Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at CGY?

The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2TOR

TOR

26-21-9

CGY

22-27-6

NHLMon, Feb 2FinalSeriesTOR wins series 2-0VegasTOR -122

TOR · top performer

William Nylander

RW · #88

3Points

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

Nazem Kadri

C · #91

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	14:28
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	11:21
M. KniesLW · #23	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	14:45
S. LaughtonC · #24	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	14:06
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	10:53
M. MaccelliLW · #63	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:33
A. MatthewsC · #34	0	1	2	2	0	2	0	16:35
B. McMannC · #74	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	14:54
W. NylanderRW · #88	1	2	1	3	0	0	0	17:00
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:15
N. RoyC · #55	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	15:16
J. TavaresC · #91	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	16:45

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	0	2	3	4	0	18:56
B. CarloD · #25	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	21:19
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	18:31
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	1	0	1	5	0	23:46
P. MyersD · #51	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	17:29
T. StecherD · #28	1	0	1	4	0	3	0	20:08

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WollG · #60	30	2	28	.933	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	16:16
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	0	-1	7	0	0	0	19:27
J. FarabeeLW · #86	1	1	0	2	0	1	0	15:59
M. FrostC · #16	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	15:53
M. GridinRW · #92	0	0	-3	4	0	1	0	16:24
J. HuberdeauLW · #10	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	14:26
N. KadriC · #91	1	1	0	3	1	1	0	19:15
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	10:43
R. LombergLW · #70	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	10:35
M. PospisilC · #76	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	8:59
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	18:49
C. ZaryC · #47	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	14:46

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	20:59
J. HanleyD · #44	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	16:36
Y. KuznetsovD · #37	0	0	-1	2	2	2	0	18:20
Z. ParekhD · #19	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	20:05
M. WeegarD · #52	0	1	-1	0	0	2	0	20:59
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	20:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. WolfG · #32	21	3	18	.857	58:41

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

TOR wins series 2-0

Oct 28

CGY3@

TOR4

Feb 3

TOR4@

CGY2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR-12255%

CGY+10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 26 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat CGY 4-2. W. Nylander led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	1	2	1	4
CGY	0	2	0	2

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · CGY won 0

TOR

CGY

Play-by-play · 288 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 4·CGY 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 4·CGY 2
3rd·19:35
John Tavares faceoff won against Connor Zary
·
TOR 4·CGY 2
3rd·19:35
Bobby McMann Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (3), Brandon Carlo (5)
· ·
TOR 4·CGY 2
3rd·19:13
Zayne Parekh shot blocked by Jake McCabe
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·18:56
Matt Coronato shot blocked by Nicolas Roy
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·18:53
Nazem Kadri faceoff won against Nicolas Roy
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·18:53
Icing
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·18:46
Nicolas Roy faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·18:46
Icing
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·18:25
Zayne Parekh shot blocked by Jake McCabe
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·18:11
Morgan Frost Wrap-around saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·18:08
MacKenzie Weegar shot blocked by Nicolas Roy
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·17:54
Giveaway by Mikael Backlund
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·17:28
Yegor Sharangovich shot blocked by Auston Matthews
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·17:25
Adam Klapka shot blocked by Simon Benoit
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·17:16
Max Domi Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·17:11
Giveaway by Zach Whitecloud
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·17:07
Brandon Carlo hit Kevin Bahl
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·16:27
John Tavares faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·16:27
Icing
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·16:17
Auston Matthews faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·16:17
Goalie Stopped
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·16:15
Matt Coronato Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·16:06
Philippe Myers hit Yegor Sharangovich
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·15:55
Matt Coronato Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·15:25
Takeaway by Auston Matthews
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·15:15
Auston Matthews faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·15:15
Goalie Stopped
TOR 3·CGY 2
3rd·15:12
Zayne Parekh Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 3·CGY 2

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR -122/CGY +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs went into Calgary Flames and beat them, 4–2.

TOR -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.8%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
55.2%
P(CGY win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.2%
P(CGY win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.2%
P(CGY win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+102

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at CGY?: The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

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