Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYI at TOR?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NYI

NYI

39-24-5

TOR

29-28-12

NHLTue, Mar 17FinalSeriesNYI lead series 2-0VegasNYI -162

NYI · top performer

Emil Heineman

LW · #51

1Points

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

Steven Lorentz

C · #18

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	3	1	1	0	1	0	18:31
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	12:19
A. DuclairLW · #11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:36
E. HeinemanLW · #51	1	0	1	6	2	0	0	15:32
S. HolmstromRW · #92	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	18:21
B. HorvatC · #14	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	17:54
A. LeeLW · #27	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	16:54
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	10:01
J. PageauC · #44	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	15:57
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	10:01
C. RitchieC · #64	1	1	-1	4	0	0	0	15:06
B. SchennC · #10	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:57

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	20:22
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	16:19
A. PelechD · #3	0	0	0	1	2	1	4	17:35
R. PulockD · #6	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	20:25
M. SchaeferD · #48	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	22:57
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	16:13

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SorokinG · #30	27	1	26	.963	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:30
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	15:10
B. GroulxC · #29	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	12:13
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	10:32
D. JoshuaC · #81	0	0	0	0	6	0	2	11:26
M. KniesLW · #23	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	19:01
S. LorentzC · #18	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	12:03
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	18:19
W. NylanderRW · #88	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	22:35
J. QuillanC · #26	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	10:48
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	11:49
J. TavaresC · #91	0	0	-1	3	0	0	4	20:16

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	0	4	1	0	2	19:05
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	25:53
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	22:28
P. MyersD · #51	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	13:45
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	0	0	1	2	7	18:21
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WollG · #60	34	3	31	.912	58:33

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NYI lead series 2-0

Jan 4

TOR3@

NYI4

Mar 17

NYI3@

TOR1today

Apr 9

TOR3@

NYI5

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYI-16262%

TOR+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 18 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat TOR 3-1. E. Heineman led the way — 1 G · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYI	2	1	0	3
TOR	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

NYI won 1 · TOR won 0

NYI

TOR

Play-by-play · 317 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·19:59
John Tavares Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·19:58
Matthew Knies Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·19:57
Max Domi Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·19:55
Max Domi shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·19:45
Max Domi Snap Shot Wide Left
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·18:56
Giveaway by Max Domi
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·18:24
Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by William Nylander
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·18:09
Brayden Schenn Snap Shot Wide Right
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·17:42
Emil Heineman Tip-In Wide Right
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·17:37
Emil Heineman Tip-In saved by Joseph Woll
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·17:32
Emil Heineman Tip-In saved by Joseph Woll
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·17:28
Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by Jacob Quillan
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·16:54
Anders Lee Tip-In Wide Left
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·16:34
Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by Steven Lorentz
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·16:04
Anders Lee Tip-In saved by Joseph Woll
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·15:39
Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Emil Heineman
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·15:39
On-Ice Official
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·15:32
Bo Horvat Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·14:58
Brandon Carlo Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·14:57
Calle Jarnkrok faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·14:57
John Tavares High-sticking - double minor against Adam Pelech
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·14:14
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against John Tavares
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·14:14
Goalie Stopped
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·14:12
Max Domi Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·12:53
John Tavares faceoff won against Casey Cizikas
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·12:53
Goalie Stopped
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·12:51
Mathew Barzal Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
NYI 3·TOR 1
3rd·12:18
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Bo Groulx
·
NYI 3·TOR 1

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYI -162/TOR +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 3–1.

NYI -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Emil Heineman · NYI15:360.8555.3%72.0%15:36 TOI · 0.85 iXG · 55.3% CF · 72.0% xGF
John Tavares · TOR20:240.8351.1%47.6%20:24 TOI · 0.83 iXG · 51.1% CF · 47.6% xGF
Matthew Knies · TOR18:420.5847.5%59.4%18:42 TOI · 0.58 iXG · 47.5% CF · 59.4% xGF
Bo Horvat · NYI18:060.4959.0%78.1%18:06 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 59.0% CF · 78.1% xGF
Max Domi · TOR15:120.4944.7%66.6%15:12 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 44.7% CF · 66.6% xGF
Anders Lee · NYI17:060.4761.3%47.8%17:06 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 61.3% CF · 47.8% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Ilya Sorokin · NYI26–1.963+1.9426–1 · .963 SV% · +1.94 GSAx
Joseph Woll · PHI31–3.912+0.5131–3 · .912 SV% · +0.51 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.6%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
48.6%
P(TOR win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
48.6%
P(TOR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
48.6%
P(TOR win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYI at TOR?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

New York IslandersToronto Maple Leafs

Elsewhere in the NHL