HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
NHL logoNHLHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
Toronto Maple Leafs

Eastern Conference · 15 seed

Toronto Maple Leafs

32-36 · L7 · L10 2-7-1

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Elo rating

#30 of 32

Elo rating 1438.5 · as of 2026-06-15 · nhl_team_ratings

Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Final 5 · 2026

2026-04-08 → 2026-04-15 · Full ATS profile →

LLost by 4 vs WSH, 0-4, 2026-04-08. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 2 at NYI, 3-5, 2026-04-09. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 4 vs FLA, 2-6, 2026-04-11. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 1 vs DAL, 5-6, 2026-04-13. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 2 at OTT, 1-3, 2026-04-15. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 

Stat leaders

Who carries them

Points

  1. 1William Nylander65 GP79
  2. 2John Tavares82 GP71
  3. 3Matthew Knies79 GP66
  4. 4Auston Matthews60 GP53
  5. 5Oliver Ekman-Larsson78 GP39

Goals

  1. 1John Tavares82 GP31
  2. 2William Nylander65 GP30
  3. 3Auston Matthews60 GP27
  4. 4Matthew Knies79 GP23
  5. 5Nicholas Robertson78 GP16

Assists

  1. 1William Nylander65 GP49
  2. 2Matthew Knies79 GP43
  3. 3John Tavares82 GP40
  4. 4Oliver Ekman-Larsson78 GP31
  5. 5Auston Matthews60 GP26

Power-play goals

  1. 1John Tavares82 GP12
  2. 2William Nylander65 GP7
  3. 3Matthew Knies79 GP6
  4. 4Auston Matthews60 GP5
  5. 5Max Domi80 GP2

Save percentage

  1. 1Dennis Hildeby14 GS.914
  2. 2Anthony Stolarz25 GS.893
  3. 3Samuel Ersson29 GS.870

Min 10 starts.

Goals against average

  1. 1Dennis Hildeby14 GS2.86
  2. 2Samuel Ersson29 GS3.12
  3. 3Anthony Stolarz25 GS3.28

Min 10 starts.

2025-26 regular season · NHL club-stats API (api-web.nhle.com) · counting boards ungated; goalie SV% / GAA min 10 starts

Period identity

When they score

Pattern by period

12 games · for vs against

0.51.01.52.0P1 · 0.75 for / 1.00 against · margin -0.25P1P2 · 0.83 for / 1.67 against · margin -0.83P2P3 · 1.17 for / 1.75 against · margin -0.58P3PERIODS · LAST 12 GAMES
ForAgainst

2.8 avg / 4.4 allowed

Scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 2.8 goals

2579AVG 2.8061924354567GOALS PER GAME

Form heatmap

The margin trail

Margin trail

Last 30 games · 2026-01-28 → 2026-04-15

Record

8-22

Win pct

26.7%

Avg margin

-1.3

Longest W

3

Longest L

8

Upset wins

7

Favorite losses

5

2026-01-28 · vs BUF · L 4-7 · model gave 50%BUF2026-01-30 · @ SEA · L 2-5 · model gave 42%SEA2026-02-01 · @ VAN · W 3-2 · model gave 49%VAN2026-02-03 · @ CGY · W 4-2 · model gave 45%CGY2026-02-04 · @ EDM · W 5-2 · model gave 41%EDM2026-02-26 · @ TB · L 2-4 · model gave 31%TB2026-02-27 · @ FLA · L 1-5 · model gave 42%FLA2026-03-01 · vs OTT · L 2-5 · model gave 55%OTT2026-03-03 · vs PHI · L 2-3 · model gave 57%PHI2026-03-05 · @ NJ · L 3-4 · model gave 41%NJ2026-03-06 · @ NYR · L 2-6 · model gave 46%NYR2026-03-08 · vs TB · L 2-5 · model gave 44%TB2026-03-10 · @ MTL · L 1-3 · model gave 35%MTL2026-03-12 · vs ANA · W 6-4 · model gave 49%ANA2026-03-14 · @ BUF · L 2-3 · model gave 30%BUF2026-03-15 · @ MIN · W 4-2 · model gave 33%MIN2026-03-17 · vs NYI · L 1-3 · model gave 49%NYI2026-03-20 · vs CAR · L 3-4 · model gave 45%CAR2026-03-21 · @ OTT · L 2-5 · model gave 35%OTT2026-03-24 · @ BOS · W 4-2 · model gave 34%BOS2026-03-25 · vs NYR · W 4-3 · model gave 58%NYR2026-03-28 · @ STL · L 1-5 · model gave 42%STL2026-03-31 · @ ANA · W 5-4 · model gave 35%ANA2026-04-03 · @ SJ · L 1-4 · model gave 40%SJ2026-04-04 · @ LA · L 6-7 · model gave 44%LA2026-04-08 · vs WSH · L 0-4 · model gave 51%WSH2026-04-09 · @ NYI · L 3-5 · model gave 35%NYI2026-04-11 · vs FLA · L 2-6 · model gave 53%FLA2026-04-13 · vs DAL · L 5-6 · model gave 42%DAL2026-04-15 · @ OTT · L 1-3 · model gave 31%OTT

Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

82 games · 2025-10-08 → 2026-04-15

Peak 1510 · Now 1441 · Trough 1441

Forwards · 11

Forwards

Auston Matthews

Auston Matthews

C · #34

53 PTS27 G
Bo Groulx

Bo Groulx

C · #29

5 PTS3 G
Calle Jarnkrok

Calle Jarnkrok

C · #19

8 PTS6 G
Dakota Joshua

Dakota Joshua

C · #81

18 PTS10 G
John Tavares

John Tavares

C · #91

71 PTS31 G
Matias Maccelli

Matias Maccelli

LW · #63

39 PTS14 G
Matthew Knies

Matthew Knies

LW · #23

66 PTS23 G
Max Domi

Max Domi

C · #11

36 PTS12 G
Nicholas Robertson

Nicholas Robertson

LW · #89

32 PTS16 G
Steven Lorentz

Steven Lorentz

C · #18

18 PTS7 G
William Nylander

William Nylander

RW · #88

79 PTS30 G

Defensemen · 8

The blue line

Brandon Carlo

Brandon Carlo

D · #25

7 PTS0 G
Chris Tanev

Chris Tanev

D · #8

2 PTS0 G
Emil Andrae

Emil Andrae

D

13 PTS2 G
Jake McCabe

Jake McCabe

D · #22

25 PTS5 G
Morgan Rielly

Morgan Rielly

D · #44

36 PTS11 G
Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Oliver Ekman-Larsson

D · #95

39 PTS8 G
Philippe Myers

Philippe Myers

D · #51

2 PTS0 G
Troy Stecher

Troy Stecher

D · #28

14 PTS3 G

Goalies · 2

In the crease

Anthony Stolarz

Anthony Stolarz

G · #41

Samuel Ersson

Samuel Ersson

G

← All NHL teams

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

65%Last 7 · 60-33
61%Last 30 · 297-187
Receipts →
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Gilbert (SEA): 7.0 IP · 10 K · 1 ER in a win over BAL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 21 PTS · 5 REB · 14 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Salt Lake (PCL) (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Luzardo (PHI): 7.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER in a win over MIA
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Cease (TOR): 5.0 IP · 7 K in a win over BOS
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Placed RHP Brad Keller on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 14 (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBF. Valdez (DET): 6.0 IP · 6 K against HOU
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Boston (IND): 18 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated 3B Santiago Espinal for assignment (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLPredators: Acquired C Ross Colton and G Isak Posch from Colorado for G Magnus Chrona, a 2…
TRANSACTION · NHLCanucks: Signed D Cole Clayton to a one-year contract. (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLMaple Leafs: Acquired G Samuel Ersson, D Emil Andrae and a 2026 third-round pick from Phi…
TONIGHT · WNBANY @ CHI, 6/17 - 8:00 PM EDT — NY -9.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Gilbert (SEA): 7.0 IP · 10 K · 1 ER in a win over BAL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 21 PTS · 5 REB · 14 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Salt Lake (PCL) (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Luzardo (PHI): 7.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER in a win over MIA
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Cease (TOR): 5.0 IP · 7 K in a win over BOS
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Placed RHP Brad Keller on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 14 (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBF. Valdez (DET): 6.0 IP · 6 K against HOU
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Boston (IND): 18 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated 3B Santiago Espinal for assignment (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLPredators: Acquired C Ross Colton and G Isak Posch from Colorado for G Magnus Chrona, a 2…
TRANSACTION · NHLCanucks: Signed D Cole Clayton to a one-year contract. (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLMaple Leafs: Acquired G Samuel Ersson, D Emil Andrae and a 2026 third-round pick from Phi…
TONIGHT · WNBANY @ CHI, 6/17 - 8:00 PM EDT — NY -9.5

Model picks on TOR

Below the 30-pick gate (n=5)