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FINAL+3TOR
TOR

TOR

27-21-9

52
EDM

EDM

28-21-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Feb 3FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasEDM -192

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs went into Edmonton Oilers and beat them, 5–2.

TOR +1.5 cashed (EDM lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Matthew Knies

Matthew Knies

LW · #23

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

EDM
Kasperi Kapanen

Kasperi Kapanen

RW · #42

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
2
TOR27-21-9EDM28-21-8
TOR

TOR

27-21-9

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
EDM

EDM

28-21-8

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

PIM

21

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 14EDMEDM6@TORTOR3
Feb 4TORTOR5@EDMEDM2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR+16038%
EDMEDM-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat EDM 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
TOR0235
EDM0112

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · EDM won 0

0
0

1

2
1

2

3
1

3

TOR
EDM

Play-by-play · 296 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    TOR 5·EDM 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    TOR 5·EDM 2

  3. 3rd·19:28

    Josh Samanski faceoff won against Scott Laughton

    ·

    TOR 5·EDM 2

  4. 3rd·19:28

    Puck in Benches

    TOR 5·EDM 2

  5. 3rd·18:56

    Josh Samanski faceoff won against Nicolas Roy

    ·

    TOR 5·EDM 2

  6. 3rd·18:56

    Trent Frederic Misconduct

    TOR 5·EDM 2

  7. 3rd·18:56

    Puck in Netting

    TOR 5·EDM 2

  8. 3rd·18:53

    Oliver Ekman-Larsson Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    TOR 5·EDM 2

  9. 3rd·17:22

    Nicolas Roy faceoff won against Trent Frederic

    ·

    TOR 5·EDM 2

  10. 3rd·17:22

    Bobby McMann Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (22)

    ·

    TOR 5·EDM 2

  11. 3rd·17:10

    Leon Draisaitl Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    TOR 4·EDM 2

  12. 3rd·16:34

    Giveaway by Darnell Nurse

    TOR 4·EDM 2

  13. 3rd·15:47

    Steven Lorentz hit Matt Savoie

    ·

    TOR 4·EDM 2

  14. 3rd·15:42

    Trent Frederic hit Jake McCabe

    ·

    TOR 4·EDM 2

  15. 3rd·15:30

    Scott Laughton hit Ty Emberson

    ·

    TOR 4·EDM 2

  16. 3rd·15:01

    Leon Draisaitl Snap Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz

    ·

    TOR 4·EDM 2

  17. 3rd·14:55

    Connor McDavid shot blocked by Simon Benoit

    ·

    TOR 4·EDM 2

  18. 3rd·13:46

    Jake McCabe Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    TOR 4·EDM 2

  19. 3rd·13:38

    Darnell Nurse shot blocked by Brandon Carlo

    ·

    TOR 4·EDM 2

  20. 3rd·13:36

    Josh Samanski faceoff won against John Tavares

    ·

    TOR 4·EDM 2

  21. 3rd·13:36

    High Stick

    TOR 4·EDM 2

  22. 3rd·13:31

    Giveaway by William Nylander

    TOR 4·EDM 2

  23. 3rd·12:34

    Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Nicholas Robertson

    ·

    TOR 4·EDM 2

  24. 3rd·12:12

    Max Domi shot blocked by Evan Bouchard

    ·

    TOR 4·EDM 2

  25. 3rd·11:14

    Jack Roslovic Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz

    ·

    TOR 4·EDM 2

  26. 3rd·11:02

    Darnell Nurse hit Calle Jarnkrok

    ·

    TOR 4·EDM 2

  27. 3rd·11:01

    Trent Frederic hit Troy Stecher

    · ·

    TOR 4·EDM 2

  28. 3rd·10:44

    Scott Laughton Wrist Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    TOR 4·EDM 2

  29. 3rd·10:44

    Giveaway by Darnell Nurse

    TOR 4·EDM 2

  30. 3rd·10:34

    Jack Roslovic faceoff won against Scott Laughton

    ·

    TOR 4·EDM 2

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

27

Shots

36

100.0

PCT

0.0

9

PIM

21

29

Faceoffs W

25

18

Blocks

7

18

Giveaways

13

4

Takeaways

3

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +160/EDM -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Bobby McMannSEA · C
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Jake WalmanEDM · D
    SHOT MPH99.599
  • Connor McDavidEDM · C
    BURSTS5498
  • Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
    SHOT MPH94.596
  • Evan BouchardEDM · D
    SHOT MPH97.395

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · EDM favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR