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FINAL+3BUF
BUF

BUF

30-17-5

74
TOR

TOR

24-20-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Jan 27FinalSeriesBUF leads series 2-1VegasTOR -118

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 7–4.

BUF +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Tage Thompson

Tage Thompson

C · #72

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

TOR
Max Domi

Max Domi

C · #11

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
7
4
BUF30-17-5TOR24-20-9
BUF

BUF

30-17-5

7
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
TOR

TOR

24-20-9

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

0

PIM

4

Season series

BUF leads series 2-1

Oct 24TORTOR3@BUFBUF5
Oct 25BUFBUF3@TORTOR4
Jan 28BUFBUF7@TORTOR4today
Mar 14TORTOR2@BUFBUF3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF-10250%
TORTOR-11854%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat TOR 7-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF3137
TOR2114

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · TOR won 0

3
2

1

1
1

2

3
1

3

BUF
TOR

Play-by-play · 307 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 7·TOR 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 7·TOR 4

  3. 3rd·19:53

    Steven Lorentz Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 7·TOR 4

  4. 3rd·19:25

    Simon Benoit shot blocked by Peyton Krebs

    ·

    BUF 7·TOR 4

  5. 3rd·19:16

    Calle Jarnkrok faceoff won against Peyton Krebs

    ·

    BUF 7·TOR 4

  6. 3rd·19:16

    Rasmus Dahlin Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none

    BUF 7·TOR 4

  7. 3rd·19:12

    Giveaway by Matias Maccelli

    BUF 6·TOR 4

  8. 3rd·18:37

    Takeaway by Tage Thompson

    BUF 6·TOR 4

  9. 3rd·18:23

    John Tavares Backhand Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 6·TOR 4

  10. 3rd·18:21

    Max Domi Wrist Shot saved by Colten Ellis

    ·

    BUF 6·TOR 4

  11. 3rd·18:09

    Giveaway by Konsta Helenius

    BUF 6·TOR 4

  12. 3rd·18:05

    Auston Matthews Wrist Shot Short

    ·

    BUF 6·TOR 4

  13. 3rd·17:16

    Auston Matthews Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 6·TOR 4

  14. 3rd·17:01

    Takeaway by Jake McCabe

    BUF 6·TOR 4

  15. 3rd·16:13

    Matthew Knies Tip-In saved by Colten Ellis

    ·

    BUF 6·TOR 4

  16. 3rd·14:59

    Scott Laughton faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 6·TOR 4

  17. 3rd·14:59

    Max Domi Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (19), Bobby McMann (12)

    · ·

    BUF 6·TOR 4

  18. 3rd·14:35

    Auston Matthews hit Josh Doan

    ·

    BUF 6·TOR 3

  19. 3rd·14:04

    Scott Laughton hit Josh Doan

    ·

    BUF 6·TOR 3

  20. 3rd·13:59

    Mattias Samuelsson shot blocked by Calle Jarnkrok

    ·

    BUF 6·TOR 3

  21. 3rd·13:55

    Josh Doan Wrist Shot Hit Right Post

    ·

    BUF 6·TOR 3

  22. 3rd·13:49

    Beck Malenstyn hit Troy Stecher

    · ·

    BUF 6·TOR 3

  23. 3rd·13:43

    Steven Lorentz hit Peyton Krebs

    ·

    BUF 6·TOR 3

  24. 3rd·13:39

    Scott Laughton Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    BUF 6·TOR 3

  25. 3rd·13:19

    Simon Benoit hit Beck Malenstyn

    ·

    BUF 6·TOR 3

  26. 3rd·13:00

    Calle Jarnkrok faceoff won against Peyton Krebs

    ·

    BUF 6·TOR 3

  27. 3rd·13:00

    Hand Pass

    BUF 6·TOR 3

  28. 3rd·12:42

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against John Tavares

    ·

    BUF 6·TOR 3

  29. 3rd·12:42

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    BUF 6·TOR 3

  30. 3rd·12:38

    Matias Maccelli Wrist Shot saved by Colten Ellis

    ·

    BUF 6·TOR 3

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

31

Shots

23

50.0

PCT

0.0

0

PIM

4

17

Faceoffs W

35

19

Blocks

13

24

Giveaways

11

5

Takeaways

8

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF -102/TOR -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
    SHOT MPH94.596
  • Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
    DIST MI46.992
  • Jake McCabeTOR · D
    DIST MI253.292
  • Bowen ByramBUF · D
    BURSTS1691

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TOR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR