
ESPN
Lead playmaker
Scoring
90
Playmaking
99
Defense
70
Shooting
89
Combine
Max vertical
37.5"p67
Lane agility
11.25sp37
¾ sprint
3.17sp68
Standing reach
98.5"p36
Data completeness
grade A · 100/1007/7 combine drills · D1 stats matched (6/6) · 3 mock boards · birthdate known
measures the data backing this profile — not confidence in the ranking
Skill signature · earned from the data
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionThe read · from the percentiles
auto-derived · 2026 classLead playmaker. Carried by scoring efficiency (75th) and perimeter defense (67th); the question mark is rebounding (17th).
Why this rank
Stirtz came to basketball late, so the board weighs the production without the usual age penalty (22.7 at draft).
Draft outlook
Projected landing

#24
New York Knicks
1st roundModel vs the field
The One
#24
Field
#20
In line with the field — our board and the consensus agree within a couple of slots.
across 3 mock boards
Scouting summary
Lead playmaker profile. The loudest scout signal: elite bpm (BPM = 98th pct). Their NCAA dominance composite lands at 86 on a 100 scale. Mock consensus pegs them 20th across 3 boards.
Auto-generated from archetype + top deterministic chip · long-form narrative ships when the generator's AI pass is enabled.
Our board over time
How the score is built
deterministic · auditableOur blend weights the mock-consensus board 62% and our deterministic, age-adjusted model 38% — the market had Stirtz 20th, our model 15th. The model's own dominance / production / athletic split is in the card above.
Draft score breakdown
avg rank 20 across 3 boards
Deterministic signals · v1 rules
Elite BPM
BPM = 98th pct
High usage + efficient
USG and TS percentiles both clear the v1 trigger
Short wingspan for position
wingspan = 24th pct
Elite playmaker (G)
AST% = 99th pct
Skill radar · the shape of his game
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionAvg axis 58th · each vertex is a positional percentile in the 2026 class.
Combine radar · vs. G-bucket
Wingspan
med 79.3"
78.0"
p30
Standing reach
med 99.5"
98.5"
p36
Max vertical
med 35.5"
37.5"
p67
Standing vert
med 30.0"
30.5"
p55
¾ sprint
med 3.21s
3.17s
p68
Lane agility
med 11.09s
11.25s
p37
Shuttle
med 3.05s
2.91s
p82
Frame & hands · the tape
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionWingspan differential = wingspan − barefoot height (the “ape index”); a positive number means longer than tall. Combine measurements, percentile vs the 2026 class at the position.
Combine drills · controlled setting
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionvia stats.nba.com draft combine · shooting at the college 3PT distance (makes / attempts)
Two-way profile · how they play
Synergy · per possession · Iowa HawkeyesStirtz's offensive + defensive efficiency vs the 2026 class, per Synergy possessions.
NBA comps · measurables + production
vs guards · 2015–2023Matched on combine measurements (length, frame, explosion, agility) and college production (BPM, TS%, usage, assists), within position group. Each comp's tag shows which basis drove it; the college production + career outcome shown belongs to the comp, never projected onto Stirtz.
“Top X%” = closer to Stirtz than (100−X)% of all drafted guards on the measurables + production; the bar shows relative closeness among these 5.
measurables + production · matched on 4 of 9 measurables · 5 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · 0.5 career VORP · 279 g
College: Notre Dame '15 · TS 59.2 · BPM 8.2
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Starter · 18.4 career VORP · 571 g
College: Colorado '17 · TS 62.7 · BPM 9.5
measurables + production · matched on 4 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Starter · 6.3 career VORP · 538 g
College: Duke '17 · TS 62.9 · BPM 8.0
measurables + production · matched on 8 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Fringe NBA · -0.1 career VORP · 21 g
College: Miami FL '23 · TS 57.8 · BPM 5.4
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 5 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · 0.4 career VORP · 449 g
College: Wichita St. '18 · TS 65.5 · BPM 6.5
Comp outcomes · real careers
8/12 reached the NBAMedian outcome: Fringe — the typical case among these comps, between the floor and ceiling.
Ceiling
Derrick White2017
Starter · 18.4 VORP
Floor
Keenan Evans2018
Never reached NBA
The 15 nearest blended comps (3 too recent to grade). These are the comps' own careers — a range of what the profile has become before, not a projection of Stirtz.
College stats · 2025-26 season
37 games · 94% min
labeled Scoring PG
Efficiency
Playmaking
Defense
Rebounding
Composite
via BartTorvik · percentiles vs G-bucket of all D1 history (2008-26)
Per-game production · 2025-26
percentile vs D1 2008-25 · at positionper-game · via barttorvik · percentiles vs all D1 2008-25 at the position
Raw per-game counts — not pace-adjusted; ranked against an 18-season D1 reference where elite-tier percentiles are stable across the window.
X-factor · Risk · Scheme fit
Long-form scouting prose ships when the generator's AI narrative pass is enabled. The deterministic chip list above carries the same information as structured signals.
Generated by deterministic-v3-ageadj-consensus · Jun 25, 2026
Plus pick-by-pick grades on draft night — and we grade our own board against the actual draft, misses included. Free, double opt-in.