NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3TB

39-18-4

TOR

27-26-11

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 7FinalSeriesTB wins series 2-1VegasTB -218

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 5–2.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

Nikita Kucherov

RW · #86

4Points

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

Matias Maccelli

LW · #63

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

TB39-18-4

TOR27-26-11

TB39-18-4TOR27-26-11

39-18-4

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

TOR

27-26-11

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

TB wins series 2-1

Dec 9

TB0@

TOR2

Feb 26

TOR2@

TB4

Mar 8

TB5@

TOR2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-21869%

TOR+18036%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat TOR 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TB	4	0	1	5
TOR	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

TB won 1 · TOR won 0

TOR

Play-by-play · 294 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 5·TOR 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 5·TOR 2
3rd·19:29
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Max Domi
·
TB 5·TOR 2
3rd·19:29
Nicholas Robertson Goal (13) Wrap-around, assists: none
TB 5·TOR 2
3rd·19:15
Victor Hedman hit Nicholas Robertson
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·19:15
Nicholas Robertson Backhand saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·19:05
Giveaway by Corey Perry
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·18:46
Ryan McDonagh Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·17:48
Giveaway by Jacob Quillan
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·17:44
Erik Cernak shot blocked by Steven Lorentz
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·17:31
Victor Hedman Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·17:29
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Jacob Quillan
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·17:29
Goalie Stopped
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·17:28
Corey Perry Backhand saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·17:22
Corey Perry Tip-In saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·16:26
Oliver Bjorkstrand hit Simon Benoit
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·16:09
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Max Domi
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·16:09
Goalie Stopped
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·16:07
Nicholas Robertson Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·15:41
Conor Geekie faceoff won against Max Domi
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·15:41
Brandon Hagel Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (22), Nikita Kucherov (68)
· ·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·14:51
Victor Hedman hit Steven Lorentz
·
TB 4·TOR 1
3rd·14:39
Jake McCabe shot blocked by Jacob Quillan
·
TB 4·TOR 1
3rd·14:36
Ryan McDonagh hit Steven Lorentz
·
TB 4·TOR 1
3rd·14:30
Calle Jarnkrok Tip-In saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 4·TOR 1
3rd·14:30
Giveaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
TB 4·TOR 1
3rd·13:57
Anthony Cirelli Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TB 4·TOR 1
3rd·13:42
Darren Raddysh hit Matias Maccelli
·
TB 4·TOR 1
3rd·13:37
Auston Matthews shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 4·TOR 1
3rd·13:35
Oliver Ekman-Larsson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
TB 4·TOR 1

Team stats

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -218/TOR +180

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE

Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
SHOT MPH94.596
Jake McCabeTOR · D
DIST MI253.292
Morgan RiellyTOR · D
BURSTS7190
Simon BenoitTOR · D
BURSTS7090
Matthew KniesTOR · LW
DIST MI219.188

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+180

Close price

+180

Open no-vig

34.3%

Close no-vig

34.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

TOR vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 114 high confidence

Shots on goal

Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high
William NylanderTOR
0.5± 0.7high

Points

William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high
Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands