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PF/C#3 of 32 bigs in 2026· Projected R1
Caleb Wilson
Skilled big
North Carolina·6'9" · 211lb·7'0" wing·9'0" reach·9.0" hand·19.9 yo at draft
LotteryRare outlier
ATH composite
65
NCAA dominance
88
Scoring
88
Playmaking
97
Defense
73
Shooting
83
Combine
Max vertical
39.5"p97
Lane agility
11.17sp85
¾ sprint
3.23sp79
Standing reach
108.0"p49
Draft score 90 out of 100, overall rank 5, elite statistical outlier.
Data completeness
grade A · 100/1007/7 combine drills · D1 stats matched (6/6) · 3 mock boards · birthdate known
measures the data backing this profile — not confidence in the ranking
Skill signature · earned from the data
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionBall HawkSTL 88th · classBouncy39.5" max vert · 86thFloor GeneralAST 78th · low TO
The read · from the percentiles
auto-derived · 2026 classSkilled big. Carried by shot creation (91st) and passing (78th); no glaring statistical hole.
StrengthsShot creation91Passing78
Why this rank
Editorial pin
Our scouting call slots Wilson at #5 — the deterministic model alone had Wilson at #3.
Rare
Rare outlier — top 5% draft score
Draft outlook
Where the math lands them
Projected landing
#5
LA Clippers
1st roundModel vs the field
The One
#5
Field
#4
In line with the field — our board and the consensus agree within a couple of slots.
across 3 mock boards
Scouting summary
Skilled big profile. The loudest scout signal: elite bpm (BPM = 99th pct). Their NCAA dominance composite lands at 88 on a 100 scale. Mock consensus pegs them 4th across 3 boards.
Auto-generated from archetype + top deterministic chip · long-form narrative ships when the generator's AI pass is enabled.
Our board over time
Where we've had him since May 30
now#5▼ Faller · down 2
May 30 · #3Jul 27 · #5
How the score is built
deterministic · auditable90.4draft scoreboard #5
Market 62% · consensus 4th / 3 boardsModel 38% · ranked 4th
Our blend weights the mock-consensus board 62% and our deterministic, age-adjusted model 38% — the market had Wilson 4th, our model 4th. The model's own dominance / production / athletic split is in the card above.
Draft score breakdown
How the 90-point composite stacks up
Athletic compositeweight 40%65
NCAA dominanceweight 40%88
Mock consensusweight 20%96
avg rank 4 across 3 boards
Consensus floor applied: 92 (top-15 multi-source override)
Deterministic signals · v1 rules
- +6
Elite BPM
BPM = 99th pct
- +5
Elite vertical
max vertical = 93th pct
- +5
High usage + efficient
USG and TS percentiles both clear the v1 trigger
- +5
Consensus top-5
average consensus rank 4
- -4
Short wingspan for position
wingspan = 22th pct
- +2
Young for class
age 19.9 at draft; class median 22.4
Skill radar · the shape of his game
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionAvg axis 64th · each vertex is a positional percentile in the 2026 class.
Combine radar · vs. B-bucket
7 of 7 drills measured
Wingspan
med 85.8"
84.3"
p26
Standing reach
med 108.0"
108.0"
p49
Max vertical
med 32.5"
39.5"
p97
Standing vert
med 28.5"
34.5"
p97
¾ sprint
med 3.33s
3.23s
p79
Lane agility
med 11.65s
11.17s
p85
Shuttle
med 3.10s
3.11s
p49
Frame & hands · the tape
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionHeight
6'9.3"57
Wingspan diff
+3.0"9
Hand length
9.00"26
Hand width
9.75"39
Wingspan differential = wingspan − barefoot height (the “ape index”); a positive number means longer than tall. Combine measurements, percentile vs the 2026 class at the position.
Combine drills · controlled setting
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionShooting & agility at the combine
Spot-up 3PT
11/25 · 44%33
Off-dribble 3PT
19/30 · 63%86
On-move 3PT
12/25 · 48%43
Modified agility
3.11s19
via stats.nba.com draft combine · shooting at the college 3PT distance (makes / attempts)
Two-way profile · how they play
Synergy · per possession · North Carolina Tar Heels50 / 100 two-way score
Offense
1.22 PPP43
Defense
0.88 allow61
Shot dieteFG 59%3PT rate 9%FT rate 5%
Wilson's offensive + defensive efficiency vs the 2026 class, per Synergy possessions.
NBA comps · measurables + production
vs bigs · 2011–2024Closest NBA comparisons
Matched on combine measurements (length, frame, explosion, agility) and college production (BPM, TS%, usage, assists), within position group. Each comp's tag shows which basis drove it; the college production + career outcome shown belongs to the comp, never projected onto Wilson.
“Top X%” = closer to Wilson than (100−X)% of all drafted bigs on the measurables + production; the bar shows relative closeness among these 5.
