Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at OTT?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3OTT

TOR

29-29-13

OTT

36-24-9

NHLSat, Mar 21FinalSeriesOTT leads series 2-1VegasOTT -325

TOR · top performer

Easton Cowan

RW · #53

2Points

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

Claude Giroux

RW · #28

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	18:04
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	14:24
B. GroulxC · #29	0	0	-2	1	2	0	0	13:39
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	9:54
D. JoshuaC · #81	0	0	-2	0	3	0	0	10:47
M. KniesLW · #23	0	0	-2	0	2	0	0	24:28
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	10:30
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	0	-1	2	0	0	2	10:37
W. NylanderRW · #88	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	21:47
J. QuillanC · #26	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	10:16
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	12:25
J. TavaresC · #91	1	0	2	3	0	0	0	18:55

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	1	-1	1	1	1	0	17:12
B. CarloD · #25	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	18:18
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	0	-1	1	2	0	4	23:20
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	-1	0	1	3	0	22:36
P. MyersD · #51	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	13:09
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	21:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WollG · #60	44	5	39	.886	59:34

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	1	0	1	2	0	0	2	15:59
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	1	0	1	4	0	0	15:27
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	11:51
D. CozensC · #24	0	1	2	2	2	2	0	15:25
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	11:59
W. FoegeleLW · #37	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	12:43
C. GirouxRW · #28	1	0	2	7	2	0	0	13:13
R. GreigC · #71	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:07
S. PintoC · #12	0	1	-1	3	0	1	2	18:36
T. StutzleC · #18	1	0	0	3	0	0	2	19:04
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	0	2	3	3	0	0	16:41
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	9:31

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	1	-1	3	1	3	0	28:36
D. GilbertD · #6	0	0	1	0	0	2	2	11:17
T. KlevenD · #43	0	2	2	2	2	1	0	18:13
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	14:20
J. SpenceD · #10	0	2	2	5	0	0	0	19:51
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	24:07

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	14	2	12	.857	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

OTT leads series 2-1

Dec 28

OTT5@

TOR7

Mar 1

OTT5@

TOR2

Mar 21

TOR2@

OTT5today

Apr 15

TOR1@

OTT3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+26028%

OTT-32576%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 51 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat TOR 5-2. C. Giroux led the way — 1 G · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	1	1	2
OTT	1	2	2	5

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · OTT won 3

TOR

OTT

Play-by-play · 309 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·19:42
Takeaway by Warren Foegele
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·19:21
Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·19:21
Icing
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·19:15
Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Nick Cousins
·
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·19:15
Goalie Stopped
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·19:13
Artem Zub Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·19:00
Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·19:00
Goalie Stopped
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·18:59
Artem Zub Slap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·18:49
Fabian Zetterlund Deflected Wide Left
·
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·18:20
Fabian Zetterlund hit Brandon Carlo
·
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·18:16
Fabian Zetterlund Snap Shot Wide Right
·
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·18:15
Steven Lorentz hit Warren Foegele
·
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·17:59
Claude Giroux Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·17:35
Claude Giroux Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·17:15
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Bo Groulx
·
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·17:15
On-Ice Official
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·17:03
Brady Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·16:44
Tim Stützle shot blocked by Jake McCabe
·
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·16:30
Brady Tkachuk Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·16:15
Dylan Cozens Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·16:07
Tim Stützle faceoff won against Calle Jarnkrok
·
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·16:07
Oliver Ekman-Larsson Tripping against Michael Amadio
·
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·16:03
Shane Pinto Wrist Shot Wide Right
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·15:55
Claude Giroux faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·15:55
Icing
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·15:44
Giveaway by Artem Zub
TOR 2·OTT 5
3rd·15:41
Claude Giroux faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 2·OTT 5

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +260/OTT -325

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 5–2.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Brady Tkachuk · FLA16:480.6570.3%70.2%16:48 TOI · 0.65 iXG · 70.3% CF · 70.2% xGF
Claude Giroux · OTT13:120.6483.3%83.5%13:12 TOI · 0.64 iXG · 83.3% CF · 83.5% xGF
Dylan Cozens · OTT15:480.6373.5%77.4%15:48 TOI · 0.63 iXG · 73.5% CF · 77.4% xGF
John Tavares · TOR18:540.5150.0%57.0%18:54 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 50.0% CF · 57.0% xGF
Ridly Greig · OTT15:240.4450.0%44.7%15:24 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 50.0% CF · 44.7% xGF
Michael Amadio · OTT16:000.3755.2%61.7%16:00 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 55.2% CF · 61.7% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Linus Ullmark · OTT12–2.857-0.5112–2 · .857 SV% · -0.51 GSAx
Joseph Woll · PHI39–5.886-1.2039–5 · .886 SV% · -1.20 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.0%

ensemble · OTT favored

Elo Static
65.0%
P(OTT win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
65.0%
P(OTT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
65.0%
P(OTT win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+260

Close price

+260

Open no-vig

26.6%

Close no-vig

26.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at OTT?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Toronto Maple LeafsOttawa Senators

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