Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at TEX?

The model favors TEX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 27, 2026

FINAL+4TEX

SEA

52-55

TEX

54-52

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

27,683 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TEX no-vig %

44.7%

open 47.6% · -2.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.0%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
57.6%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.2%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-4.17

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+101

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

47.6%

Close no-vig

43.4%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at TEX?: The model favors TEX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

TEX vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 119 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
6.7± 2.0high
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.7high
Jacob deGromTEX
6.5± 2.1high

Hits

Cole YoungSEA
1.3± 1.2high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
1.2± 1.3high
Jhonny PeredaSEA
1.1± 0.7medium

Total bases

Ezequiel DuranTEX
2.2± 2.8high
Cole YoungSEA
2.0± 1.7high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.8± 1.3high
Cal RaleighSEA
0.7± 1.0high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
0.6± 1.5high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
3.2± 2.4high
MacKenzie GoreTEX
3.0± 2.1high
Nathan EovaldiTEX
3.0± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

TEX

.687

OPS

.720

▶

.719

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.318

3.98

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.13

3.78

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.33

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.29

8.7

K / 9

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

SEA 3 · TEX 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	3
TEX	1	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Young2B	.256	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. RodriguezCF	.255	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
D. CanzoneDH	.260	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. ArozarenaLF	.284	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
J. Naylor1B	.258	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. RaleyRF	.228	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
M. GarverC	.180	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
J.P. CrawfordSS	.215	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
C. EmersonSS	.202	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team		31	3	7	3	1	3	9

Player

.256

.255

.260

.284

.258

.228

.180

.215

.202

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. KirbySP	4.0	7	7	7	0	3	66
J. FerrerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	10
M. RuckerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	13
C. WilcoxRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
A. HoppeRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	21
Team	8.0	11	7	7	1	10	123

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

123

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PedersonDH	.254	4	2	2	4	2	0	1
W. LangfordLF	.284	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. DuranSS	.273	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
B. NimmoRF	.271	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
E. CarterCF	.198	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. Burger1B	.238	4	1	1	2	1	0	2
N. Lopez2B	.324	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. Smith2B	.220	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. DiazC	.250	3	1	0	0	0	0	2
Team		34	7	11	7	4	1	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. RockerSP	6.2	4	2	2	2	7	88
R. AhlstromRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	7
J. JunisRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	17
J. LatzRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	22
Team	9.0	7	3	3	3	9	134

Team

SEA

TEX

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

TEX vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.