Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at NYI?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NYI

TOR

32-33-14

NYI

43-31-5

NHLThu, Apr 9FinalSeriesNYI win series 3-0VegasNYI -305

TOR · top performer

Steven Lorentz

C · #18

1Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Calum Ritchie

C · #64

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	18:54
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	12:18
L. HaymesC · #43	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	12:47
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	16:43
M. KniesLW · #23	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	18:56
S. LorentzC · #18	1	0	1	2	0	1	2	15:15
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	1	-1	0	0	0	0	11:17
W. NylanderRW · #88	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	21:53
M. PezzettaLW · #61	0	0	0	0	6	0	2	6:24
J. QuillanC · #26	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	13:24
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	11:19
J. TavaresC · #91	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	19:39

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	-2	2	3	0	0	17:47
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	1	0	1	1	1	10	15:52
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	25:06
P. MyersD · #51	0	0	-1	0	3	2	2	15:37
M. RiellyD · #44	1	0	1	2	1	3	2	20:45
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	20:57

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. AkhtyamovG · #70	44	5	39	.886	56:23

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	1	0	4	0	1	0	21:36
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:19
M. GatcombC · #16	0	0	0	5	6	0	0	10:20
E. HeinemanLW · #51	1	0	1	3	2	1	0	15:55
S. HolmstromRW · #92	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:24
B. HorvatC · #14	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	19:50
A. LeeLW · #27	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:08
J. PageauC · #44	1	0	0	2	4	0	0	14:28
O. PalatLW · #81	0	1	1	0	5	1	0	10:41
C. RitchieC · #64	1	1	0	4	0	0	2	15:31
B. SchennC · #10	1	0	0	3	4	0	0	18:56
M. ShabanovRW · #49	0	1	0	1	1	2	0	12:51

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	2	2	4	0	1	0	20:33
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	13:35
A. PelechD · #3	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	18:52
R. PulockD · #6	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	21:16
M. SchaeferD · #48	1	0	1	3	0	2	0	24:50
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	14:02

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SorokinG · #30	16	3	13	.813	59:32

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

40.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NYI win series 3-0

Jan 4

TOR3@

NYI4

Mar 17

NYI3@

TOR1

Apr 9

TOR3@

NYI5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+24529%

NYI-30575%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 82 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat TOR 5-3. C. Ritchie led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	1	1	1	3
NYI	2	2	1	5

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · NYI won 2

TOR

NYI

Play-by-play · 348 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·19:39
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Jacob Quillan
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·19:39
Puck in Netting
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·19:36
Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by Calle Jarnkrok
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·19:17
Jake McCabe Slap Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·18:25
Mathew Barzal shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·18:22
John Tavares faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·18:22
Timeout - Visitor
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·18:22
On-Ice Official
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·18:20
Jake McCabe shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·17:37
Giveaway by John Tavares
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·17:23
Giveaway by Simon Holmstrom
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·16:50
Max Domi Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·16:18
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·16:18
Icing
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·16:14
Mathew Barzal Snap Shot Wide Left
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·16:11
Max Domi Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·16:10
Max Domi Tip-In saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·16:09
John Tavares Snap Shot Wide Right
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·16:02
Brayden Schenn faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·16:02
Goalie Stopped
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·16:00
Steven Lorentz Backhand saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·15:53
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Luke Haymes
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·15:53
Puck in Benches
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·15:31
Philippe Myers hit Ondrej Palat
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·15:13
Philippe Myers hit Marc Gatcomb
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·14:34
Troy Stecher shot blocked by Max Shabanov
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·14:22
Morgan Rielly Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·14:20
John Tavares faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
TOR 3·NYI 5

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +245/NYI -305

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 5–3.

NYI -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Marc Gatcomb · NYI10:240.8461.9%76.1%10:24 TOI · 0.84 iXG · 61.9% CF · 76.1% xGF
Jean-Gabriel Pageau · NYI14:360.6055.9%71.4%14:36 TOI · 0.60 iXG · 55.9% CF · 71.4% xGF
#848422115:360.5966.7%76.9%15:36 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 66.7% CF · 76.9% xGF
Brayden Schenn · NYI19:060.5058.5%58.4%19:06 TOI · 0.50 iXG · 58.5% CF · 58.4% xGF
Simon Holmstrom · NYI16:480.4957.9%64.0%16:48 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 57.9% CF · 64.0% xGF
Bo Horvat · NYI20:060.4363.0%68.5%20:06 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 63.0% CF · 68.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

#848251539–5.886+1.0039–5 · .886 SV% · +1.00 GSAx
Ilya Sorokin · NYI13–3.813-1.8513–3 · .813 SV% · -1.85 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.8%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
64.8%
P(NYI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.8%
P(NYI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.8%
P(NYI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+245

Close price

+245

Open no-vig

27.8%

Close no-vig

27.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at NYI?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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