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59 prospects drafted · 29 of 30 R1 hits
Class
Results
How our deterministic Big Board stacked up against the actual 2026 NBA Draft. Best calls, steals, misses, and round-by-round hit rate — every drafted prospect with our rank vs the team's pick.
The receipt
Our rank vs the actual pick
X · OUR RANK Y · ACTUAL PICK n=59
On the dashed line = we called the slot. Green within ±10. Gold fell past our rank (the league waited); red went well before it (the league saw something we didn't). Every top-30-ranked prospect was drafted.
Mean absolute error — published win or lose
±7.8
Our board rank vs actual pick · n=59
±5.3
Public consensus (ESPN · Tankathon · NBADraft.net, final pre-draft) · n=59
The reference ran tighter — that's the receipt
Same drafted prospects in both columns — only rows carrying both our rank and an ingested consensus rank count, and the denominator is identical. Consensus is the average of each source's final pre-draft board. Whichever column runs tighter, it's published.
Class scorecard
The deterministic Big Board vs the actual draft
12/14
Lottery hits
29/30
R1 hits
51/60
R1+R2 hits
29/59
Within ±5
44/59
Within ±10
7.8
Mean abs delta
Best calls
We had them within 3 spots
- #1
AJ Dybantsa
SF · BYU·WSH
exact - #2
Darryn Peterson
PG/SG · Kansas·UTAH
exact - #3
Cameron Boozer
PF/C · Duke·MEM
exact - #8
Kingston Flemings
PG · Houston·ATL
exact - #11
Yaxel Lendeborg
PF/C · Michigan·GS
exact - #14
Hannes Steinbach
PF/C · Washington·CHA
exact - #28
Joshua Jefferson
SF/PF · Iowa State·MIN
exact - #4
Caleb Wilson
PF/C · North Carolina·CHI
±1
Round breakdown
Round 1
30 picks
cohort hits
29 / 30
avg |Δ|
4
Round 2
29 picks
cohort hits
21 / 60
avg |Δ|
12
- 1WSHSFOur #1
AJ Dybantsa
BYU·Developmental wing
exact
pick − rank
- 2UTAHPG/SGOur #2
Darryn Peterson
Kansas·Two-way wing
exact
pick − rank
- 3MEMPF/COur #3
Cameron Boozer
Duke·Skilled big
exact
pick − rank
- 4CHIPF/COur #5
Caleb Wilson
North Carolina·Skilled big
-1
pick − rank
- 5LACvia INDPG/SGOur #12
Keaton Wagler
Illinois·Lead playmaker
-7
pick − rank
- 6BKNPGOur #7
Mikel Brown Jr.
Louisville·Lead playmaker
-1
pick − rank
- 7SACPGOur #6
Darius Acuff Jr.
Arkansas·Lead playmaker
+1
pick − rank
- 8ATLvia NOPGOur #8
Kingston Flemings
Houston·Lead playmaker
exact
pick − rank
- 9DALPF/COur #10
Morez Johnson Jr.
Michigan·Rim-running big
-1
pick − rank
- 10MILSGOur #16
Brayden Burries
Arizona·Developmental wing
-6
pick − rank
- 11GSPF/COur #11
Yaxel Lendeborg
Michigan·Skilled big
exact
pick − rank
- 12OKCvia LACCOur #4
Aday Mara
Michigan·Skilled big
+8
pick − rank
- 13MIATraded to MILSF/PFOur #17
Nate Ament
Tennessee·Two-way wing
-4
pick − rank
- 14CHAPF/COur #14
Hannes Steinbach
Washington·Skilled big
exact
pick − rank
- 15CHIvia PORSG/SFOur #26
Dailyn Swain
Texas·Developmental wing
-11
pick − rank
- 16MEMTraded to OKCPGOur #24
Bennett Stirtz
Iowa·Lead playmaker
-8
pick − rank
- 17OKCTraded to DET via MEMPGOur #25
Ebuka Okorie
Stanford·Lead playmaker
-8
pick − rank
- 18CHAfrom ORL via PHXPGOur #15
Christian Anderson
Texas Tech·Lead playmaker
+3
pick − rank
- 19TORPFOur #23
Allen Graves
Santa Clara·Skilled big
-4
pick − rank
- 20SAvia ATLCOur #19
Jayden Quaintance
Kentucky·Developmental big
+1
pick − rank
- 21KLDETTraded to MEMSF/PFOur #13
Karim Lopez
New Zealand Breakers·Developmental wing
+8
pick − rank
- 22PHIfrom HOU via OKCPGOur #9
Labaron Philon Jr.
Alabama·Lead playmaker
+13
pick − rank
- 23ATLvia CLEPF/COur #30
Zuby Ejiofor
St. John's·Rim-running big
-7
pick − rank
- 24NYTraded to LALSG/SFOur #22
Cameron Carr
Baylor·Switchable wing scorer
+2
pick − rank
- 25LALTraded to DAL via NYKPG/SGOur #29
Sergio de Larrea
Valencia·Developmental guard
-4
pick − rank
- 26DENTraded to SACOur #20
Tarris Reed Jr.
UConn·Skilled big
+6
pick − rank
- 27BOSPF/COur #18
Chris Cenac Jr.
Houston·Developmental big
+9
pick − rank
- 28MINTraded to BKNSF/PFOur #28
Joshua Jefferson
Iowa State·Two-way wing
exact
pick − rank
- 29CLETraded to SACSF/PFOur #32
Alex Karaban
UConn·Developmental wing
-3
pick − rank
- 30DALTraded to PHX via NYKPF/SFOur #27
Koa Peat
Arizona·Developmental wing
+3
pick − rank
- 31NYTraded to HOUPGOur #35
Bruce Thornton
Ohio State·Lead playmaker
-4
pick − rank
- 32MEMfrom IND via MILSG/SFOur #36
Richie Saunders
BYU·Developmental wing
-4
pick − rank
- 33BKNTraded to MINSGOur #21
Isaiah Evans
Duke·Two-way wing
+12
pick − rank
- 34SACTraded to CLESG/PGOur #33
Meleek Thomas
Arkansas·Developmental guard
+1
pick − rank
- 35SATraded to DENPF/COur #57
Trevon Brazile
Arkansas·Developmental big
-22
pick − rank
- 36LACfrom MEM via ATL and UTAPF/COur #41
Baba Miller
Cincinnati·Developmental big
-5
pick − rank
- 37OKCTraded to MIASGOur #38
Ryan Conwell
Louisville·Developmental guard
-1
pick − rank
- 38CHITraded to INDPGOur #39
Braden Smith
Purdue·Lead playmaker
-1
pick − rank
- 39HOUTraded to NYKPG/SGOur #31
Jack Kayil
Alba Berlin·Developmental guard
+8
pick − rank
- 40BOSfrom MIL via ORLPFOur #70
Dillon Mitchell
St. John's·Developmental big
-30
pick − rank
- 41MIATraded to OKCSG/SFOur #48
Otega Oweh
Kentucky·Developmental guard
-7
pick − rank
- 42SAfrom POR via NOPGOur #40
Ja'Kobi Gillespie
Tennessee·Lead playmaker
+2
pick − rank
- 43BKNfrom LAC via HOUPFOur #66
Tyler Bilodeau
UCLA·Developmental big
-23
pick − rank
- 44SAfrom MIA via INDPF/COur #43
Maliq Brown
Duke·Developmental wing
+1
pick − rank
- 45SACfrom CHA via SA, ATL and NYKSGOur #51
Emanuel Sharp
Houston·Developmental guard
-6
pick − rank
- 46ORLTraded to WSHCOur #58
Felix Okpara
Tennessee·Developmental big
-12
pick − rank
- 47PHXTraded to NYKSGOur #63
Tyler Nickel
Vanderbilt·Developmental wing
-16
pick − rank
- 48DALfrom PHX via WSHPFOur #71
Tobi Lawal
Virginia Tech·Developmental big
-23
pick − rank
- 49DENfrom ATL via BKN and GSSF/PFOur #52
Bryce Hopkins
St. John's·Developmental wing
-3
pick − rank
- 50TORPGOur #42
Jaden Bradley
Arizona·Developmental guard
+8
pick − rank
- 51WSHTraded to ORLPF/COur #37
Izaiyah Nelson
South Florida·Rim-running big
+14
pick − rank
- 52LACTraded to ATLCOur #34
Henri Veesaar
North Carolina·Skilled big
+18
pick − rank
- 53HOUTraded to DET via NYKCOur #44
Ugonna Onyenso
Virginia·Developmental big
+9
pick − rank
- 54GSfrom LAL via TOR, MIA and CLESG/SFOur #97
Lajae Jones
Florida State·Defensive specialist
-43
pick − rank
- 55NYTraded to LAC via HOUSF/PFOur #45
Nick Martinelli
Northwestern·Developmental wing
+10
pick − rank
- 56CHITraded to DAL via LALSG/SFOur #56
Vsevolod Ishchenko
Lokomotiv Kuban·Developmental guard
exact
pick − rank
- 58NOfrom DET via NYK, BKN, PHX, ORL and LACSGOur #80
Jaron Pierre Jr.
SMU·Developmental wing
-22
pick − rank
- 59MINfrom SA via INDPF/COur #77
Trey Kaufman-Renn
Purdue·Skilled big
-18
pick − rank
- 60MLWSHTraded to MIL via ORLSFOur #76
Malique Lewis
Southeast Melbourne·Developmental wing
-16
pick − rank
This receipt is permanent — it stays up win or lose, misses named next to the hits. That's the point.
Pre-order interest · no billing, just a headcount
The 2027 Draft Guide — graded, honest, ~$15 next April
Our final board, the misses named alongside the hits, and pick-by-pick grades on draft night. Join the list and you'll get it first and cheapest — if enough hands go up to justify writing it. No card, no commitment.