Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at TOR?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DAL

DAL

49-20-12

TOR

32-35-14

NHLMon, Apr 13FinalSeriesDAL wins series 2-0VegasDAL -192

DAL · top performer

Mavrik Bourque

C · #22

4Points

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

William Nylander

RW · #88

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	14:27
J. BennLW · #14	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	10:24
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	12:34
M. BourqueC · #22	3	1	1	7	1	0	0	15:56
M. BuntingLW · #58	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	14:20
M. DucheneC · #95	0	3	2	2	0	1	0	18:36
R. FaksaC · #12	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:51
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	13:04
A. HyryRW · #25	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	12:44
W. JohnstonC · #53	1	0	-1	3	1	0	0	18:24
M. RantanenRW · #96	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	19:23
J. RobertsonLW · #21	1	1	2	5	0	0	0	19:26

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. CapobiancoD · #20	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:57
T. HarleyD · #55	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	24:24
E. LindellD · #23	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	21:22
I. LyubushkinD · #46	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	16:48
T. MyersD · #57	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	20:46
A. PetrovicD · #28	0	1	0	1	3	0	0	16:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. DeSmithG · #1	27	5	22	.815	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	20:10
M. DomiC · #11	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:40
L. HaymesC · #43	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	12:02
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	9:22
M. KniesLW · #23	0	2	0	1	3	0	0	19:31
S. LorentzC · #18	0	1	0	2	8	0	2	13:19
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	11:51
W. NylanderRW · #88	1	2	-1	3	1	0	0	22:50
J. QuillanC · #26	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	12:26
N. RobertsonLW · #89	1	0	0	6	0	0	0	14:32
J. TavaresC · #91	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	20:03
R. TverbergC · #77	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	9:04

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	1	-1	2	2	2	0	18:27
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	22:30
J. McCabeD · #22	0	1	-1	1	1	1	0	21:14
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	-1	1	0	1	2	17:57
T. StecherD · #28	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	18:41
W. VilleneuveD · #76	0	0	1	2	1	3	0	16:35

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. AkhtyamovG · #70	32	6	27	.844	59:05

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DAL wins series 2-0

Dec 22

TOR1@

DAL5

Apr 13

DAL6@

TOR5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-19266%

TOR+16038%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 99 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat TOR 6-5. M. Bourque led the way — 3 G · 1 A · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DAL	0	3	3	6
TOR	3	0	2	5

Period scoring

DAL won 2 · TOR won 1

DAL

TOR

Play-by-play · 286 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·19:03
Arttu Hyry Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·18:59
John Tavares faceoff won against Radek Faksa
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·18:59
Icing
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·18:47
Radek Faksa faceoff won against John Tavares
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·18:47
Puck in Netting
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·18:45
William Nylander shot blocked by Matt Duchene
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·18:17
Matt Duchene faceoff won against John Tavares
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·18:17
Off-side
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·17:31
Steven Lorentz hit Radek Faksa
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·17:29
Giveaway by Matias Maccelli
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·17:17
Steven Lorentz hit Oskar Bäck
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·17:13
Steven Lorentz hit Radek Faksa
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·17:06
Jacob Quillan hit Kyle Capobianco
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·16:47
Giveaway by Nicholas Robertson
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·16:43
Nicholas Robertson Slap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith
· ·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·16:32
Giveaway by Esa Lindell
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·16:18
Matthew Knies shot blocked by Tyler Myers
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·15:48
Giveaway by Matt Duchene
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·15:44
Jason Robertson Tip-In Wide Right
· ·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·15:39
Matt Duchene Backhand saved by Artur Akhtyamov
· ·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·15:36
Giveaway by John Tavares
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·15:34
Giveaway by Jason Robertson
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·15:28
Jason Robertson shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
· ·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·15:12
Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Ilya Lyubushkin
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·15:11
John Tavares faceoff won against Mavrik Bourque
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·15:11
Icing
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·14:52
Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Matt Duchene
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·14:52
Mavrik Bourque Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (29), Alexander Petrovic (8)
· ·
DAL 6·TOR 5

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 6.5·DAL -192/TOR +160

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

allas Stars went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 6–5.

TOR +1.5 cashed (DAL won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Mavrik Bourque · DAL16:060.9353.1%50.6%16:06 TOI · 0.93 iXG · 53.1% CF · 50.6% xGF
Wyatt Johnston · DAL18:360.7364.7%78.5%18:36 TOI · 0.73 iXG · 64.7% CF · 78.5% xGF
Nicholas Robertson · TOR14:540.6948.4%50.3%14:54 TOI · 0.69 iXG · 48.4% CF · 50.3% xGF
Arttu Hyry · DAL12:480.4939.1%49.0%12:48 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 39.1% CF · 49.0% xGF
John Tavares · TOR20:120.4053.7%42.0%20:12 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 53.7% CF · 42.0% xGF
Jason Robertson · DAL19:240.3664.1%64.3%19:24 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 64.1% CF · 64.3% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

#848251527–6.844-2.2627–6 · .844 SV% · -2.26 GSAx
Casey DeSmith · DAL22–5.815-2.2922–5 · .815 SV% · -2.29 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.4%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
42.4%
P(TOR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
42.4%
P(TOR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
42.4%
P(TOR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at TOR?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Dallas StarsToronto Maple Leafs

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