- 1Brice Johnson2016top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Fringe NBA · 0.0 career VORP · 21 g
College: North Carolina '16 · TS 64.9 · BPM 11.3
Wing84.3"vs84.5"Weight211 lbvs209 lb¾ sprint3.23svs3.20sStd vert34.5"vs33.5"Max vert39.5"vs38.0"Reach108.0"vs106.5"Ht6'9"vs6'9"Shuttle3.11svs2.94sAgility11.17svs11.88sPORPAG5.3vs5.1BPM12.2vs11.3TS%62.6vs64.9USG%28.8vs24.5Age19.9vs22.0AST%18.1vs9.7 - 2Oso Ighodaro2024top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Too early to grade · 0.8 career VORP · 143 g
College: Marquette '24 · TS 59.0 · BPM 8.4
Max vert39.5"vs39.5"Shuttle3.11svs3.12sAgility11.17svs11.25sStd vert34.5"vs35.0"Ht6'9"vs6'10"Wing84.3"vs83.0"Weight211 lbvs222 lb¾ sprint3.23svs3.09sReach108.0"vs104.5"AST%18.1vs16.1PORPAG5.3vs4.3TS%62.6vs59.0BPM12.2vs8.4Age19.9vs21.9USG%28.8vs21.9 - 3Cody Zeller2013top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · 3.9 career VORP · 552 g
College: Indiana '13 · TS 62.3 · BPM 9.5
Ht6'9"vs6'11"Std vert34.5"vs35.5"¾ sprint3.23svs3.15sAgility11.17svs10.82sMax vert39.5"vs37.5"Wing84.3"vs82.8"Reach108.0"vs106.0"Weight211 lbvs230 lbShuttle3.11svs2.69sPORPAG5.3vs5.2TS%62.6vs62.3Age19.9vs20.7USG%28.8vs26.5BPM12.2vs9.5AST%18.1vs9.4 - 4Jalen Smith2020top 2%
measurables + production · matched on 4 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · 2.4 career VORP · 324 g
College: Maryland '20 · TS 62.6 · BPM 9.7
Ht6'9"vs6'9"Weight211 lbvs225 lbReach108.0"vs110.0"Wing84.3"vs86.3"TS%62.6vs62.6Age19.9vs20.3PORPAG5.3vs5.0BPM12.2vs9.7USG%28.8vs22.6AST%18.1vs6.1 - 5Jon Leuer2011top 2%
measurables + production · matched on 8 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · 2.0 career VORP · 377 g
College: Wisconsin '11 · TS 56.8 · BPM 6.7
Wing84.3"vs84.0"Ht6'9"vs6'10"Agility11.17svs10.82sWeight211 lbvs223 lb¾ sprint3.23svs3.36sMax vert39.5"vs36.5"Reach108.0"vs105.5"Std vert34.5"vs29.5"USG%28.8vs29.4PORPAG5.3vs5.8AST%18.1vs12.8TS%62.6vs56.8Age19.9vs22.1BPM12.2vs6.7
Per-axis gap● near (under ½ SD)● ~1 SD● far (over 1 SD)
Comp outcomes · real careers
12/13 reached the NBAHow the closest comps turned out
1 Starter9 Rotation2 Fringe1 Never reached NBA
Median outcome: Rotation — the typical case among these comps, between the floor and ceiling.
Ceiling
Ed Davis2010
Starter · 6.2 VORP
Floor
Jontay Porter2019
Never reached NBA
The 15 nearest blended comps (2 too recent to grade). These are the comps' own careers — a range of what the profile has become before, not a projection of Wilson.
College teamNorth CarolinaACC#27 T-Rank24-9SOS tough schedule · top 13%via BartTorvik
College stats · 2025-26 season
North Carolina· ACC
24 games · 57% min
labeled PF/C
Efficiency
- TS%62.6%90
- eFG%59.0%84
- USG%28.8%96
- ORTG123.194
- AdjOE141.298
- RIM%72.3%85
Playmaking
- AST%18.1%96
- TO%12.6%78
Defense
- STL%2.8%95
- BLK%4.4%68
- DRTG92.288
- DBPM+6.096
Rebounding
- ORB%10.5%69
- DRB%22.2%85
Composite
- BPM+12.299
- OBPM+6.298
- PORPAG5.399
via BartTorvik · percentiles vs B-bucket of all D1 history (2008-26)
Per-game production · 2025-26
percentile vs D1 2008-25 · at position24 games· 31.3 mpg
Points
19.899
Rebounds
9.498
Assists
2.799
Steals
1.599
Blocks
1.492
ShootingFG 57.8%3PT 25.9%FT 71.3%
per-game · via barttorvik · percentiles vs all D1 2008-25 at the position
Raw per-game counts — not pace-adjusted; ranked against an 18-season D1 reference where elite-tier percentiles are stable across the window.
X-factor · Risk · Scheme fit
Long-form scouting prose ships when the generator's AI narrative pass is enabled. The deterministic chip list above carries the same information as structured signals.
Generated by deterministic-v3-ageadj-consensus · Jun 25, 2026
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