Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at PHX?

The model favors PHX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NY

17-13

9492

PHX

11-19

WNBASat, Aug 1FinalSeriesNY wins series 3-0VegasNY -2.5

NY · top performer

Sabrina Ionescu

G · #20

24.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

DeWanna Bonner

F · #24

22.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 34pp · 4th Quarter · 8:24

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	34	14	4-10	0-1	6-6	-14	11	2
J. JonesC · #35	28	16	6-10	0-4	4-4	+10	9	5
R. AllenG · #9	21	5	2-5	1-1	—	-2	2	1
S. IonescuG · #20	35	27	9-19	4-10	5-5	+6	7	10
P. AstierG · #18	21	6	3-7	—	—	+5	0	2
Bench
R. CarreraF · #14	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	+5	1	1
H. XuC · #21	22	17	6-9	3-6	2-2	+3	6	1
R. GardnerG · #7	11	2	1-2	0-1	—	+6	1	1
M. JohannesG · #23	14	5	2-4	1-3	—	-7	0	1
M. FauthouxG · #4	13	2	0-1	0-1	2-2	-2	0	2
Team		94	33-68	9-28	19-19		37	26
DNP: S. Sabally, L. Fiebich, B. Laney-Hamilton

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BonnerF · #24	32	25	9-17	2-6	5-6	+2	7	3
A. ThomasF · #25	36	17	7-12	—	3-4	+5	6	7
N. BrochantF · #1	26	5	2-4	1-2	—	+5	0	1
K. CopperG · #2	37	25	8-15	2-7	7-9	+12	2	0
M. Akoa MakaniG · #8	16	4	2-4	—	—	-5	3	3
Bench
V. AyayiF · #11	21	5	0-2	0-1	5-6	-3	1	2
N. MackF · #4	12	5	2-2	—	1-2	-11	3	2
S. WhitcombG · #33	15	4	1-4	1-3	1-1	-11	0	3
L. HeldG · #10	6	2	1-3	—	—	-4	1	0
Team		92	32-63	6-19	22-28		23	21
DNP: M. Suarez, K. Linskens

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

33-68

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-63

FG %

9-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-19

19-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-28

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NY wins series 3-0

May 27

PHX74@

NY84

May 29

PHX68@

NY75

Aug 1

NY94@

PHX92today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -2.5

Between — and 5

1.0pt· 6.4h

Total

176.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY-14259%

PHX+12045%

6· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -2.5↗SpreadBet NY -2.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

+1.0 since open

Total

176.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat PHX 94-92. S. Ionescu paced them with 27 PTS, 7 REB, 10 AST. NY outscored the other side 26-15 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 29 REB · 20 AST

GS 56

Bench(5)

26 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST

GS 17

PHXstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 18 REB · 14 AST

GS 59

Bench(4)

16 PTS · 5 REB · 7 AST

GS 13

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX4th Quarter · 8:24 · 66-67

+34pp→ 52% WP

Valeriane Ayayi · blocks Rebecca Allen 's 2-foot layup

PHX4th Quarter · 1:57 · 87-81

+11pp→ 18% WP

Pauline Astier · personal foul

NY4th Quarter · 13.4 · 92-90

+17pp→ 95% WP

Valeriane Ayayi · personal take foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	26	20	20	28	94
PHX	15	28	22	27	92

Period scoring

NY won 2 · PHX won 2

Ionescu 7

Mack 6

Xu 9

Copper 8

Ionescu 9

Thomas 6

Jones 8

Copper 10

PHX

Shooting comparison

PHX

49%

33-68

51%

32-63

32%

9-28

3PT

32%

6-19

100%

19-19

79%

22-28

Play-by-play · 391 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 94·PHX 92
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th QuarterBIG MOMENT
NY 94·PHX 92
−5pp
Q4·4.2
Alyssa Thomas makes 1-foot floating jump shot (Monique Akoa Makani assists)
·
NY 94·PHX 92
−2pp
Q4·12.7
Rebecca Allen enters the game for Marine Fauthoux
·
NY 94·PHX 90
Q4·12.7
Monique Akoa Makani enters the game for Natasha Mack
·
NY 94·PHX 90
Q4·12.7
Mercury Reset Timeout
NY 94·PHX 90
Q4·12.7
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 94·PHX 90
+3pp
Q4·12.7
Natasha Mack enters the game for Valeriane Ayayi
·
NY 93·PHX 90
Q4·12.7
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 93·PHX 90
−0.9pp
Q4·12.7
Valeriane Ayayi personal take foul
NY 92·PHX 90
Q4·13.4
Valeriane Ayayi personal take foulBIG MOMENT
NY 92·PHX 90
−17pp
Q4·24.1
Liberty Full timeout
NY 92·PHX 90
Q4·24.1
DeWanna Bonner makes 25-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
NY 92·PHX 90
+13pp
Q4·28.2
Sabrina Ionescu lost ball turnover (Kahleah Copper steals)
·
NY 92·PHX 87
+4pp
Q4·33.9
Liberty Reset Timeout
NY 92·PHX 87
Q4·33.9
Valeriane Ayayi makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 92·PHX 87
Q4·33.9
Mercury offensive team rebound
NY 92·PHX 86
−4pp
Q4·33.9
Valeriane Ayayi misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 92·PHX 86
−6pp
Q4·33.9
Marine Fauthoux loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
NY 92·PHX 86
+10pp
Q4·33.9
Breanna Stewart bad pass turnover
NY 92·PHX 86
+3pp
Q4·35.4
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 92·PHX 86
−2pp
Q4·35.4
Marine Fauthoux enters the game for Rebecca Allen
·
NY 92·PHX 85
Q4·35.4
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 92·PHX 85
+0.6pp
Q4·35.4
Jonquel Jones shooting foul
NY 92·PHX 84
+3pp
Q4·41.8
shot clock turnover
NY 92·PHX 84
+0.9pp
Q4·42.1
Liberty offensive team rebound
NY 92·PHX 84
−0.7pp
Q4·42.7
DeWanna Bonner blocks Pauline Astier 's 10-foot pullup jump shot
·
NY 92·PHX 84
Q4·1:05
Breanna Stewart defensive rebound
NY 92·PHX 84
Q4·1:07
Jonquel Jones blocks Kahleah Copper 's 25-foot three point jumper
·
NY 92·PHX 84
−1pp
Q4·1:10
Mercury Full timeout
NY 92·PHX 84

Betting line

NY -2.5·O/U 176.5·NY -142/PHX +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ew York Liberty went into Phoenix Mercury and beat them, 94–92. Decided by 2.

PHX +2.5 cashed (NY won by 2). Total cleared the 176.5 OVER by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

PHX

eFG%

shooting

55.1%

55.6%

TOV%

ball control

15.5%

11.7%

OREB%

offensive glass

31.0%

9.7%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

27.9%

34.9%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Natasha MackPHX · F
TS%.70899+
Kahleah CopperPHX · G
USG%.30599
Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Pauline AstierNY · G
TS%.65692
Breanna StewartNY · F
USG%.28091

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.3%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
51.8%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
49.4%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
50.2%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.65

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+102

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

47.3%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at PHX?: The model favors PHX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+24.1pp

best edge · PHX · DraftKings

no live price

PHX

★ best

+400DraftKings

edge +24.1pp · implied 18.8%

Book	NY	PHX	Best edge
DraftKings	-620	+400★	+24.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHX vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 70 high confidence

Points

Kelsey PlumPHX
22.8± 12.8medium
Breanna StewartNY
21.2± 7.8high
Kahleah CopperPHX
20.4± 8.3high

Rebounds

Breanna StewartNY
9.0± 2.8high
Jonquel JonesNY
8.9± 2.6high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
7.8± 2.9high

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.4± 4.1high
Kelsey PlumPHX
6.3± 3.1medium
Sabrina IonescuNY
5.0± 2.2high

Blocks

Breanna StewartNY
1.7± 0.9high
Natasha MackPHX
1.1± 0.9high
Jonquel JonesNY
1.0± 0.6high

Steals

Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.3± 1.4high
Breanna StewartNY
1.2± 1.5high
Leonie FiebichNY
1.2± 1.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

On the call · WNBA

3 officials

Referee

Roy Gulbeyan

Referee

Amy Bonner

Referee

Ryan Sassano

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Team pages

New York LibertyPhoenix Mercury

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Aces83Sky84Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop