Live · 9
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FINAL+3OTT
TOR

TOR

29-29-13

25
OTT

OTT

36-24-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 21FinalSeriesOTT leads series 2-1VegasOTT -325

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 5–2.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Easton Cowan

Easton Cowan

RW · #53

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

OTT
Michael Amadio

Michael Amadio

RW · #22

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
5
TOR29-29-13OTT36-24-9
TOR

TOR

29-29-13

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
OTT

OTT

36-24-9

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

8

Season series

OTT leads series 2-1

Dec 28OTTOTT5@TORTOR7
Mar 1OTTOTT5@TORTOR2
Mar 21TORTOR2@OTTOTT5today
Apr 15TORTOR1@OTTOTT3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR+26028%
OTTOTT-32576%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat TOR 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
TOR0112
OTT1225

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · OTT won 3

0
1

1

1
2

2

1
2

3

TOR
OTT

Play-by-play · 309 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  3. 3rd·19:42

    Takeaway by Warren Foegele

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  4. 3rd·19:21

    Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Lars Eller

    ·

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  5. 3rd·19:21

    Icing

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  6. 3rd·19:15

    Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Nick Cousins

    ·

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  7. 3rd·19:15

    Goalie Stopped

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  8. 3rd·19:13

    Artem Zub Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  9. 3rd·19:00

    Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Lars Eller

    ·

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  10. 3rd·19:00

    Goalie Stopped

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  11. 3rd·18:59

    Artem Zub Slap Shot saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  12. 3rd·18:49

    Fabian Zetterlund Deflected Wide Left

    ·

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  13. 3rd·18:20

    Fabian Zetterlund hit Brandon Carlo

    ·

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  14. 3rd·18:16

    Fabian Zetterlund Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  15. 3rd·18:15

    Steven Lorentz hit Warren Foegele

    ·

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  16. 3rd·17:59

    Claude Giroux Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  17. 3rd·17:35

    Claude Giroux Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  18. 3rd·17:15

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against Bo Groulx

    ·

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  19. 3rd·17:15

    On-Ice Official

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  20. 3rd·17:03

    Brady Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  21. 3rd·16:44

    Tim Stützle shot blocked by Jake McCabe

    ·

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  22. 3rd·16:30

    Brady Tkachuk Snap Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  23. 3rd·16:15

    Dylan Cozens Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  24. 3rd·16:07

    Tim Stützle faceoff won against Calle Jarnkrok

    ·

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  25. 3rd·16:07

    Oliver Ekman-Larsson Tripping against Michael Amadio

    ·

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  26. 3rd·16:03

    Shane Pinto Wrist Shot Wide Right

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  27. 3rd·15:55

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against John Tavares

    ·

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  28. 3rd·15:55

    Icing

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  29. 3rd·15:44

    Giveaway by Artem Zub

    TOR 2·OTT 5

  30. 3rd·15:41

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against John Tavares

    ·

    TOR 2·OTT 5

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

14

Shots

44

0.0

PCT

25.0

10

PIM

8

26

Faceoffs W

33

6

Blocks

13

17

Giveaways

14

2

Takeaways

10

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +260/OTT -325

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
    SHOT MPH94.596
  • Philippe MyersTOR · D
    SHOT MPH99.395
  • Nikolas MatinpaloOTT · D
    SKATE MPH22.592
  • Jake McCabeTOR · D
    DIST MI253.292
  • Simon BenoitTOR · D
    BURSTS7090

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · OTT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+260

Close price

+260

Open no-vig

26.6%

Close no-vig

26.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR