Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at TOR?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3TB

39-18-4

TOR

27-26-11

NHLSat, Mar 7FinalSeriesTB wins series 2-1VegasTB -218

TB · top performer

Anthony Cirelli

C · #71

2Points

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

Nicholas Robertson

LW · #89

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	1	0	-1	2	3	1	0	14:56
A. CirelliC · #71	0	2	2	5	1	2	0	15:43
C. GeekieC · #14	0	0	0	0	5	0	2	10:04
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	13:18
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	16:33
J. GuentzelC · #59	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	17:06
B. HagelLW · #38	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	18:50
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	14:01
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	4	3	1	0	0	0	18:36
C. PerryRW · #10	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	14:58
B. PointC · #21	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	16:52
S. SabourinRW · #46	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	10:07

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	1	1	2	2	0	19:45
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	16:04
V. HedmanD · #77	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	20:54
R. McDonaghD · #27	1	0	2	2	1	1	0	17:25
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	18:44
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	0	1	5	3	0	2	20:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	29	2	27	.931	59:19

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	15:18
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	1	1	0	0	5	13:39
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	11:55
D. JoshuaC · #81	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	14:06
M. KniesLW · #23	0	0	-2	2	1	1	0	19:58
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	-2	0	2	1	0	11:50
M. MaccelliLW · #63	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:07
A. MatthewsC · #34	0	0	-2	6	0	0	0	19:17
W. NylanderRW · #88	0	1	-2	2	0	0	0	17:53
J. QuillanC · #26	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	8:44
N. RobertsonLW · #89	1	0	1	6	2	0	0	15:08
J. TavaresC · #91	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	19:13

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	-1	0	2	0	2	15:13
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	1	1	2	1	2	19:56
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	18:49
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	-2	0	2	1	0	22:11
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	1	1	2	2	0	20:39
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	16:07

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. StolarzG · #41	32	4	28	.875	59:22

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

TB wins series 2-1

Dec 9

TB0@

TOR2

Feb 26

TOR2@

TB4

Mar 8

TB5@

TOR2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-21869%

TOR+18036%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 21 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat TOR 5-2. A. Cirelli led the way — 2 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TB	4	0	1	5
TOR	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

TB won 1 · TOR won 0

TOR

Play-by-play · 294 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 5·TOR 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 5·TOR 2
3rd·19:29
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Max Domi
·
TB 5·TOR 2
3rd·19:29
Nicholas Robertson Goal (13) Wrap-around, assists: none
TB 5·TOR 2
3rd·19:15
Victor Hedman hit Nicholas Robertson
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·19:15
Nicholas Robertson Backhand saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·19:05
Giveaway by Corey Perry
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·18:46
Ryan McDonagh Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·17:48
Giveaway by Jacob Quillan
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·17:44
Erik Cernak shot blocked by Steven Lorentz
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·17:31
Victor Hedman Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·17:29
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Jacob Quillan
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·17:29
Goalie Stopped
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·17:28
Corey Perry Backhand saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·17:22
Corey Perry Tip-In saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·16:26
Oliver Bjorkstrand hit Simon Benoit
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·16:09
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Max Domi
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·16:09
Goalie Stopped
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·16:07
Nicholas Robertson Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·15:41
Conor Geekie faceoff won against Max Domi
·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·15:41
Brandon Hagel Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (22), Nikita Kucherov (68)
· ·
TB 5·TOR 1
3rd·14:51
Victor Hedman hit Steven Lorentz
·
TB 4·TOR 1
3rd·14:39
Jake McCabe shot blocked by Jacob Quillan
·
TB 4·TOR 1
3rd·14:36
Ryan McDonagh hit Steven Lorentz
·
TB 4·TOR 1
3rd·14:30
Calle Jarnkrok Tip-In saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 4·TOR 1
3rd·14:30
Giveaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
TB 4·TOR 1
3rd·13:57
Anthony Cirelli Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TB 4·TOR 1
3rd·13:42
Darren Raddysh hit Matias Maccelli
·
TB 4·TOR 1
3rd·13:37
Auston Matthews shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 4·TOR 1
3rd·13:35
Oliver Ekman-Larsson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
TB 4·TOR 1

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -218/TOR +180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 5–2.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.9%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
43.9%
P(TOR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
43.9%
P(TOR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
43.9%
P(TOR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+180

Close price

+180

Open no-vig

34.3%

Close no-vig

34.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at TOR?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Tampa Bay LightningToronto Maple Leafs

Elsewhere in the NHL