Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at CHI?

The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CHI

20-9

8384

CHI

11-18

WNBASat, Aug 1FinalSeriesLV wins series 2-1VegasLV -5.5

LV · top performer

A'ja Wilson

C · #22

29.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Sydney Taylor

G · #12

13.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLV ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 89pp · 4th Quarter · 0.9

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. TalbotF · #7	7	2	1-2	—	—	-1	2	0
N. SmithF · #3	31	17	7-11	0-2	3-3	+2	6	0
A. WilsonC · #22	34	36	13-27	1-1	9-12	+1	12	4
C. GrayG · #12	34	5	2-8	0-5	1-2	-8	1	9
J. YoungG · #0	33	18	7-14	3-7	1-1	+2	11	5
Bench
B. TurnerF · #21	13	2	1-1	—	—	-3	2	0
K. BellF · #1	5	0	—	—	—	-1	1	0
J. LoydG · #24	25	3	1-5	1-4	—	+9	2	1
D. EvansG · #11	17	0	0-6	0-3	—	-6	3	2
Team		83	32-74	5-22	14-18		40	21
DNP: C. Parker-Tyus, J. Pissott, M. Yamamoto

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. CardosoC · #10	26	8	4-11	—	0-1	+7	12	2
C. VanderslootG · #22	20	7	3-7	1-2	0-2	+2	8	5
N. CloudG · #9	30	11	4-7	2-3	1-1	+13	1	4
A. CoulibalyG · #35	24	8	2-6	0-1	4-4	+1	3	0
S. TaylorG · #12	30	29	11-27	5-11	2-4	+10	2	2
Bench
E. WilliamsC · #1	21	7	3-7	—	1-2	+3	3	1
R. BanhamG · #24	10	0	0-3	0-2	—	-12	1	3
D. CarringtonG · #7	19	10	3-6	—	4-6	-9	2	0
J. SheldonG · #0	16	4	1-2	0-1	2-2	-2	0	1
G. JaquezG · #11	4	0	0-1	—	—	-8	0	1
Team		84	31-77	8-20	14-22		32	19
DNP: A. Stevens, S. Diggins

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

32-74

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

31-77

FG %

5-22

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-20

14-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LV wins series 2-1

Jun 28

LV107@

CHI99

Jul 4

CHI90@

LV98

Aug 1

LV83@

CHI84today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LV -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

183.5

High-scoring · +18.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LV-23070%

CHI+19034%

5· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LV -5.5↗SpreadBet LV -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

183.5

+2.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat LV 84-83. S. Taylor paced them with 29 PTS, 2 REB, 2 AST. CHI outscored the other side 29-18 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs LV

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LVstarters 94% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 32 REB · 18 AST

GS 62

Bench(4)

5 PTS · 8 REB · 3 AST

CHIstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 26 REB · 13 AST

GS 45

Bench(5)

21 PTS · 6 REB · 6 AST

GS 12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI4th Quarter · 43.9 · 81-79

+18pp→ 48% WP

Brianna Turner · shooting foul

LV4th Quarter · 3.2 · 83-81

+38pp→ 93% WP

A'ja Wilson · makes driving layup (Chelsea Gray assists)

CHI4th Quarter · 0.9 · 83-84

+89pp→ 96% WP

Sydney Taylor · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Natasha Cloud assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LV	20	20	25	18	83
CHI	16	21	18	29	84

Period scoring

LV won 2 · CHI won 2

Young 10

Cardoso 4

Wilson 7

Taylor 8

Wilson 13

Taylor 5

Wilson 11

Taylor 13

CHI

Shooting comparison

CHI

43%

32-74

40%

31-77

23%

5-22

3PT

40%

8-20

78%

14-18

64%

14-22

Play-by-play · 449 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 83·CHI 84
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 83·CHI 84
+4pp
Q4·0.9
Sydney Taylor makes 23-foot three point jumper (Natasha Cloud assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 83·CHI 84
+89pp
Q4·3.2
Brianna Turner enters the game for Dana Evans
·
LV 83·CHI 81
Q4·3.2
Sydney Taylor enters the game for Aicha Coulibaly
·
LV 83·CHI 81
Q4·3.2
Sky Full timeout
LV 83·CHI 81
Q4·3.2
A'ja Wilson makes driving layup (Chelsea Gray assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 83·CHI 81
−38pp
Q4·7.0
Dana Evans enters the game for Brianna Turner
·
LV 81·CHI 81
Q4·7.0
Aicha Coulibaly enters the game for Sydney Taylor
·
LV 81·CHI 81
Q4·7.0
Aces Full timeout
LV 81·CHI 81
Q4·7.0
Aces Full timeout
LV 81·CHI 81
Q4·7.0
Jackie Young defensive rebound
LV 81·CHI 81
−2pp
Q4·7.6
Sydney Taylor misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
LV 81·CHI 81
−7pp
Q4·26.6
Brianna Turner enters the game for Dana Evans
·
LV 81·CHI 81
Q4·26.6
Sky Full timeout
LV 81·CHI 81
Q4·29.6
Kamilla Cardoso defensive rebound
LV 81·CHI 81
+3pp
Q4·30.9
A'ja Wilson misses 19-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
LV 81·CHI 81
+8pp
Q4·43.9
Dana Evans enters the game for Brianna Turner
·
LV 81·CHI 81
Q4·43.9
Aces Reset Timeout
LV 81·CHI 81
Q4·43.9
DiJonai Carrington makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LV 81·CHI 81
−8pp
Q4·43.9
DiJonai Carrington makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 81·CHI 80
+2pp
Q4·43.9
Brianna Turner shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LV 81·CHI 79
+18pp
Q4·1:00
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LV 81·CHI 79
+9pp
Q4·1:00
Brianna Turner enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
LV 80·CHI 79
Q4·1:00
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 80·CHI 79
+3pp
Q4·1:00
A'ja Wilson misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
LV 80·CHI 79
+6pp
Q4·1:00
Kamilla Cardoso shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LV 80·CHI 79
−10pp
Q4·1:18
Natasha Cloud bad pass turnover (A'ja Wilson steals)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 80·CHI 79
−11pp
Q4·1:28
NaLyssa Smith vs. Elizabeth Williams (Natasha Cloud gains possession)
· ·
LV 80·CHI 79
Q4·1:31
Sky defensive team rebound
LV 80·CHI 79
+2pp

Betting line

LV -5.5·O/U 183.5·LV -230/CHI +190

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

hicago Sky held off Las Vegas Aces, 84–83. It came down to the final possession.

CHI +5.5 cashed (LV lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 183.5 by 16.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CHI

eFG%

shooting

46.6%

45.5%

TOV%

ball control

16.3%

13.0%

OREB%

offensive glass

30.0%

26.2%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

18.9%

18.2%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

NaLyssa SmithLV · F
eFG%.69599+
A'ja WilsonLV · C
USG%.32399+
Jackie YoungLV · G
AST/TO3.396
Kamilla CardosoCHI · C
ORB%.10789
Chelsea GrayLV · G
AST/TO2.183

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

15.3%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
23.6%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
22.6%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
27.5%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.42

CLV pp

Open price

-259

Close price

-250

Open no-vig

69.0%

Close no-vig

68.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at CHI?: The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.9pp

best edge · LV · DraftKings

★ best

-315DraftKings

edge +13.9pp · implied 71.5%

CHI

no live price

Book	LV	CHI	Best edge
DraftKings	-315★	+230	+13.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHI vs LV.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
26.5± 8.1high
Jackie YoungLV
18.7± 8.6high
Sydney TaylorCHI
17.5± 6.0high

Rebounds

A'ja WilsonLV
9.4± 3.9high
Kamilla CardosoCHI
8.5± 3.7high
Azura StevensCHI
7.2± 2.9high

Assists

Chelsea GrayLV
6.9± 2.4high
Jackie YoungLV
6.7± 3.6high
Natasha CloudCHI
5.4± 1.8high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
1.9± 1.1high
Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.4± 1.1high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low

Steals

Courtney VanderslootCHI
1.4± 1.4low
Azura StevensCHI
1.3± 1.1high
A'ja WilsonLV
1.3± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

On the call · WNBA

3 officials

Referee

Fatou Cissoko-Stephens

Referee

Tyler Mirkovich

Referee

Sarah Williams

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Team pages

Las Vegas AcesChicago Sky

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Liberty94Mercury92Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop