WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+17GS

TOR

10-19

7996

20-9

WNBASun, Aug 2FinalSeriesGS wins series 3-0VegasGS -13.5

TOR · top performer

Julie Allemand

G · #22

13.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Janelle Salaun

F · #13

17.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 11pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:43

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. CondeF · #10	34	10	5-14	0-7	—	-8	5	5
N. SaballyF · #8	25	19	6-12	3-5	4-7	+1	8	1
L. JuskaiteF · #2	35	15	5-7	1-3	4-6	-21	4	2
J. AllemandG · #22	34	11	4-6	3-5	—	-9	3	6
K. RiceG · #1	27	16	6-12	0-2	4-4	-1	5	3
Bench
I. HarrisonF · #21	17	4	2-9	0-4	—	-21	2	1
T. KeyF · #7	1	0	0-1	—	—	-2	1	0
T. FagbenleC · #14	11	0	0-2	0-1	—	-5	6	0
K. NurseG · #11	17	4	1-4	0-3	2-2	-19	0	2
Team		79	29-67	7-30	14-19		34	20
DNP: A. Morrow, B. Sykes, M. Mabrey

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. ThorntonF · #5	11	3	1-1	1-1	—	-3	1	0
G. WilliamsF · #1	19	15	5-11	3-3	2-2	+6	2	1
C. ZandalasiniF · #24	16	7	2-5	1-2	2-2	+3	1	5
K. StokesC · #41	32	8	4-6	0-2	—	+30	11	1
V. BurtonG · #22	29	17	6-10	3-4	2-3	+15	2	6
Bench
L. AmihereF · #3	5	0	—	—	—	-3	1	1
J. SalaunF · #13	30	24	9-15	4-9	2-2	+17	3	2
T. HayesG · #15	20	15	4-10	1-5	6-7	+10	3	4
K. CharlesG · #6	17	5	1-4	1-1	2-2	-2	1	2
K. ChenG · #2	20	2	1-5	0-2	—	+12	1	4
Team		96	33-67	14-29	16-18		26	26
DNP: A. Prechtel, N. Fingall, J. Jocyte

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

Home

29-67

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-67

FG %

7-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-29

14-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS wins series 3-0

Jul 8

GS83@

TOR75

Aug 3

TOR79@

GS96today

Aug 5

TOR81@

GS92

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -13.5

Between 10 and —

2.0pt· 6h

Total

164.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

2.0pt· 6h

Moneyline

TOR+67513%

GS-105091%

100· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -13.5↗SpreadBet GS -13.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

+2.0 since open

Total

164.5

-1.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat TOR 96-79. J. Salaun led with 24 PTS, 3 REB, 2 AST. GS outscored the other side 29-18 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 90% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 25 REB · 17 AST

GS 54

Bench(4)

8 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST

GSstarters 52% of pts

Starters(5)

50 PTS · 17 REB · 13 AST

GS 50

Bench(5)

46 PTS · 9 REB · 13 AST

GS 35

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR3rd Quarter · 4:43 · 56-51

+11pp→ 53% WP

Kaila Charles · misses 8-foot turnaround jump shot

GS3rd Quarter · 4:39 · 56-53

+10pp→ 55% WP

Janelle Salaun · makes 15-foot two point shot (Kaitlyn Chen assists)

GS3rd Quarter · 3:36 · 56-53

+10pp→ 57% WP

Isabelle Harrison · misses 25-foot three point jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	20	23	18	18	79
GS	25	19	23	29	96

