NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4FLA

FLA

38-38-4

TOR

32-34-14

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Apr 11FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasTOR -162

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 6–2.

FLA +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

FLA · top performer

Eetu Luostarinen

C · #27

3Points

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

William Nylander

RW · #88

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

FLA38-38-4

TOR32-34-14

FLA38-38-4TOR32-34-14

FLA

38-38-4

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

TOR

32-34-14

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Dec 3

TOR4@

FLA1

Jan 7

FLA1@

TOR4

Feb 27

TOR1@

FLA5

Apr 11

FLA6@

TOR2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA+13642%

TOR-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat TOR 6-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	2	1	3	6
TOR	0	2	0	2

Period scoring

FLA won 2 · TOR won 1

FLA

TOR

Play-by-play · 301 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 6·TOR 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 6·TOR 2
3rd·19:28
Steven Lorentz Backhand Wide Right
·
FLA 6·TOR 2
3rd·19:26
Nicholas Robertson Wrist Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
FLA 6·TOR 2
3rd·19:14
Oliver Ekman-Larsson Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
FLA 6·TOR 2
3rd·18:34
Cole Reinhardt Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
FLA 6·TOR 2
3rd·18:29
Jacob Quillan hit Marek Alscher
·
FLA 6·TOR 2
3rd·18:17
Jacob Quillan Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 6·TOR 2
3rd·18:07
Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Luke Kunin
·
FLA 6·TOR 2
3rd·18:07
Tomas Nosek Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Noah Gregor (4)
·
FLA 6·TOR 2
3rd·17:45
John Tavares faceoff won against Tomas Nosek
·
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·17:45
Icing
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·17:41
Noah Gregor Wrist Shot Off Crossbar
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·17:38
John Tavares faceoff won against Tomas Nosek
·
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·17:38
Icing
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·17:35
Tomas Nosek Wrist Shot Wide Right
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·17:29
Max Domi shot blocked by Tobias Bjornfot
·
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·17:09
John Tavares shot blocked by Ludvig Jansson
·
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·16:26
Wilmer Skoog Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·15:56
Cole Schwindt faceoff won against Luke Haymes
·
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·15:56
A.J. Greer Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (21), Mackie Samoskevich (19)
· ·
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·15:51
Giveaway by William Nylander
FLA 4·TOR 2
3rd·15:20
John Tavares faceoff won against Eetu Luostarinen
·
FLA 4·TOR 2
3rd·15:20
Puck Frozen - Goalie
FLA 4·TOR 2
3rd·13:35
Troy Stecher hit Jesper Boqvist
·
FLA 4·TOR 2
3rd·13:13
Giveaway by Marek Alscher
FLA 4·TOR 2
3rd·13:06
Max Domi shot blocked by Wilmer Skoog
·
FLA 4·TOR 2
3rd·13:05
William Nylander faceoff won against Cole Schwindt
·
FLA 4·TOR 2
3rd·13:05
Goalie Stopped
FLA 4·TOR 2
3rd·13:03
Matthew Knies Backhand saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
FLA 4·TOR 2

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 6.5·FLA +136/TOR -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 20 skaters with EDGE

Gustav ForslingFLA · D
SHOT MPH100.497
Vinnie HinostrozaFLA · C
SKATE MPH23.696
Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
SHOT MPH94.596
William NylanderTOR · RW
SKATE MPH23.594
Jake McCabeTOR · D
DIST MI253.292

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

TOR vs FLA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 114 high confidence

Shots on goal

Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
Sam BennettFLA
2.7± 2.1high
Sam ReinhartFLA
2.7± 1.9high

Goals

John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high
William NylanderTOR
0.5± 0.7high
Carter VerhaegheFLA
0.4± 0.7high

Points

William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high
Aleksander BarkovFLA
1.1± 1.1high
Matthew TkachukFLA
1.1± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands