NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NYI

NYI

39-24-5

TOR

29-28-12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 17FinalSeriesNYI lead series 2-0VegasNYI -162

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 3–1.

NYI -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYI · top performer

Mathew Barzal

C · #13

3Points

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

Bo Groulx

C · #29

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

NYI39-24-5

TOR29-28-12

NYI39-24-5TOR29-28-12

NYI

39-24-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

TOR

29-28-12

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

NYI lead series 2-0

Jan 4

TOR3@

NYI4

Mar 17

NYI3@

TOR1today

Apr 9

TOR3@

NYI5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYI-16262%

TOR+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat TOR 3-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYI	2	1	0	3
TOR	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

NYI won 1 · TOR won 0

NYI

TOR

Play-by-play · 317 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·19:59
John Tavares Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·19:58
Matthew Knies Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·19:57
Max Domi Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·19:55
Max Domi shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·19:45
Max Domi Snap Shot Wide Left
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·18:56
Giveaway by Max Domi
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·18:24
Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by William Nylander
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·18:09
Brayden Schenn Snap Shot Wide Right
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·17:42
Emil Heineman Tip-In Wide Right
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·17:37
Emil Heineman Tip-In saved by Joseph Woll
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·17:32
Emil Heineman Tip-In saved by Joseph Woll
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·17:28
Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by Jacob Quillan
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·16:54
Anders Lee Tip-In Wide Left
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·16:34
Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by Steven Lorentz
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·16:04
Anders Lee Tip-In saved by Joseph Woll
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·15:39
Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Emil Heineman
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·15:39
On-Ice Official
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·15:32
Bo Horvat Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·14:58
Brandon Carlo Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·14:57
Calle Jarnkrok faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·14:57
John Tavares High-sticking - double minor against Adam Pelech
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·14:14
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against John Tavares
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·14:14
Goalie Stopped
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·14:12
Max Domi Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·12:53
John Tavares faceoff won against Casey Cizikas
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·12:53
Goalie Stopped
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·12:51
Mathew Barzal Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·12:18
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Bo Groulx
·
NYI 3·TOR 1

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYI -162/TOR +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
BURSTS26999+
Ryan PulockNYI · D
SHOT MPH103.099+
Mathew BarzalNYI · C
DIST MI274.399
Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
SHOT MPH97.399
Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
SHOT MPH94.596

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

TOR vs NYI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 111 high confidence

Shots on goal

Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
Bo HorvatNYI
2.9± 0.9high
Kyle PalmieriNYI
2.7± 1.6high

Goals

John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high
William NylanderTOR
0.5± 0.7high
Anders LeeNYI
0.3± 0.5high

Points

William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high
John TavaresTOR
1.0± 1.1high
Mathew BarzalNYI
0.8± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands