NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2TOR

TOR

30-29-13

BOS

39-24-8

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriesBOS wins series 2-1VegasBOS -205

TOR · top performer

Matthew Knies

LW · #23

2Points

—

SOG

BOS · top performer

Morgan Geekie

C · #39

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	17:45
M. DomiC · #11	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:29
B. GroulxC · #29	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	15:43
D. JoshuaC · #81	0	0	0	5	2	0	7	12:58
M. KniesLW · #23	2	0	1	4	2	0	2	18:21
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	11:27
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:45
W. NylanderRW · #88	1	1	0	6	0	1	0	21:53
M. PezzettaLW · #61	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	5:00
J. QuillanC · #26	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	10:13
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	14:29
J. TavaresC · #91	0	3	0	2	0	0	0	19:30

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	1	2	4	1	0	17:01
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	-1	2	2	0	2	18:20
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	20:20
J. McCabeD · #22	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	23:10
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	18:46
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:59

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. StolarzG · #41	20	2	18	.900	59:51

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	14:27
M. GeekieC · #39	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	20:00
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	6:41
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:31
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:08
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:46
E. LindholmC · #28	1	0	0	2	1	1	0	19:34
F. MintenC · #93	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	19:09
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	0	-1	0	0	0	4	14:26
D. PastrnakRW · #88	0	1	0	3	2	0	0	22:02
L. ReichelLW · #75	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:29
P. ZachaC · #18	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	16:37

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	14:58
H. JokiharjuD · #20	0	1	1	0	0	1	2	16:10
H. LindholmD · #27	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	21:27
M. LohreiD · #6	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	16:40
C. McAvoyD · #73	1	0	-1	1	2	0	0	26:40
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	0	3	2	1	10	15:05

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	34	3	31	.912	59:02

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BOS wins series 2-1

Nov 9

BOS5@

TOR3

Nov 12

TOR3@

BOS5

Mar 24

TOR4@

BOS2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+17037%

BOS-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 56 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat BOS 4-2. M. Knies led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	2	2	4
BOS	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · BOS won 1

TOR

BOS

Play-by-play · 328 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 4·BOS 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:46
Tanner Jeannot hit Simon Benoit
·
TOR 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:38
Sean Kuraly faceoff won against Jacob Quillan
·
TOR 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:38
Matthew Knies Goal (20) Poke, assists: William Nylander (42), John Tavares (35)
· ·
TOR 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:36
William Nylander Snap Shot Hit Right Post
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·18:56
Fraser Minten faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·18:56
Casey Mittelstadt Tripping against Matthew Knies
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·18:52
Brandon Carlo Snap Shot Wide Right
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·18:47
Giveaway by Morgan Geekie
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·18:37
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against John Tavares
· ·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·18:37
Goalie Stopped
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·18:35
Morgan Geekie Tip-In saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·18:14
Troy Stecher shot blocked by Nikita Zadorov
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·17:46
Simon Benoit hit Lukas Reichel
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·17:28
William Nylander Snap Shot High and Wide Left
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·17:04
Giveaway by Charlie McAvoy
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·16:55
Takeaway by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·16:42
Giveaway by Matias Maccelli
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·16:12
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Bo Groulx
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·16:12
Puck in Crowd
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·16:10
Morgan Rielly Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·15:46
John Tavares Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·15:38
Mason Lohrei shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·15:35
John Tavares faceoff won against Fraser Minten
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·15:35
Goalie Stopped
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·15:33
Mason Lohrei Snap Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·15:23
Matthew Knies hit Hampus Lindholm
· ·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·15:15
Matthew Knies hit David Pastrnak
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·14:47
Nicholas Robertson hit Charlie McAvoy
·
TOR 3·BOS 2

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +170/BOS -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs went into Boston Bruins and beat them, 4–2.

TOR +1.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

William Nylander · TOR22:120.9471.4%77.9%22:12 TOI · 0.94 iXG · 71.4% CF · 77.9% xGF
Dakota Joshua · TOR13:060.8269.2%66.3%13:06 TOI · 0.82 iXG · 69.2% CF · 66.3% xGF
David Pastrnak · BOS22:120.6350.0%47.5%22:12 TOI · 0.63 iXG · 50.0% CF · 47.5% xGF
Matthew Knies · TOR18:420.5739.4%37.8%18:42 TOI · 0.57 iXG · 39.4% CF · 37.8% xGF
John Tavares · TOR19:360.5374.3%84.1%19:36 TOI · 0.53 iXG · 74.3% CF · 84.1% xGF
Morgan Geekie · BOS20:000.4957.5%54.5%20:00 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 57.5% CF · 54.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jeremy Swayman · BOS31–3.912+1.2231–3 · .912 SV% · +1.22 GSAx
Anthony Stolarz · TOR18–2.900+0.3318–2 · .900 SV% · +0.33 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.0%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
66.0%
P(BOS win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
66.0%
P(BOS win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
66.0%
P(BOS win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

Toronto Maple LeafsBoston Bruins

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