198
Assists
4.291
Steals
0.964
Blocks
0.495
ShootingFG 44.5%3PT 39.7%FT 79.6%
per-game · via barttorvik · percentiles vs all D1 2008-25 at the position
Raw per-game counts — not pace-adjusted; ranked against an 18-season D1 reference where elite-tier percentiles are stable across the window.
X-factor · Risk · Scheme fit
Long-form scouting prose ships when the generator's AI narrative pass is enabled. The deterministic chip list above carries the same information as structured signals.
Generated by deterministic-v3-ageadj-consensus · Jun 25, 2026
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