NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TOR

TOR

25-21-9

VAN

18-31-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 31FinalSeriesTOR wins series 2-0VegasTOR -162

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs went into Vancouver Canucks and beat them, 3–2.

VAN +1.5 cashed (TOR won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

Max Domi

C · #11

1Points

—

SOG

VAN · top performer

Evander Kane

LW · #91

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

TOR25-21-9

VAN18-31-6

TOR25-21-9VAN18-31-6

TOR

25-21-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

VAN

18-31-6

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

TOR wins series 2-0

Jan 11

VAN0@

TOR5

Feb 1

TOR3@

VAN2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR-16262%

VAN+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat VAN 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
TOR	0	1	1	0	1	3
VAN	0	2	0	0	0	2

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · VAN won 1

TOR

VAN

Play-by-play · 342 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
TOR 2·VAN 0
SO·0:00
End of OT
TOR 2·VAN 0
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
TOR 2·VAN 0
SO·0:00
Auston Matthews Goal Backhand
TOR 2·VAN 0
SO·0:00
Elias Pettersson Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
· ·
TOR 2·VAN 0
SO·0:00
William Nylander Goal Backhand
TOR 2·VAN 0
SO·0:00
Jake DeBrusk Snap Shot Hit Left Post
·
TOR 2·VAN 0
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
TOR 2·VAN 0
OT·5:00
End of OT
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·4:54
Auston Matthews Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·4:41
Elias Pettersson Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
· ·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·4:06
Takeaway by John Tavares
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·3:46
David Kampf faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·3:46
Auston Matthews Snap Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·3:46
Timeout - Visitor
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·3:46
Conor Garland PS - Tripping on breakaway against Auston Matthews
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·3:44
Auston Matthews Snap Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·3:36
Elias Pettersson Wrist Shot Wide Left
· ·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·3:18
Conor Garland Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·3:12
Conor Garland Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
· ·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·3:08
Takeaway by Jake DeBrusk
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·2:36
William Nylander Backhand Wide Left
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·2:28
Conor Garland Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
· ·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·2:28
Giveaway by Auston Matthews
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·2:12
Drew O'Connor shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·2:02
William Nylander Backhand saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·1:39
John Tavares Snap Shot Wide Right
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·1:23
David Kampf faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·1:23
Puck in Netting
TOR 2·VAN 2
OT·1:19
John Tavares shot blocked by Filip Hronek
·
TOR 2·VAN 2

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

VAN

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR -162/VAN +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 24 skaters with EDGE

Bobby McMannSEA · C
SKATE MPH24.399
Filip HronekVAN · D
DIST MI292.398
Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
SHOT MPH94.596
Jake DeBruskVAN · LW
SKATE MPH23.595
Pierre-Olivier JosephVAN · D
SKATE MPH23.092

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · VAN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(VAN win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(VAN win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(VAN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

VAN vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 111 high confidence

Shots on goal

Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
Jake DeBruskVAN
3.1± 2.4high
William NylanderTOR
2.7± 2.3high

Goals

John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high
William NylanderTOR
0.5± 0.7high
Jake DeBruskVAN
0.5± 0.7high

Points

William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high
John TavaresTOR
1.0± 1.1high
Brock BoeserVAN
0.9± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands