NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2TOR

TOR

26-21-9

CGY

22-27-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Feb 2FinalSeriesTOR wins series 2-0VegasTOR -122

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs went into Calgary Flames and beat them, 4–2.

TOR -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

William Nylander

RW · #88

3Points

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

Joel Farabee

LW · #86

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

TOR26-21-9

CGY22-27-6

TOR26-21-9CGY22-27-6

TOR

26-21-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

CGY

22-27-6

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

TOR wins series 2-0

Oct 28

CGY3@

TOR4

Feb 3

TOR4@

CGY2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR-12255%

CGY+10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat CGY 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	1	2	1	4
CGY	0	2	0	2

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · CGY won 0

TOR

CGY

Play-by-play · 288 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 4·CGY 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 4·CGY 2
3rd·19:35
John Tavares faceoff won against Connor Zary
·
TOR 4·CGY 2
3rd·19:35
Bobby McMann Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (3), Brandon Carlo (5)
· ·
TOR 4·CGY 2
3rd·19:13
Zayne Parekh shot blocked by Jake McCabe
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·18:56
Matt Coronato shot blocked by Nicolas Roy
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·18:53
Nazem Kadri faceoff won against Nicolas Roy
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·18:53
Icing
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·18:46
Nicolas Roy faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·18:46
Icing
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·18:25
Zayne Parekh shot blocked by Jake McCabe
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·18:11
Morgan Frost Wrap-around saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·18:08
MacKenzie Weegar shot blocked by Nicolas Roy
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·17:54
Giveaway by Mikael Backlund
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·17:28
Yegor Sharangovich shot blocked by Auston Matthews
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·17:25
Adam Klapka shot blocked by Simon Benoit
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·17:16
Max Domi Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·17:11
Giveaway by Zach Whitecloud
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·17:07
Brandon Carlo hit Kevin Bahl
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·16:27
John Tavares faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·16:27
Icing
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·16:17
Auston Matthews faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·16:17
Goalie Stopped
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·16:15
Matt Coronato Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·16:06
Philippe Myers hit Yegor Sharangovich
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·15:55
Matt Coronato Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·15:25
Takeaway by Auston Matthews
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·15:15
Auston Matthews faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·15:15
Goalie Stopped
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·15:12
Zayne Parekh Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 3·CGY 2

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR -122/CGY +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE

Bobby McMannSEA · C
SKATE MPH24.399
Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
SHOT MPH100.297
Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
SHOT MPH94.596
Philippe MyersTOR · D
SHOT MPH99.395
Mikael BacklundCGY · C
SHOT MPH93.594

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CGY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+102

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

CGY vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 111 high confidence

Shots on goal

Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
Blake ColemanCGY
2.7± 1.6high
William NylanderTOR
2.7± 2.3high

Goals

John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high
William NylanderTOR
0.5± 0.7high
Blake ColemanCGY
0.4± 0.7high

Points

William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high
John TavaresTOR
1.0± 1.1high
Matt CoronatoCGY
0.8± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands