Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at LA?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1LA

TOR

32-31-14

31-26-19

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriesLA wins series 2-0VegasLA -205

TOR · top performer

Matthew Knies

LW · #23

4Points

—

SOG

LA · top performer

Adrian Kempe

RW · #9

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	1	0	-3	3	3	0	2	18:06
M. DomiC · #11	0	1	-1	2	1	1	6	14:19
B. GroulxC · #29	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	15:48
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	15:51
D. JoshuaC · #81	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	10:38
M. KniesLW · #23	2	2	1	2	3	0	0	19:44
S. LorentzC · #18	1	0	-1	2	3	0	0	10:33
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	11:44
W. NylanderRW · #88	0	1	-4	3	0	0	0	23:24
M. PezzettaLW · #61	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	5:05
N. RobertsonLW · #89	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:14
J. TavaresC · #91	1	2	-1	1	2	0	0	20:21

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	-2	0	4	0	0	14:59
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	19:15
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	-2	2	0	2	0	23:45
P. MyersD · #51	0	0	1	0	1	1	2	16:41
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	22:18
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	-2	0	1	4	0	21:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WollG · #60	40	7	33	.825	62:17

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ArmiaRW · #40	0	0	-1	2	0	3	2	13:28
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	2	0	2	3	0	0	0	21:16
S. HeleniusC · #79	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	5:50
A. KempeRW · #9	2	2	1	7	1	1	0	20:02
A. KopitarC · #11	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	21:13
A. LaferriereRW · #14	1	0	0	6	3	1	0	24:10
S. LaughtonC · #21	0	0	-1	1	1	1	2	15:09
J. MalottLW · #39	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	5:18
T. MooreLW · #12	0	2	2	3	0	0	0	20:44
A. PanarinLW · #10	1	2	1	5	0	1	0	22:19
T. WardRW · #52	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	5:17
J. WrightRW · #53	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	10:40

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	0	1	3	1	2	0	4	21:48
C. CeciD · #5	0	1	0	1	2	1	0	12:46
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	1	-1	1	0	1	0	20:11
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	0	3	1	3	1	0	29:20
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	13:28
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	15:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. KuemperG · #35	20	6	14	.700	62:33

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

LA wins series 2-0

Nov 14

LA4@

TOR3

Apr 4

TOR6@

LA7today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+17037%

LA-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 76 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat TOR 7-6. A. Kempe led the way — 2 G · 2 A · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
TOR	2	2	2	0	6
LA	0	3	3	1	7

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · LA won 3

TOR

Play-by-play · 329 plays

period

event

player

OT·2:33
Game End
TOR 6·LA 7
OT·2:33
End of OT
TOR 6·LA 7
OT·2:33
Quinton Byfield Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (53), Adrian Kempe (37)
· ·
TOR 6·LA 7
OT·2:20
William Nylander Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
TOR 6·LA 6
OT·2:14
Adrian Kempe Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 6·LA 6
OT·2:04
Artemi Panarin Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
TOR 6·LA 6
OT·1:16
Quinton Byfield shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
·
TOR 6·LA 6
OT·1:07
Drew Doughty hit Matthew Knies
·
TOR 6·LA 6
OT·0:50
Drew Doughty Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 6·LA 6
OT·0:42
Giveaway by Drew Doughty
TOR 6·LA 6
OT·0:20
Artemi Panarin Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 6·LA 6
OT·0:00
Scott Laughton faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 6·LA 6
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·19:32
Takeaway by Jared Wright
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·18:43
Brandon Carlo shot blocked by John Tavares
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·17:24
Calle Jarnkrok faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·17:24
Goalie Stopped
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·17:22
Artemi Panarin Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·17:17
Mikey Anderson shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·17:12
Adrian Kempe Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·17:11
Mikey Anderson Slap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·17:03
Adrian Kempe Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·16:53
Giveaway by John Tavares
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·16:47
Philippe Myers Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·16:23
Brandt Clarke shot blocked by Alex Laferriere
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·16:11
Takeaway by Brandt Clarke
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·15:47
Scott Laughton shot blocked by Troy Stecher
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·14:50
Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by Artemi Panarin
·
TOR 6·LA 6
3rd·14:32
Adrian Kempe Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
TOR 6·LA 6

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +170/LA -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

os Angeles Kings held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 7–6 in overtime.

TOR +1.5 cashed (LA won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Alex Laferriere · LAK24:121.4870.7%77.7%24:12 TOI · 1.48 iXG · 70.7% CF · 77.7% xGF
Adrian Kempe · LAK20:060.8879.5%76.6%20:06 TOI · 0.88 iXG · 79.5% CF · 76.6% xGF
Artemi Panarin · LAK22:240.5879.2%77.9%22:24 TOI · 0.58 iXG · 79.2% CF · 77.9% xGF
Quinton Byfield · LAK21:300.4669.8%75.4%21:30 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 69.8% CF · 75.4% xGF
Anze Kopitar · LAK21:060.4578.7%78.7%21:06 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 78.7% CF · 78.7% xGF
#848415818:180.4134.9%26.9%18:18 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 34.9% CF · 26.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Joseph Woll · PHI33–7.825-3.0133–7 · .825 SV% · -3.01 GSAx
Darcy Kuemper · LAK14–6.700-3.8714–6 · .700 SV% · -3.87 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
56.2%
P(LA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.2%
P(LA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
56.2%
P(LA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+170

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at LA?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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