Toronto Tempo at Golden State Valkyries
TOR
8-8
GS
10-6
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
oronto Tempo visit Golden State Valkyries Sunday at 8/2 - 8:30 PM EDT. TOR is 4-4 in their last 8. GS is 5-4 in their last 9.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
TOR
Away
Stat
GS
Home
44
FG %
41
Season series
Series starts 7/8
GS@TORupcomingTOR@GStodayTOR@GSupcomingScouting report
TOR @ GS
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
GS -11.4
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
GS
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
8-8
Record
10-6
#4
Conf rank
#3
-2.0
Pt diff
+5.8
W1
Streak
L1
5-5
Last 10
6-4
47.2
Power score
58.5
#9
Power rank
#6
58.1
Sched ahead
78.1
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.1%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Marina MabreyTOR19.6± 9.5medium
- Brittney SykesTOR18.1± 10.6medium
- Gabby WilliamsGS17.2± 8.3medium
Rebounds
- Kayla ThorntonGS5.5± 3.3medium
- Isabelle HarrisonTOR5.3± 2.6low
- Nyara SaballyTOR5.2± 2.2low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.3± 2.7medium
- Marina MabreyTOR4.2± 2.7medium
- Julie AllemandTOR4.1± 3.1low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.6± 1.6medium
- Nyara SaballyTOR1.1± 1.0low
- Veronica BurtonGS0.9± 1.8medium
Steals
- Julie AllemandTOR1.6± 1.3low
- Laura JuskaiteTOR1.6± 1.6medium
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.5± 0.8medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
TOR
league avg
GS
43.8%
FG%
44.6
40.6%
35.0%
3PT %
33.4
▶36.3%
89.6
PPG
85.7
84.4
19.4
Assists / G
18.0
18.9
12.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.2