Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at TOR?

The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4FLA

FLA

38-38-4

TOR

32-34-14

NHLSat, Apr 11FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasTOR -162

FLA · top performer

Mackie Samoskevich

RW · #11

3Points

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

William Nylander

RW · #88

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	15:41
N. FooteLW · #25	0	0	0	1	3	1	2	14:13
A.J. GreerLW · #10	1	1	3	2	1	0	0	14:49
N. GregorLW · #18	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	15:04
V. HinostrozaC · #24	0	1	0	1	3	1	0	16:36
L. KuninC · #71	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	14:52
E. LuostarinenC · #27	1	2	2	1	0	0	0	15:10
T. NosekLW · #92	2	0	2	2	1	0	0	14:40
C. ReinhardtLW · #29	1	0	1	1	4	1	0	15:29
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	1	2	3	3	0	0	0	13:37
C. SchwindtRW · #79	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	15:18
W. SkoogC · #32	0	0	1	2	2	3	0	15:49

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AlscherD · #4	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	19:21
M. BenningD · #20	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	21:38
T. BjornfotD · #22	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	17:16
G. ForslingD · #42	0	0	2	2	1	2	0	21:54
L. JanssonD · #54	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	18:42
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	19:30

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. TarasovG · #40	19	2	17	.895	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	0	1	-4	1	3	0	0	16:59
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	-3	1	1	0	0	15:23
L. HaymesC · #43	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	14:40
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	13:06
M. KniesLW · #23	0	0	-4	1	1	0	0	16:30
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	-1	0	2	2	0	14:48
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:56
W. NylanderRW · #88	2	0	-1	5	0	1	0	19:48
M. PezzettaLW · #61	0	0	-1	1	4	1	0	9:37
J. QuillanC · #26	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	12:50
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	14:38
J. TavaresC · #91	0	1	-1	1	1	0	0	17:01

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	19:21
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	21:02
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	-2	2	1	2	0	18:42
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	-2	1	2	2	0	20:13
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	-3	0	2	1	0	19:46
W. VilleneuveD · #76	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	18:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WollG · #60	23	4	19	.826	57:55

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Dec 3

TOR4@

FLA1

Jan 7

FLA1@

TOR4

Feb 27

TOR1@

FLA5

Apr 11

FLA6@

TOR2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA+13642%

TOR-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 88 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat TOR 6-2. M. Samoskevich led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	2	1	3	6
TOR	0	2	0	2

Period scoring

FLA won 2 · TOR won 1

FLA

TOR

Play-by-play · 301 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 6·TOR 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 6·TOR 2
3rd·19:28
Steven Lorentz Backhand Wide Right
·
FLA 6·TOR 2
3rd·19:26
Nicholas Robertson Wrist Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
FLA 6·TOR 2
3rd·19:14
Oliver Ekman-Larsson Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
FLA 6·TOR 2
3rd·18:34
Cole Reinhardt Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
FLA 6·TOR 2
3rd·18:29
Jacob Quillan hit Marek Alscher
·
FLA 6·TOR 2
3rd·18:17
Jacob Quillan Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 6·TOR 2
3rd·18:07
Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Luke Kunin
·
FLA 6·TOR 2
3rd·18:07
Tomas Nosek Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Noah Gregor (4)
·
FLA 6·TOR 2
3rd·17:45
John Tavares faceoff won against Tomas Nosek
·
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·17:45
Icing
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·17:41
Noah Gregor Wrist Shot Off Crossbar
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·17:38
John Tavares faceoff won against Tomas Nosek
·
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·17:38
Icing
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·17:35
Tomas Nosek Wrist Shot Wide Right
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·17:29
Max Domi shot blocked by Tobias Bjornfot
·
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·17:09
John Tavares shot blocked by Ludvig Jansson
·
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·16:26
Wilmer Skoog Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·15:56
Cole Schwindt faceoff won against Luke Haymes
·
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·15:56
A.J. Greer Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (21), Mackie Samoskevich (19)
· ·
FLA 5·TOR 2
3rd·15:51
Giveaway by William Nylander
FLA 4·TOR 2
3rd·15:20
John Tavares faceoff won against Eetu Luostarinen
·
FLA 4·TOR 2
3rd·15:20
Puck Frozen - Goalie
FLA 4·TOR 2
3rd·13:35
Troy Stecher hit Jesper Boqvist
·
FLA 4·TOR 2
3rd·13:13
Giveaway by Marek Alscher
FLA 4·TOR 2
3rd·13:06
Max Domi shot blocked by Wilmer Skoog
·
FLA 4·TOR 2
3rd·13:05
William Nylander faceoff won against Cole Schwindt
·
FLA 4·TOR 2
3rd·13:05
Goalie Stopped
FLA 4·TOR 2
3rd·13:03
Matthew Knies Backhand saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
FLA 4·TOR 2

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 6.5·FLA +136/TOR -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 6–2.

FLA +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

William Nylander · TOR20:060.8167.6%68.8%20:06 TOI · 0.81 iXG · 67.6% CF · 68.8% xGF
Cole Schwindt · FLA15:180.6058.6%68.6%15:18 TOI · 0.60 iXG · 58.6% CF · 68.6% xGF
A.J. Greer · ANA14:540.4463.2%46.7%14:54 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 63.2% CF · 46.7% xGF
John Tavares · TOR17:180.3471.9%70.8%17:18 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 71.9% CF · 70.8% xGF
Max Domi · TOR15:360.3043.3%44.5%15:36 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 43.3% CF · 44.5% xGF
Mackie Samoskevich · SEA13:480.2667.7%45.9%13:48 TOI · 0.26 iXG · 67.7% CF · 45.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Daniil Tarasov · FLA17–2.895-0.2817–2 · .895 SV% · -0.28 GSAx
Joseph Woll · PHI19–4.826-2.3419–4 · .826 SV% · -2.34 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.4%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
53.4%
P(TOR win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.4%
P(TOR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.4%
P(TOR win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at TOR?: The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Florida PanthersToronto Maple Leafs

Elsewhere in the NHL