Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3SEA

TOR

24-21-9

SEA

25-19-9

NHLThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesSEA wins series 2-0VegasTOR -118

TOR · top performer

Morgan Rielly

D · #44

1Points

—

SOG

SEA · top performer

Shane Wright

C · #51

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	9:44
M. DomiC · #11	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	19:51
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:20
M. KniesLW · #23	0	0	-4	3	0	0	0	16:04
S. LaughtonC · #24	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	12:53
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:53
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	0	-3	1	0	0	0	11:10
A. MatthewsC · #34	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	21:00
B. McMannC · #74	0	0	-1	3	2	0	0	16:56
N. RobertsonLW · #89	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:12
N. RoyC · #55	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	16:52
J. TavaresC · #91	0	0	-3	3	1	0	0	15:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	-1	1	3	3	0	14:01
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	-2	1	3	1	2	17:58
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	0	-2	1	3	0	0	22:36
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	0	5	1	1	0	22:55
M. RiellyD · #44	1	0	-1	3	0	2	0	22:53
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	-1	2	1	2	2	13:36

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. StolarzG · #41	21	4	17	.810	58:34

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:37
B. CattonC · #27	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:12
J. EberleRW · #7	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	14:48
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	20:11
K. KakkoRW · #84	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	14:34
J. McCannLW · #19	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	16:12
J. MelansonRW · #63	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	13:01
J. SchwartzC · #17	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	12:28
C. StephensonC · #9	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	19:40
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	0	1	4	1	1	0	18:41
R. WintertonC · #26	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:32
S. WrightC · #51	2	0	2	2	0	1	2	15:41

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	19:14
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	16:44
A. LarssonD · #6	0	1	1	1	0	0	2	18:33
R. LindgrenD · #55	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	20:05
B. MontourD · #62	1	1	4	2	2	2	0	21:39
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	1	3	0	0	2	0	20:01

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DaccordG · #35	31	2	29	.935	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

SEA wins series 2-0

Oct 18

SEA4@

TOR3

Jan 30

TOR2@

SEA5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR-11854%

SEA-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SEA beat TOR 5-2. S. Wright led the way — 2 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	1	0	1	2
SEA	1	2	2	5

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · SEA won 2

TOR

SEA

Play-by-play · 296 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 2·SEA 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 2·SEA 5
3rd·19:38
Brandon Montour shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
·
TOR 2·SEA 5
3rd·19:06
Giveaway by Ryan Lindgren
TOR 2·SEA 5
3rd·18:26
Jacob Melanson hit Morgan Rielly
·
TOR 2·SEA 5
3rd·17:54
Kaapo Kakko Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 2·SEA 5
3rd·17:23
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Shane Wright
·
TOR 2·SEA 5
3rd·17:23
Jared McCann Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (6)
·
TOR 2·SEA 5
3rd·16:50
John Tavares Snap Shot Off Crossbar
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·16:36
Giveaway by Matthew Knies
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·16:15
Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by Ryan Lindgren
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·16:13
Freddy Gaudreau faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·16:13
Goalie Stopped
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·16:11
Nicholas Robertson Snap Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·16:05
Giveaway by Adam Larsson
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·15:50
John Tavares faceoff won against Matty Beniers
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·15:50
Goalie Stopped
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·15:48
Jared McCann Backhand Wide Right
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·15:14
Nicholas Robertson Wrap-around Wide Left
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·14:26
Giveaway by Eeli Tolvanen
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·14:07
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Auston Matthews
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·14:07
Puck in Crowd
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·13:30
Oliver Ekman-Larsson hit Jared McCann
· ·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·13:25
Giveaway by Anthony Stolarz
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·12:54
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·12:54
Puck in Crowd
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·12:48
Freddy Gaudreau faceoff won against Scott Laughton
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·12:48
Goalie Stopped
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·12:46
Morgan Rielly Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
TOR 2·SEA 4
3rd·12:32
Giveaway by Frederick Gaudreau
TOR 2·SEA 4

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR -118/SEA -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

eattle Kraken held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 5–2.

SEA +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.9%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
57.9%
P(SEA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.9%
P(SEA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.9%
P(SEA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

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