NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DAL

DAL

49-20-12

TOR

32-35-14

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Apr 13FinalSeriesDAL wins series 2-0VegasDAL -192

Recap · NHL

allas Stars went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 6–5.

TOR +1.5 cashed (DAL won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

Mavrik Bourque

C · #22

4Points

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

William Nylander

RW · #88

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

DAL49-20-12

TOR32-35-14

DAL49-20-12TOR32-35-14

DAL

49-20-12

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

TOR

32-35-14

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

DAL wins series 2-0

Dec 22

TOR1@

DAL5

Apr 13

DAL6@

TOR5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-19266%

TOR+16038%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat TOR 6-5.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DAL	0	3	3	6
TOR	3	0	2	5

Period scoring

DAL won 2 · TOR won 1

DAL

TOR

Play-by-play · 286 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·19:03
Arttu Hyry Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·18:59
John Tavares faceoff won against Radek Faksa
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·18:59
Icing
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·18:47
Radek Faksa faceoff won against John Tavares
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·18:47
Puck in Netting
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·18:45
William Nylander shot blocked by Matt Duchene
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·18:17
Matt Duchene faceoff won against John Tavares
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·18:17
Off-side
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·17:31
Steven Lorentz hit Radek Faksa
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·17:29
Giveaway by Matias Maccelli
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·17:17
Steven Lorentz hit Oskar Bäck
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·17:13
Steven Lorentz hit Radek Faksa
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·17:06
Jacob Quillan hit Kyle Capobianco
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·16:47
Giveaway by Nicholas Robertson
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·16:43
Nicholas Robertson Slap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith
· ·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·16:32
Giveaway by Esa Lindell
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·16:18
Matthew Knies shot blocked by Tyler Myers
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·15:48
Giveaway by Matt Duchene
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·15:44
Jason Robertson Tip-In Wide Right
· ·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·15:39
Matt Duchene Backhand saved by Artur Akhtyamov
· ·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·15:36
Giveaway by John Tavares
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·15:34
Giveaway by Jason Robertson
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·15:28
Jason Robertson shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
· ·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·15:12
Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Ilya Lyubushkin
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·15:11
John Tavares faceoff won against Mavrik Bourque
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·15:11
Icing
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·14:52
Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Matt Duchene
·
DAL 6·TOR 5
3rd·14:52
Mavrik Bourque Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (29), Alexander Petrovic (8)
· ·
DAL 6·TOR 5

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 6.5·DAL -192/TOR +160

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE

Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
SHOT MPH94.596
William NylanderTOR · RW
SKATE MPH23.594
Jake McCabeTOR · D
DIST MI253.292
Morgan RiellyTOR · D
BURSTS7190
Simon BenoitTOR · D
BURSTS7090

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

TOR vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

Jason RobertsonDAL
3.9± 2.0high
Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
Wyatt JohnstonDAL
2.7± 1.8high

Goals

Jason RobertsonDAL
0.8± 0.6high
Wyatt JohnstonDAL
0.6± 0.7high
John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high

Points

Jason RobertsonDAL
1.3± 0.9high
Matt DucheneDAL
1.2± 1.2high
William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands