New York Liberty at Phoenix Mercury
NY
11-5
PHX
4-12
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ew York Liberty visit Phoenix Mercury Saturday at 8/1 - 3:00 PM EDT. NY is rolling — 6-1 in their last 7.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
46
FG %
42
Season series
NY leads series 2-0
PHX74@NY84PHX68@NY75NY@PHXtodayScouting report
NY @ PHX
Tale of the tape
11-5
Record
5-12
#2
Conf rank
#7
+6.0
Pt diff
-3.4
L1
Streak
W1
8-2
Last 10
3-7
58.2
Sched ahead
51.9
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.6%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX19.3± 10.1medium
- Breanna StewartNY18.7± 8.0medium
- Jonquel JonesNY14.2± 5.6medium
Rebounds
- Jonquel JonesNY9.5± 4.0medium
- Breanna StewartNY8.6± 2.3medium
- Natasha MackPHX8.3± 3.5medium
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.5± 2.7medium
- Pauline AstierNY4.0± 1.8medium
- Sabrina IonescuNY3.3± 2.8low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.5± 1.4medium
- Breanna StewartNY1.3± 2.4medium
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.2medium
Steals
- Monique Akoa MakaniPHX1.6± 1.0low
- Breanna StewartNY1.5± 1.5medium
- Alyssa ThomasPHX1.5± 1.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
PHX
46.1%
FG%
44.6
42.3%
34.8%
3PT %
33.4
32.3%
88.6
PPG
85.7
81.8
21.0
Assists / G
18.0
18.9
14.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.4