NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4NYR

TOR

27-25-11

NYR

24-29-8

NHLThu, Mar 5FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNYR -130

TOR · top performer

Easton Cowan

RW · #53

1Points

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

Will Cuylle

LW · #50

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	16:48
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	13:09
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:40
D. JoshuaC · #81	0	0	-3	1	8	2	0	13:27
M. KniesLW · #23	0	1	0	3	1	0	0	17:39
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:07
M. MaccelliLW · #63	1	0	-1	2	0	0	2	19:32
A. MatthewsC · #34	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	20:46
W. NylanderRW · #88	0	1	-1	2	0	1	0	18:18
J. QuillanC · #26	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	9:53
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	-3	4	1	0	0	14:42
J. TavaresC · #91	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	17:11

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	-1	1	5	2	0	15:36
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	1	2	3	4	0	19:48
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	-2	1	1	5	0	20:23
P. MyersD · #51	0	0	-1	0	1	5	0	18:26
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	-1	2	0	0	2	20:47
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	20:25

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WollG · #60	23	5	18	.783	57:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodzinskiC · #22	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	13:11
J. ChmelarRW · #49	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	9:32
W. CuylleLW · #50	2	0	3	5	1	1	0	17:57
A. EdstromC · #84	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	8:54
T. KartyeLW · #24	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	16:55
N. LabaC · #42	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	15:51
A. LafreniereLW · #13	1	2	1	3	0	1	0	20:55
J. ParssinenC · #71	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	9:23
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	17:48
T. RaddyshRW · #14	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	13:40
C. ShearyLW · #43	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:03
M. ZibanejadC · #93	1	2	1	2	0	1	0	21:12

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	18:04
A. FoxD · #23	0	1	2	1	0	1	0	23:13
V. GavrikovD · #44	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	22:25
V. IorioD · #6	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	16:14
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	17:51
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	1	0	2	3	0	0	19:56

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ShesterkinG · #31	32	2	30	.938	59:56

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 16

NYR1@

TOR2

Mar 6

TOR2@

NYR6today

Mar 25

NYR3@

TOR4

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+11048%

NYR-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYR beat TOR 6-2. W. Cuylle led the way — 2 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	1	1	0	2
NYR	1	1	4	6

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · NYR won 1

TOR

NYR

Play-by-play · 309 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·19:40
Dakota Joshua hit Matthew Robertson
· ·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:44
Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Juuso Parssinen
·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:44
Puck in Netting
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:42
Braden Schneider shot blocked by Dakota Joshua
·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:37
Juuso Parssinen faceoff won against Max Domi
·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:37
Icing
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:29
Simon Benoit hit Braden Schneider
·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:20
Giveaway by Philippe Myers
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:16
Max Domi faceoff won against Conor Sheary
·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:16
Puck in Netting
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:14
Dakota Joshua hit Will Borgen
·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·18:09
Conor Sheary Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·17:27
Takeaway by Jacob Quillan
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·17:15
Simon Benoit hit Jaroslav Chmelar
·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·17:09
Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Juuso Parssinen
·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·17:09
Will Cuylle Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (23), Mika Zibanejad (31)
· ·
TOR 2·NYR 6
3rd·17:01
Matias Maccelli Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·17:00
John Tavares Wrist Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·16:32
Giveaway by Auston Matthews
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·16:26
Takeaway by Adam Fox
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·15:30
Max Domi Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·15:26
Dakota Joshua Wrist Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·15:19
Max Domi faceoff won against Mika Zibanejad
·
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·15:19
Icing
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·14:27
John Tavares Backhand Wide Left
·
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·14:26
John Tavares Wrist Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·14:13
Giveaway by Alexis Lafrenière
TOR 2·NYR 5
3rd·14:09
Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 2·NYR 5

Betting line

NYR -1.5·O/U 5.5·TOR +110/NYR -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Rangers held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 6–2.

NYR -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.5%

ensemble · NYR favored

Elo Static
54.5%
P(NYR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.5%
P(NYR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
54.5%
P(NYR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

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