NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4NYR

TOR

27-25-11

NYR

24-29-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 5FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNYR -130

Recap · NHL

ew York Rangers held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 6–2.

NYR -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

Easton Cowan

RW · #53

1Points

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

Alexis Lafreniere

LW · #13

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

TOR27-25-11

NYR24-29-8

TOR27-25-11NYR24-29-8

TOR

27-25-11

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

NYR

24-29-8

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 16

NYR1@

TOR2

Mar 6

TOR2@

NYR6today

Mar 25

NYR3@

TOR4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+11048%

NYR-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYR beat TOR 6-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	1	1	0	2
NYR	1	1	4	6

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · NYR won 1

TOR

NYR

Play-by-play · 309 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·19:40
Dakota Joshua hit Matthew Robertson
· ·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:44
Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Juuso Parssinen
·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:44
Puck in Netting
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:42
Braden Schneider shot blocked by Dakota Joshua
·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:37
Juuso Parssinen faceoff won against Max Domi
·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:37
Icing
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:29
Simon Benoit hit Braden Schneider
·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:20
Giveaway by Philippe Myers
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:16
Max Domi faceoff won against Conor Sheary
·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:16
Puck in Netting
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:14
Dakota Joshua hit Will Borgen
·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:09
Conor Sheary Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·17:27
Takeaway by Jacob Quillan
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·17:15
Simon Benoit hit Jaroslav Chmelar
·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·17:09
Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Juuso Parssinen
·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·17:09
Will Cuylle Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (23), Mika Zibanejad (31)
· ·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·17:01
Matias Maccelli Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·17:00
John Tavares Wrist Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·16:32
Giveaway by Auston Matthews
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·16:26
Takeaway by Adam Fox
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·15:30
Max Domi Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·15:26
Dakota Joshua Wrist Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·15:19
Max Domi faceoff won against Mika Zibanejad
·
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·15:19
Icing
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·14:27
John Tavares Backhand Wide Left
·
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·14:26
John Tavares Wrist Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·14:13
Giveaway by Alexis Lafrenière
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·14:09
Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 2·NYR 5

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

NYR -1.5·O/U 5.5·TOR +110/NYR -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE

Adam EdstromNYR · C
SKATE MPH23.898
Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
SHOT MPH94.596
Philippe MyersTOR · D
SHOT MPH99.395
Vladislav GavrikovNYR · D
DIST MI263.494
Noah LabaNYR · C
BURSTS17992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYR win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYR win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYR vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 111 high confidence

Shots on goal

Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
William NylanderTOR
2.7± 2.3high
Mika ZibanejadNYR
2.2± 1.0high

Goals

John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high
William NylanderTOR
0.5± 0.7high
Gabe PerreaultNYR
0.4± 1.0high

Points

Adam FoxNYR
1.2± 1.0high
William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high
J.T. MillerNYR
1.0± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands