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FINAL+1TOR
TOR

TOR

32-30-13

54
ANA

ANA

41-28-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Mar 30FinalSeriesTOR wins series 2-0VegasANA -192

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs went into Anaheim Ducks and beat them, 5–4 in overtime.

TOR +1.5 cashed (ANA lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
William Nylander

William Nylander

RW · #88

4Points

1

G

3

A

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

ANA
Leo Carlsson

Leo Carlsson

C · #91

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
5
4
TOR32-30-13ANA41-28-5
TOR

TOR

32-30-13

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
ANA

ANA

41-28-5

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

66

PIM

32

Season series

TOR wins series 2-0

Mar 12ANAANA4@TORTOR6
Mar 31TORTOR5@ANAANA4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR+16038%
ANAANA-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat ANA 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
TOR10315
ANA21104

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · ANA won 2

1
2

1

0
1

2

3
1

3

1
0

OT

TOR
ANA

Play-by-play · 368 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·4:55

    Game End

    TOR 5·ANA 4

  2. OT·4:55

    End of OT

    TOR 5·ANA 4

  3. OT·4:55

    John Tavares Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (25), Easton Cowan (15)

    · ·

    TOR 5·ANA 4

  4. OT·4:08

    William Nylander Snap Shot saved by Ville Husso

    ·

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  5. OT·3:58

    Troy Terry Snap Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz

    ·

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  6. OT·3:27

    Jackson LaCombe Backhand High and Wide Right

    ·

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  7. OT·3:19

    Tim Washe faceoff won against Bo Groulx

    ·

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  8. OT·3:19

    Goalie Stopped

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  9. OT·3:17

    Leo Carlsson Backhand saved by Anthony Stolarz

    ·

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  10. OT·2:56

    Mikael Granlund Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  11. OT·2:39

    William Nylander Snap Shot saved by Ville Husso

    ·

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  12. OT·2:32

    Mikael Granlund shot blocked by Jake McCabe

    ·

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  13. OT·2:08

    Ryan Poehling faceoff won against John Tavares

    ·

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  14. OT·2:08

    On-Ice Official

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  15. OT·2:06

    Tim Washe Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz

    ·

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  16. OT·1:42

    Jacob Trouba Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  17. OT·0:30

    John Tavares shot blocked by Chris Kreider

    ·

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  18. OT·0:00

    John Tavares faceoff won against Mikael Granlund

    ·

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  19. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  20. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  21. 3rd·19:29

    John Tavares faceoff won against Ryan Poehling

    ·

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  22. 3rd·19:29

    Goalie Stopped

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  23. 3rd·19:27

    Pavel Mintyukov Snap Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz

    ·

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  24. 3rd·19:25

    Ryan Poehling faceoff won against John Tavares

    ·

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  25. 3rd·19:25

    Icing

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  26. 3rd·19:23

    Tim Washe hit Brandon Carlo

    ·

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  27. 3rd·19:08

    Giveaway by Troy Terry

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  28. 3rd·18:40

    Giveaway by Jacob Trouba

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  29. 3rd·18:21

    Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Bo Groulx

    ·

    TOR 4·ANA 4

  30. 3rd·18:21

    Leo Carlsson Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (23), Jackson LaCombe (44)

    · ·

    TOR 4·ANA 4

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

29

Shots

32

50.0

PCT

16.7

66

PIM

32

28

Faceoffs W

37

15

Blocks

10

15

Giveaways

23

4

Takeaways

6

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +160/ANA -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • John CarlsonANA · D
    SHOT MPH102.799+
  • Beckett SenneckeANA · RW
    SHOT MPH96.199+
  • Ryan PoehlingANA · C
    SKATE MPH23.498
  • Leo CarlssonANA · C
    BURSTS4996
  • Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
    SHOT MPH94.596

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · ANA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-192

Close price

-192

Open no-vig

63.1%

Close no-vig

63.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR