NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1LA

TOR

32-31-14

31-26-19

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriesLA wins series 2-0VegasLA -205

Recap · NHL

os Angeles Kings held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 7–6 in overtime.

TOR +1.5 cashed (LA won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

Matthew Knies

LW · #23

4Points

—

SOG

LA · top performer

Adrian Kempe

RW · #9

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
E. CowanRW · #53	1	0	-3	3	3	0	2	18:06
M. DomiC · #11	0	1	-1	2	1	1	6	14:19
B. GroulxC · #29	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	15:48
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	15:51
D. JoshuaC · #81	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	10:38
M. KniesLW · #23	2	2	1	2	3	0	0	19:44
S. LorentzC · #18	1	0	-1	2	3	0	0	10:33
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	11:44
W. NylanderRW · #88	0	1	-4	3	0	0	0	23:24
M. PezzettaLW · #61	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	5:05
N. RobertsonLW · #89	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:14
J. TavaresC · #91	1	2	-1	1	2	0	0	20:21

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	-2	0	4	0	0	14:59
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	19:15
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	-2	2	0	2	0	23:45
P. MyersD · #51	0	0	1	0	1	1	2	16:41
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	22:18
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	-2	0	1	4	0	21:10

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
J. WollG · #60	40	7	33	.825	62:17

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
J. ArmiaRW · #40	0	0	-1	2	0	3	2	13:28
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	2	0	2	3	0	0	0	21:16
S. HeleniusC · #79	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	5:50
A. KempeRW · #9	2	2	1	7	1	1	0	20:02
A. KopitarC · #11	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	21:13
A. LaferriereRW · #14	1	0	0	6	3	1	0	24:10
S. LaughtonC · #21	0	0	-1	1	1	1	2	15:09
J. MalottLW · #39	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	5:18
T. MooreLW · #12	0	2	2	3	0	0	0	20:44
A. PanarinLW · #10	1	2	1	5	0	1	0	22:19
T. WardRW · #52	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	5:17
J. WrightRW · #53	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	10:40

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
M. AndersonD · #44	0	1	3	1	2	0	4	21:48
C. CeciD · #5	0	1	0	1	2	1	0	12:46
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	1	-1	1	0	1	0	20:11
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	0	3	1	3	1	0	29:20
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	13:28
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	15:48

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
D. KuemperG · #35	20	6	14	.700	62:33

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

LA wins series 2-0

Nov 14

LA4@

TOR3

Apr 4

TOR6@

LA7today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+17037%

LA-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 41 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat TOR 7-6.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
TOR	2	2	2	0	6
LA	0	3	3	1	7

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · LA won 3

TOR

Play-by-play · 329 plays

period

event

player

OT·2:33
Game End
TOR 6·LA 7
OT·2:33
End of OT
TOR 6·LA 7
OT·2:33
Quinton Byfield Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (53), Adrian Kempe (37)
· ·
TOR 6·LA 7
OT·2:20
William Nylander Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
TOR 6·LA 6
OT·2:14
Adrian Kempe Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 6·LA 6
OT·2:04
Artemi Panarin Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
TOR 6·LA 6
OT·1:16
Quinton Byfield shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
·
TOR 6·LA 6
OT·1:07
Drew Doughty hit Matthew Knies
·
TOR 6·LA 6
OT·0:50
Drew Doughty Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 6·LA 6
OT·0:42
Giveaway by Drew Doughty
TOR 6·LA 6
OT·0:20
Artemi Panarin Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 6·LA 6
OT·0:00
Scott Laughton faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 6·LA 6
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·19:32
Takeaway by Jared Wright
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·18:43
Brandon Carlo shot blocked by John Tavares
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·17:24
Calle Jarnkrok faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·17:24
Goalie Stopped
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·17:22
Artemi Panarin Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·17:17
Mikey Anderson shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·17:12
Adrian Kempe Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·17:11
Mikey Anderson Slap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·17:03
Adrian Kempe Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·16:53
Giveaway by John Tavares
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·16:47
Philippe Myers Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·16:23
Brandt Clarke shot blocked by Alex Laferriere
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·16:11
Takeaway by Brandt Clarke
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·15:47
Scott Laughton shot blocked by Troy Stecher
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·14:50
Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by Artemi Panarin
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·14:32
Adrian Kempe Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
TOR 6·LA 6

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +170/LA -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE

Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
SHOT MPH94.596
Philippe MyersTOR · D
SHOT MPH99.395
Jake McCabeTOR · D
DIST MI253.292
Morgan RiellyTOR · D
BURSTS7190
Simon BenoitTOR · D
BURSTS7090

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.7%

ensemble · LA favored

Elo Static
56.2%
P(LA win)
45%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.2%
P(LA win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
57.2%
P(LA win)
45%
weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+170

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

LA vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 117 high confidence

Shots on goal

Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
Alex LaferriereLA
3.0± 1.6high
Quinton ByfieldLA
3.0± 2.2high

Goals

Adrian KempeLA
0.5± 0.7high
John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high
William NylanderTOR
0.5± 0.7high

Points

William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high
John TavaresTOR
1.0± 1.1high
Alex LaferriereLA
0.8± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands