NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3BUF

BUF

30-17-5

TOR

24-20-9

NHLTue, Jan 27FinalSeriesBUF leads series 2-1VegasTOR -118

BUF · top performer

Rasmus Dahlin

D · #26

5Points

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

Max Domi

C · #11

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	17:02
J. DoanRW · #91	1	0	0	5	0	2	0	17:19
K. HeleniusC · #94	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	16:12
T. KozakC · #48	0	0	1	0	6	0	0	11:20
P. KrebsC · #19	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	11:47
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	11:54
R. McLeodC · #71	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	13:36
N. OstlundC · #86	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	18:33
J. QuinnRW · #22	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:21
T. ThompsonC · #72	1	1	1	2	1	3	0	18:57
A. TuchRW · #89	1	0	2	2	1	1	0	15:44
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:55

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	22:48
R. DahlinD · #26	3	2	2	7	0	1	0	26:24
M. KesselringD · #8	0	0	1	2	1	2	0	15:08
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:17
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	23:02
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	3	2	0	4	2	0	21:41

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. EllisG · #92	18	2	16	.889	47:46
U. LuukkonenG · #1	5	2	3	.600	12:14

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	11:14
M. DomiC · #11	1	2	1	3	1	0	0	15:55
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	11:59
M. KniesLW · #23	1	0	-1	2	3	0	0	17:44
S. LaughtonC · #24	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	15:05
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	0	1	5	0	2	13:04
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	1	-1	3	1	0	0	15:36
A. MatthewsC · #34	1	2	0	3	1	1	0	19:36
B. McMannC · #74	1	1	-1	4	2	0	0	17:40
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	13:17
N. RoyC · #55	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	9:44
J. TavaresC · #91	0	1	-1	0	3	1	0	19:58

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	16:40
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	17:15
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	1	-3	1	0	1	0	21:43
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	21:54
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	20:52
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	19:47

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WollG · #60	30	6	24	.800	58:08

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BUF leads series 2-1

Oct 24

TOR3@

BUF5

Oct 25

BUF3@

TOR4

Jan 28

BUF7@

TOR4today

Mar 14

TOR2@

BUF3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUF-10250%

TOR-11854%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 18 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat TOR 7-4. R. Dahlin led the way — 3 G · 2 A · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
BUF	3	1	3	7
TOR	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · TOR won 0

BUF

TOR

Play-by-play · 307 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
BUF 7·TOR 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BUF 7·TOR 4
3rd·19:53
Steven Lorentz Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
BUF 7·TOR 4
3rd·19:25
Simon Benoit shot blocked by Peyton Krebs
·
BUF 7·TOR 4
3rd·19:16
Calle Jarnkrok faceoff won against Peyton Krebs
·
BUF 7·TOR 4
3rd·19:16
Rasmus Dahlin Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none
BUF 7·TOR 4
3rd·19:12
Giveaway by Matias Maccelli
BUF 6·TOR 4
3rd·18:37
Takeaway by Tage Thompson
BUF 6·TOR 4
3rd·18:23
John Tavares Backhand Wide Left
·
BUF 6·TOR 4
3rd·18:21
Max Domi Wrist Shot saved by Colten Ellis
·
BUF 6·TOR 4
3rd·18:09
Giveaway by Konsta Helenius
BUF 6·TOR 4
3rd·18:05
Auston Matthews Wrist Shot Short
·
BUF 6·TOR 4
3rd·17:16
Auston Matthews Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
BUF 6·TOR 4
3rd·17:01
Takeaway by Jake McCabe
BUF 6·TOR 4
3rd·16:13
Matthew Knies Tip-In saved by Colten Ellis
·
BUF 6·TOR 4
3rd·14:59
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BUF 6·TOR 4
3rd·14:59
Max Domi Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (19), Bobby McMann (12)
· ·
BUF 6·TOR 4
3rd·14:35
Auston Matthews hit Josh Doan
·
BUF 6·TOR 3
3rd·14:04
Scott Laughton hit Josh Doan
·
BUF 6·TOR 3
3rd·13:59
Mattias Samuelsson shot blocked by Calle Jarnkrok
·
BUF 6·TOR 3
3rd·13:55
Josh Doan Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
BUF 6·TOR 3
3rd·13:49
Beck Malenstyn hit Troy Stecher
· ·
BUF 6·TOR 3
3rd·13:43
Steven Lorentz hit Peyton Krebs
·
BUF 6·TOR 3
3rd·13:39
Scott Laughton Tip-In Wide Right
·
BUF 6·TOR 3
3rd·13:19
Simon Benoit hit Beck Malenstyn
·
BUF 6·TOR 3
3rd·13:00
Calle Jarnkrok faceoff won against Peyton Krebs
·
BUF 6·TOR 3
3rd·13:00
Hand Pass
BUF 6·TOR 3
3rd·12:42
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against John Tavares
·
BUF 6·TOR 3
3rd·12:42
Puck Frozen - Goalie
BUF 6·TOR 3
3rd·12:38
Matias Maccelli Wrist Shot saved by Colten Ellis
·
BUF 6·TOR 3

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF -102/TOR -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 7–4.

BUF +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.4%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
50.4%
P(TOR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.4%
P(TOR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.4%
P(TOR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

Buffalo SabresToronto Maple Leafs

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