Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at ANA?

The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TOR

TOR

32-30-13

ANA

41-28-5

NHLMon, Mar 30FinalSeriesTOR wins series 2-0VegasANA -192

TOR · top performer

William Nylander

RW · #88

4Points

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

Leo Carlsson

C · #91

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	0	2	3	3	1	1	2	19:08
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	-1	0	0	1	20	7:06
B. GroulxC · #29	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	19:34
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:51
D. JoshuaC · #81	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	14:20
M. KniesLW · #23	1	0	-2	1	4	0	2	19:11
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	12:48
W. NylanderRW · #88	1	3	0	8	0	0	2	23:35
M. PezzettaLW · #61	0	0	0	0	4	0	22	3:06
J. QuillanC · #26	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:19
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:14
J. TavaresC · #91	2	1	1	4	3	0	0	21:04

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	1	2	4	2	0	17:02
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	21:50
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	2	1	2	0	3	0	18:32
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	-2	1	2	3	16	20:09
M. RiellyD · #44	1	1	2	2	1	2	0	23:10
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	-3	0	0	1	0	20:06

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. StolarzG · #41	32	4	28	.875	64:45

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	2	0	2	4	0	2	2	18:46
C. GauthierLW · #61	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	3:20
M. GranlundC · #64	0	1	-2	1	0	0	0	24:53
A. KillornLW · #17	0	0	-2	0	2	0	0	18:37
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	1	1	3	1	1	2	22:01
M. McTavishC · #23	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	14:01
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	1	2	0	1	2	15:13
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	1	0	3	2	0	0	15:50
T. TerryRW · #19	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	20:01
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	-1	4	3	0	2	11:45
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	15:37

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	1	0	1	4	0	2	0	26:47
R. GudasD · #7	0	0	0	0	0	0	17	7:05
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	2	1	1	3	1	0	24:53
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	-1	2	1	0	7	18:20
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	13:06
J. TroubaD · #65	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	25:50
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	13:18

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. HussoG · #33	29	5	24	.828	64:55

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

16.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

TOR wins series 2-0

Mar 12

ANA4@

TOR6

Mar 31

TOR5@

ANA4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+16038%

ANA-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 54 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat ANA 5-4. W. Nylander led the way — 1 G · 3 A · 8 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
TOR	1	0	3	1	5
ANA	2	1	1	0	4

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · ANA won 2

TOR

ANA

Play-by-play · 368 plays

period

event

player

OT·4:55
Game End
TOR 5·ANA 4
OT·4:55
End of OT
TOR 5·ANA 4
OT·4:55
John Tavares Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (25), Easton Cowan (15)
· ·
TOR 5·ANA 4
OT·4:08
William Nylander Snap Shot saved by Ville Husso
·
TOR 4·ANA 4
OT·3:58
Troy Terry Snap Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 4·ANA 4
OT·3:27
Jackson LaCombe Backhand High and Wide Right
·
TOR 4·ANA 4
OT·3:19
Tim Washe faceoff won against Bo Groulx
·
TOR 4·ANA 4
OT·3:19
Goalie Stopped
TOR 4·ANA 4
OT·3:17
Leo Carlsson Backhand saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 4·ANA 4
OT·2:56
Mikael Granlund Snap Shot Wide Right
·
TOR 4·ANA 4
OT·2:39
William Nylander Snap Shot saved by Ville Husso
·
TOR 4·ANA 4
OT·2:32
Mikael Granlund shot blocked by Jake McCabe
·
TOR 4·ANA 4
OT·2:08
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 4·ANA 4
OT·2:08
On-Ice Official
TOR 4·ANA 4
OT·2:06
Tim Washe Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 4·ANA 4
OT·1:42
Jacob Trouba Slap Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 4·ANA 4
OT·0:30
John Tavares shot blocked by Chris Kreider
·
TOR 4·ANA 4
OT·0:00
John Tavares faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
TOR 4·ANA 4
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
TOR 4·ANA 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 4·ANA 4
3rd·19:29
John Tavares faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
·
TOR 4·ANA 4
3rd·19:29
Goalie Stopped
TOR 4·ANA 4
3rd·19:27
Pavel Mintyukov Snap Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 4·ANA 4
3rd·19:25
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 4·ANA 4
3rd·19:25
Icing
TOR 4·ANA 4
3rd·19:23
Tim Washe hit Brandon Carlo
·
TOR 4·ANA 4
3rd·19:08
Giveaway by Troy Terry
TOR 4·ANA 4
3rd·18:40
Giveaway by Jacob Trouba
TOR 4·ANA 4
3rd·18:21
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Bo Groulx
·
TOR 4·ANA 4
3rd·18:21
Leo Carlsson Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (23), Jackson LaCombe (44)
· ·
TOR 4·ANA 4

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +160/ANA -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs went into Anaheim Ducks and beat them, 5–4 in overtime.

TOR +1.5 cashed (ANA lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.4%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
65.4%
P(ANA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
65.4%
P(ANA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
65.4%
P(ANA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-192

Close price

-192

Open no-vig

63.1%

Close no-vig

63.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at ANA?: The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Toronto Maple LeafsAnaheim Ducks

Elsewhere in the NHL