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · GS won 3

Allemand 6

Williams 7

Sabally 10

Zandalasini 8

Conde 6

Salaun 11

Rice 7

Burton 9

TOR

Shooting comparison

TOR

43%

29-67

49%

33-67

23%

7-30

3PT

48%

14-29

74%

14-19

89%

16-18

Play-by-play · 376 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 79·GS 96
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 79·GS 96
Q4·3.6
Temi Fagbenle defensive rebound
TOR 79·GS 96
Q4·7.2
Kaitlyn Chen misses 23-foot three point jumper
TOR 79·GS 96
Q4·28.2
Teonni Key bad pass turnover (Veronica Burton steals)
·
TOR 79·GS 96
Q4·29.5
Teonni Key offensive rebound
TOR 79·GS 96
Q4·32.9
Kiah Stokes blocks Teonni Key 's 3-foot layup
·
TOR 79·GS 96
Q4·44.6
Kaila Charles makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 79·GS 96
Q4·44.6
Kaila Charles makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 79·GS 95
Q4·44.6
Laura Juskaite shooting foul
TOR 79·GS 94
Q4·1:00
Kaila Charles defensive rebound
TOR 79·GS 94
Q4·1:03
Laura Juskaite misses free throw 2 of 2
TOR 79·GS 94
Q4·1:03
Teonni Key enters the game for Julie Allemand
·
TOR 79·GS 94
Q4·1:03
Temi Fagbenle enters the game for Maria Conde
·
TOR 79·GS 94
Q4·1:03
Laura Juskaite makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 79·GS 94
Q4·1:03
Janelle Salaun loose ball foul
TOR 78·GS 94
Q4·1:03
Tempo offensive team rebound
TOR 78·GS 94
Q4·1:05
Isabelle Harrison misses 25-foot three point jumper
TOR 78·GS 94
Q4·1:17
Veronica Burton makes 6-foot two point shot
TOR 78·GS 94
Q4·1:32
Janelle Salaun defensive rebound
TOR 78·GS 92
Q4·1:34
Kia Nurse misses 23-foot three point jumper
TOR 78·GS 92
Q4·1:41
Tempo offensive team rebound
TOR 78·GS 92
Q4·1:43
Maria Conde misses 25-foot three point jumper
TOR 78·GS 92
Q4·1:51
Kiah Stokes makes 5-foot layup (Janelle Salaun assists)
·
TOR 78·GS 92
Q4·2:11
Laura Juskaite makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 78·GS 90
Q4·2:11
Kia Nurse enters the game for Nyara Sabally
·
TOR 77·GS 90
Q4·2:11
Isabelle Harrison enters the game for Kiki Rice
·
TOR 77·GS 90
Q4·2:11
Laura Juskaite makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 77·GS 90
Q4·2:11
Kiah Stokes shooting foul
TOR 76·GS 90
Q4·2:18
Veronica Burton makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
TOR 76·GS 90

Betting line

GS -13.5·O/U 164.5·TOR +675/GS -1050

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

olden State Valkyries held off Toronto Tempo, 96–79.

GS -13.5 cashed (won by 17). Total cleared the 164.5 OVER by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

TOR

eFG%

shooting

48.5%

59.7%

TOV%

ball control

13.7%

8.5%

OREB%

offensive glass

31.3%

14.3%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

20.9%

23.9%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kiah StokesGS · C
AST/TO3.899+
Veronica BurtonGS · G
AST/TO3.797
Kiki RiceTOR · G
TS%.67095
Nyara SaballyTOR · F
ORB%.10991
Gabby WilliamsGS · F
USG%.27488

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

81.9%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
83.4%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
82.3%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
78.4%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

TOR

no live price

Book	TOR	GS	Best edge
DraftKings	+575	-850	+1.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

GS vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 90 high confidence

Points

Marina MabreyTOR
20.2± 8.9high
Brittney SykesTOR
18.1± 10.6medium
Janelle SalaunGS
14.6± 6.3high

Rebounds

Aneesah MorrowTOR
7.6± 4.7high
Kiah StokesGS
5.7± 2.6high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
5.7± 3.8medium

Assists

Julie AllemandTOR
6.0± 2.2high
Veronica BurtonGS
5.7± 2.2high
Marina MabreyTOR
3.8± 1.7high

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.9± 1.4high
Laeticia AmihereGS
0.6± 1.0high
Nyara SaballyTOR
0.6± 0.7high

Steals

Gabby WilliamsGS
1.6± 1.1high
Veronica BurtonGS
1.5± 0.7high
Julie AllemandTOR
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Toronto TempoGolden State Valkyries

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop