NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2TOR

TOR

30-29-13

BOS

39-24-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriesBOS wins series 2-1VegasBOS -205

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs went into Boston Bruins and beat them, 4–2.

TOR +1.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

John Tavares

C · #91

3Points

—

SOG

BOS · top performer

Morgan Geekie

C · #39

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

TOR30-29-13

BOS39-24-8

TOR30-29-13BOS39-24-8

TOR

30-29-13

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

BOS

39-24-8

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

BOS wins series 2-1

Nov 9

BOS5@

TOR3

Nov 12

TOR3@

BOS5

Mar 24

TOR4@

BOS2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+17037%

BOS-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat BOS 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	2	2	4
BOS	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · BOS won 1

TOR

BOS

Play-by-play · 328 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 4·BOS 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:46
Tanner Jeannot hit Simon Benoit
·
TOR 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:38
Sean Kuraly faceoff won against Jacob Quillan
·
TOR 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:38
Matthew Knies Goal (20) Poke, assists: William Nylander (42), John Tavares (35)
· ·
TOR 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:36
William Nylander Snap Shot Hit Right Post
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·18:56
Fraser Minten faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·18:56
Casey Mittelstadt Tripping against Matthew Knies
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·18:52
Brandon Carlo Snap Shot Wide Right
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·18:47
Giveaway by Morgan Geekie
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·18:37
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against John Tavares
· ·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·18:37
Goalie Stopped
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·18:35
Morgan Geekie Tip-In saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·18:14
Troy Stecher shot blocked by Nikita Zadorov
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·17:46
Simon Benoit hit Lukas Reichel
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·17:28
William Nylander Snap Shot High and Wide Left
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·17:04
Giveaway by Charlie McAvoy
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·16:55
Takeaway by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·16:42
Giveaway by Matias Maccelli
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·16:12
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Bo Groulx
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·16:12
Puck in Crowd
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·16:10
Morgan Rielly Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·15:46
John Tavares Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·15:38
Mason Lohrei shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·15:35
John Tavares faceoff won against Fraser Minten
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·15:35
Goalie Stopped
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·15:33
Mason Lohrei Snap Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·15:23
Matthew Knies hit Hampus Lindholm
· ·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·15:15
Matthew Knies hit David Pastrnak
·
TOR 3·BOS 2
3rd·14:47
Nicholas Robertson hit Charlie McAvoy
·
TOR 3·BOS 2

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +170/BOS -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

William NylanderTOR · RW
SKATE MPH23.594
Marat KhusnutdinovBOS · C
SKATE MPH23.092
Jake McCabeTOR · D
DIST MI253.292
Morgan RiellyTOR · D
BURSTS7190
Simon BenoitTOR · D
BURSTS7090

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 111 high confidence

Shots on goal

Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
David PastrnakBOS
3.2± 2.2high
Matthew PoitrasBOS
2.7± 2.8low

Goals

Morgan GeekieBOS
0.6± 0.9high
John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high
William NylanderTOR
0.5± 0.7high

Points

William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high
David PastrnakBOS
1.1± 1.1high
John TavaresTOR
1.0± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands