Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at VAN?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TOR

TOR

25-21-9

VAN

18-31-6

NHLSat, Jan 31FinalSeriesTOR wins series 2-0VegasTOR -162

TOR · top performer

Auston Matthews

C · #34

1Points

—

SOG

VAN · top performer

Jonathan Lekkerimaki

RW · #23

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. DomiC · #11	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	20:08
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:16
M. KniesLW · #23	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	15:33
S. LaughtonC · #24	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	10:30
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	8:31
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	17:06
A. MatthewsC · #34	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	22:30
B. McMannC · #74	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	17:35
W. NylanderRW · #88	0	0	-1	5	0	1	0	20:29
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	1	0	3	1	2	0	13:02
N. RoyC · #55	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	14:00
J. TavaresC · #91	0	0	-1	4	1	0	0	19:03

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	23:44
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	28:10
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	27:40
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	12:34
M. RifaiD · #83	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	9:40
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	1	4	2	1	0	23:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WollG · #60	30	2	28	.933	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	18:07
F. ChytilC · #72	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	13:58
J. DeBruskLW · #74	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	17:23
C. GarlandRW · #8	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	18:50
D. KampfC · #64	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	16:46
E. KaneLW · #91	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	18:30
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	13:38
J. LekkerimakiRW · #23	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:06
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:43
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	15:03
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	18:48
A. RatyC · #54	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	11:42

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. HronekD · #17	0	0	0	2	4	3	0	27:38
P. JosephD · #7	0	1	0	2	0	2	0	17:22
T. MyersD · #57	0	0	-1	3	2	2	0	21:16
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	1	1	1	3	0	21:59
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	-1	0	0	3	2	21:11
T. WillanderD · #5	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	16:00

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. TolopiloG · #60	41	2	39	.951	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

VAN

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

TOR wins series 2-0

Jan 11

VAN0@

TOR5

Feb 1

TOR3@

VAN2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR-16262%

VAN+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat VAN 3-2. A. Matthews led the way — 1 A · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
TOR	0	1	1	0	1	3
VAN	0	2	0	0	0	2

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · VAN won 1

TOR

VAN

Play-by-play · 342 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
TOR 2·VAN 0
SO·0:00
End of OT
TOR 2·VAN 0
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
TOR 2·VAN 0
SO·0:00
Auston Matthews Goal Backhand
TOR 2·VAN 0
SO·0:00
Elias Pettersson Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
· ·
TOR 2·VAN 0
SO·0:00
William Nylander Goal Backhand
TOR 2·VAN 0
SO·0:00
Jake DeBrusk Snap Shot Hit Left Post
·
TOR 2·VAN 0
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
TOR 2·VAN 0
OT·5:00
End of OT
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·4:54
Auston Matthews Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·4:41
Elias Pettersson Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
· ·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·4:06
Takeaway by John Tavares
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·3:46
David Kampf faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·3:46
Auston Matthews Snap Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·3:46
Timeout - Visitor
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·3:46
Conor Garland PS - Tripping on breakaway against Auston Matthews
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·3:44
Auston Matthews Snap Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·3:36
Elias Pettersson Wrist Shot Wide Left
· ·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·3:18
Conor Garland Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·3:12
Conor Garland Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
· ·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·3:08
Takeaway by Jake DeBrusk
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·2:36
William Nylander Backhand Wide Left
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·2:28
Conor Garland Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
· ·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·2:28
Giveaway by Auston Matthews
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·2:12
Drew O'Connor shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·2:02
William Nylander Backhand saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·1:39
John Tavares Snap Shot Wide Right
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·1:23
David Kampf faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·1:23
Puck in Netting
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·1:19
John Tavares shot blocked by Filip Hronek
·
TOR 2·VAN 2

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR -162/VAN +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs went into Vancouver Canucks and beat them, 3–2.

VAN +1.5 cashed (TOR won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.7%

ensemble · VAN favored

Elo Static
50.7%
P(VAN win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.7%
P(VAN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.7%
P(VAN win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at VAN?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

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