Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at SJ?

The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3SJ

TOR

32-31-13

36-31-7

NHLThu, Apr 2FinalSeriesSJ wins series 2-0VegasSJ -135

TOR · top performer

William Nylander

RW · #88

1Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

William Eklund

LW · #72

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	0	1	-1	0	0	0	0	19:22
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	15:42
B. GroulxC · #29	0	0	-2	0	3	1	0	15:11
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	13:02
D. JoshuaC · #81	0	0	-2	2	4	0	4	14:29
M. KniesLW · #23	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	17:36
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	14:03
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	13:52
W. NylanderRW · #88	0	1	-1	3	1	0	0	18:45
J. QuillanC · #26	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:32
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	11:43
J. TavaresC · #91	1	0	-1	1	0	0	0	19:13

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	-2	2	1	4	0	18:49
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	17:57
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	7:03
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	-2	0	1	4	0	25:36
P. MyersD · #51	0	0	0	4	1	2	0	22:52
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	22:56

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. StolarzG · #41	24	3	21	.875	57:17

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	21:06
I. ChernyshovLW · #92	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	18:24
W. EklundLW · #72	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	15:01
A. GaudetteRW · #81	1	0	2	3	1	3	0	11:02
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	12:07
C. GrafRW · #51	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	13:53
M. MisaC · #77	0	1	1	0	0	1	2	14:24
Z. OstapchukC · #63	1	1	2	1	4	2	0	11:15
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	17:05
W. SmithC · #2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	16:43
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:36
A. WennbergC · #21	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	18:21

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	3	1	0	1	0	19:05
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	20:49
M. FerraroD · #38	0	0	1	0	2	2	0	20:44
N. LeddyD · #4	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:56
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	18:24
D. OrlovD · #9	0	1	2	4	1	1	0	18:57

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NedeljkovicG · #33	20	1	19	.950	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

SJ wins series 2-0

Dec 12

SJ3@

TOR2

Apr 3

TOR1@

SJ4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+11447%

SJ-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 86 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat TOR 4-1. W. Eklund led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	1	0	1
SJ	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · SJ won 2

TOR

Play-by-play · 314 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 1·SJ 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 1·SJ 4
3rd·19:03
Michael Misa faceoff won against Jacob Quillan
·
TOR 1·SJ 4
3rd·19:03
Adam Gaudette Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (32), Zack Ostapchuk (3)
· ·
TOR 1·SJ 4
3rd·18:59
Jake McCabe hit Zack Ostapchuk
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·18:51
Dakota Joshua Tip-In saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·18:38
Takeaway by Dakota Joshua
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·18:29
Bo Groulx faceoff won against Adam Gaudette
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·18:29
Off-side
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·18:17
William Nylander hit Macklin Celebrini
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·18:09
Giveaway by Macklin Celebrini
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·18:00
William Nylander Snap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·17:22
John Tavares Tip-In Wide Left
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·17:05
Max Domi shot blocked by Zack Ostapchuk
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·16:22
Giveaway by Easton Cowan
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·16:02
Steven Lorentz hit Mario Ferraro
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·15:56
Collin Graf hit Calle Jarnkrok
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·15:52
Collin Graf Tip-In Wide Left
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·15:44
Bo Groulx hit Alexander Wennberg
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·15:23
Bo Groulx faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·15:23
Goalie Stopped
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·15:21
Will Smith Slap Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·15:11
Giveaway by Philippe Myers
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·14:16
John Tavares Tip-In Wide Left
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·13:40
William Nylander shot blocked by William Eklund
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·13:34
Jake McCabe Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·13:22
John Tavares faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·13:22
Hand Pass
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·13:07
Matthew Knies hit Mario Ferraro
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·12:51
Adam Gaudette faceoff won against Max Domi
·
TOR 1·SJ 3

Betting line

SJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +114/SJ -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 4–1.

SJ -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.9%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
59.9%
P(SJ win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.9%
P(SJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
59.9%
P(SJ win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at SJ?: The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Toronto Maple LeafsSan Jose Sharks

Elsewhere in the NHL