NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3SEA

TOR

24-21-9

SEA

25-19-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesSEA wins series 2-0VegasTOR -118

Recap · NHL

eattle Kraken held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 5–2.

SEA +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

Max Domi

C · #11

1Points

—

SOG

SEA · top performer

Jared McCann

LW · #19

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

TOR24-21-9

SEA25-19-9

TOR24-21-9SEA25-19-9

TOR

24-21-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

SEA

25-19-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

SEA wins series 2-0

Oct 18

SEA4@

TOR3

Jan 30

TOR2@

SEA5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR-11854%

SEA-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SEA beat TOR 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	1	0	1	2
SEA	1	2	2	5

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · SEA won 2

TOR

SEA

Play-by-play · 296 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 2·SEA 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 2·SEA 5
3rd·19:38
Brandon Montour shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
·
TOR 2·SEA 5
3rd·19:06
Giveaway by Ryan Lindgren
TOR 2·SEA 5
3rd·18:26
Jacob Melanson hit Morgan Rielly
·
TOR 2·SEA 5
3rd·17:54
Kaapo Kakko Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 2·SEA 5
3rd·17:23
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Shane Wright
·
TOR 2·SEA 5
3rd·17:23
Jared McCann Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (6)
·
TOR 2·SEA 5
3rd·16:50
John Tavares Snap Shot Off Crossbar
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·16:36
Giveaway by Matthew Knies
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·16:15
Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by Ryan Lindgren
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·16:13
Freddy Gaudreau faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·16:13
Goalie Stopped
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·16:11
Nicholas Robertson Snap Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·16:05
Giveaway by Adam Larsson
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·15:50
John Tavares faceoff won against Matty Beniers
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·15:50
Goalie Stopped
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·15:48
Jared McCann Backhand Wide Right
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·15:14
Nicholas Robertson Wrap-around Wide Left
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·14:26
Giveaway by Eeli Tolvanen
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·14:07
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Auston Matthews
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·14:07
Puck in Crowd
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·13:30
Oliver Ekman-Larsson hit Jared McCann
· ·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·13:25
Giveaway by Anthony Stolarz
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·12:54
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·12:54
Puck in Crowd
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·12:48
Freddy Gaudreau faceoff won against Scott Laughton
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·12:48
Goalie Stopped
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·12:46
Morgan Rielly Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·12:32
Giveaway by Frederick Gaudreau
TOR 2·SEA 4

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR -118/SEA -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE

Brandon MontourSEA · D
SHOT MPH101.698
Matty BeniersSEA · C
DIST MI267.798
Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
SHOT MPH94.596
Jared McCannSEA · LW
SHOT MPH94.496
Jordan EberleSEA · RW
DIST MI236.192

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

SEA vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 120 high confidence

Shots on goal

Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
Bobby McMannSEA
3.0± 1.8high
Brandon MontourSEA
3.0± 1.3high

Goals

John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high
William NylanderTOR
0.5± 0.7high
Bobby McMannSEA
0.3± 0.5high

Points

William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high
John TavaresTOR
1.0± 1.1high
Matthew KniesTOR
0.8± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands