Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at EDM?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3TOR

TOR

27-21-9

EDM

28-21-8

NHLTue, Feb 3FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasEDM -192

TOR · top performer

Matias Maccelli

LW · #63

2Points

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

Jake Walman

D · #96

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. DomiC · #11	0	1	-1	2	0	1	0	17:00
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	9:20
M. KniesLW · #23	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	15:28
S. LaughtonC · #24	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	15:05
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	11:09
M. MaccelliLW · #63	2	0	1	4	0	2	0	11:29
A. MatthewsC · #34	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	21:11
B. McMannC · #74	1	0	0	5	4	0	0	17:36
W. NylanderRW · #88	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	17:46
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	11:25
N. RoyC · #55	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:42
J. TavaresC · #91	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	14:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	17:47
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	1	1	1	3	5	19:22
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	1	-2	0	0	0	4	22:19
J. McCabeD · #22	0	1	2	4	1	3	0	25:16
P. MyersD · #51	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	11:36
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	22:35

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. StolarzG · #41	36	2	34	.944	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DraisaitlC · #29	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	20:47
T. FredericC · #10	0	0	-1	2	4	0	10	11:35
Z. HymanLW · #18	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	18:07
M. JanmarkC · #13	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	10:30
K. KapanenRW · #42	1	0	1	3	4	0	0	15:03
A. MangiapaneLW · #88	0	0	-1	3	1	0	2	8:14
C. McDavidC · #97	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	21:49
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:18
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	14:14
J. RoslovicC · #28	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	16:11
J. SamanskiC · #81	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	9:55
M. SavoieC · #22	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	13:01

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	24:33
M. EkholmD · #14	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	20:54
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	17:04
D. NurseD · #25	0	0	0	4	5	1	5	19:26
S. StastneyD · #24	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:42
J. WalmanD · #96	1	0	0	4	1	1	0	21:34

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. IngramG · #39	26	4	22	.846	59:30

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 14

EDM6@

TOR3

Feb 4

TOR5@

EDM2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+16038%

EDM-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat EDM 5-2. M. Maccelli led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	2	3	5
EDM	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · EDM won 0

TOR

EDM

Play-by-play · 296 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 5·EDM 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 5·EDM 2
3rd·19:28
Josh Samanski faceoff won against Scott Laughton
·
TOR 5·EDM 2
3rd·19:28
Puck in Benches
TOR 5·EDM 2
3rd·18:56
Josh Samanski faceoff won against Nicolas Roy
·
TOR 5·EDM 2
3rd·18:56
Trent Frederic Misconduct
TOR 5·EDM 2
3rd·18:56
Puck in Netting
TOR 5·EDM 2
3rd·18:53
Oliver Ekman-Larsson Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 5·EDM 2
3rd·17:22
Nicolas Roy faceoff won against Trent Frederic
·
TOR 5·EDM 2
3rd·17:22
Bobby McMann Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (22)
·
TOR 5·EDM 2
3rd·17:10
Leon Draisaitl Snap Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 4·EDM 2
3rd·16:34
Giveaway by Darnell Nurse
TOR 4·EDM 2
3rd·15:47
Steven Lorentz hit Matt Savoie
·
TOR 4·EDM 2
3rd·15:42
Trent Frederic hit Jake McCabe
·
TOR 4·EDM 2
3rd·15:30
Scott Laughton hit Ty Emberson
·
TOR 4·EDM 2
3rd·15:01
Leon Draisaitl Snap Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 4·EDM 2
3rd·14:55
Connor McDavid shot blocked by Simon Benoit
·
TOR 4·EDM 2
3rd·13:46
Jake McCabe Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
TOR 4·EDM 2
3rd·13:38
Darnell Nurse shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
·
TOR 4·EDM 2
3rd·13:36
Josh Samanski faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 4·EDM 2
3rd·13:36
High Stick
TOR 4·EDM 2
3rd·13:31
Giveaway by William Nylander
TOR 4·EDM 2
3rd·12:34
Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Nicholas Robertson
·
TOR 4·EDM 2
3rd·12:12
Max Domi shot blocked by Evan Bouchard
·
TOR 4·EDM 2
3rd·11:14
Jack Roslovic Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 4·EDM 2
3rd·11:02
Darnell Nurse hit Calle Jarnkrok
·
TOR 4·EDM 2
3rd·11:01
Trent Frederic hit Troy Stecher
· ·
TOR 4·EDM 2
3rd·10:44
Scott Laughton Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
TOR 4·EDM 2
3rd·10:44
Giveaway by Darnell Nurse
TOR 4·EDM 2
3rd·10:34
Jack Roslovic faceoff won against Scott Laughton
·
TOR 4·EDM 2

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +160/EDM -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs went into Edmonton Oilers and beat them, 5–2.

TOR +1.5 cashed (EDM lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.4%

ensemble · EDM favored

Elo Static
59.4%
P(EDM win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.4%
P(EDM win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
59.4%
P(EDM win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at EDM?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

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