NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NYI

TOR

32-33-14

NYI

43-31-5

NHLThu, Apr 9FinalSeriesNYI win series 3-0VegasNYI -305

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 5–3.

NYI -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

Easton Cowan

RW · #53

1Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Calum Ritchie

C · #64

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
E. CowanRW · #53	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	18:54
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	12:18
L. HaymesC · #43	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	12:47
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	16:43
M. KniesLW · #23	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	18:56
S. LorentzC · #18	1	0	1	2	0	1	2	15:15
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	1	-1	0	0	0	0	11:17
W. NylanderRW · #88	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	21:53
M. PezzettaLW · #61	0	0	0	0	6	0	2	6:24
J. QuillanC · #26	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	13:24
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	11:19
J. TavaresC · #91	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	19:39

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	-2	2	3	0	0	17:47
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	1	0	1	1	1	10	15:52
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	25:06
P. MyersD · #51	0	0	-1	0	3	2	2	15:37
M. RiellyD · #44	1	0	1	2	1	3	2	20:45
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	20:57

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
A. AkhtyamovG · #70	44	5	39	.886	56:23

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
M. BarzalC · #13	0	1	0	4	0	1	0	21:36
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:19
M. GatcombC · #16	0	0	0	5	6	0	0	10:20
E. HeinemanLW · #51	1	0	1	3	2	1	0	15:55
S. HolmstromRW · #92	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:24
B. HorvatC · #14	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	19:50
A. LeeLW · #27	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:08
J. PageauC · #44	1	0	0	2	4	0	0	14:28
O. PalatLW · #81	0	1	1	0	5	1	0	10:41
C. RitchieC · #64	1	1	0	4	0	0	2	15:31
B. SchennC · #10	1	0	0	3	4	0	0	18:56
M. ShabanovRW · #49	0	1	0	1	1	2	0	12:51

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	2	2	4	0	1	0	20:33
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	13:35
A. PelechD · #3	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	18:52
R. PulockD · #6	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	21:16
M. SchaeferD · #48	1	0	1	3	0	2	0	24:50
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	14:02

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
I. SorokinG · #30	16	3	13	.813	59:32

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

NYI win series 3-0

Jan 4

TOR3@

NYI4

Mar 17

NYI3@

TOR1

Apr 9

TOR3@

NYI5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+24529%

NYI-30575%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 42 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat TOR 5-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	1	1	1	3
NYI	2	2	1	5

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · NYI won 2

TOR

NYI

Play-by-play · 348 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·19:39
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Jacob Quillan
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·19:39
Puck in Netting
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·19:36
Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by Calle Jarnkrok
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·19:17
Jake McCabe Slap Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·18:25
Mathew Barzal shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·18:22
John Tavares faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·18:22
Timeout - Visitor
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·18:22
On-Ice Official
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·18:20
Jake McCabe shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·17:37
Giveaway by John Tavares
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·17:23
Giveaway by Simon Holmstrom
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·16:50
Max Domi Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·16:18
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·16:18
Icing
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·16:14
Mathew Barzal Snap Shot Wide Left
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·16:11
Max Domi Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·16:10
Max Domi Tip-In saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·16:09
John Tavares Snap Shot Wide Right
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·16:02
Brayden Schenn faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·16:02
Goalie Stopped
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·16:00
Steven Lorentz Backhand saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·15:53
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Luke Haymes
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·15:53
Puck in Benches
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·15:31
Philippe Myers hit Ondrej Palat
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·15:13
Philippe Myers hit Marc Gatcomb
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·14:34
Troy Stecher shot blocked by Max Shabanov
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·14:22
Morgan Rielly Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 3·NYI 5
3rd·14:20
John Tavares faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
TOR 3·NYI 5

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

40.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +245/NYI -305

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
BURSTS26999+
Ryan PulockNYI · D
SHOT MPH103.099+
Mathew BarzalNYI · C
DIST MI274.399
Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
SHOT MPH97.399
Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
SHOT MPH94.596

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.7%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
64.8%
P(NYI win)
45%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.8%
P(NYI win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
65.5%
P(NYI win)
45%
weight

Disagreement

0.35 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+245

Close price

+245

Open no-vig

27.8%

Close no-vig

27.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

NYI vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 111 high confidence

Shots on goal

Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
Bo HorvatNYI
2.9± 0.9high
Kyle PalmieriNYI
2.7± 1.6high

Goals

John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high
William NylanderTOR
0.5± 0.7high
Anders LeeNYI
0.3± 0.5high

Points

William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high
John TavaresTOR
1.0± 1.1high
Mathew BarzalNYI
0.8± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands