NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3SJ

TOR

32-31-13

36-31-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Apr 2FinalSeriesSJ wins series 2-0VegasSJ -135

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 4–1.

SJ -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

Easton Cowan

RW · #53

1Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

William Eklund

LW · #72

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

TOR32-31-13

SJ36-31-7

TOR32-31-13SJ36-31-7

TOR

32-31-13

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

36-31-7

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

SJ wins series 2-0

Dec 12

SJ3@

TOR2

Apr 3

TOR1@

SJ4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+11447%

SJ-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat TOR 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	1	0	1
SJ	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · SJ won 2

TOR

Play-by-play · 314 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 1·SJ 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 1·SJ 4
3rd·19:03
Michael Misa faceoff won against Jacob Quillan
·
TOR 1·SJ 4
3rd·19:03
Adam Gaudette Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (32), Zack Ostapchuk (3)
· ·
TOR 1·SJ 4
3rd·18:59
Jake McCabe hit Zack Ostapchuk
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·18:51
Dakota Joshua Tip-In saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·18:38
Takeaway by Dakota Joshua
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·18:29
Bo Groulx faceoff won against Adam Gaudette
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·18:29
Off-side
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·18:17
William Nylander hit Macklin Celebrini
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·18:09
Giveaway by Macklin Celebrini
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·18:00
William Nylander Snap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·17:22
John Tavares Tip-In Wide Left
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·17:05
Max Domi shot blocked by Zack Ostapchuk
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·16:22
Giveaway by Easton Cowan
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·16:02
Steven Lorentz hit Mario Ferraro
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·15:56
Collin Graf hit Calle Jarnkrok
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·15:52
Collin Graf Tip-In Wide Left
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·15:44
Bo Groulx hit Alexander Wennberg
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·15:23
Bo Groulx faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·15:23
Goalie Stopped
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·15:21
Will Smith Slap Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·15:11
Giveaway by Philippe Myers
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·14:16
John Tavares Tip-In Wide Left
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·13:40
William Nylander shot blocked by William Eklund
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·13:34
Jake McCabe Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·13:22
John Tavares faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·13:22
Hand Pass
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·13:07
Matthew Knies hit Mario Ferraro
·
TOR 1·SJ 3
3rd·12:51
Adam Gaudette faceoff won against Max Domi
·
TOR 1·SJ 3

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

SJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +114/SJ -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE

Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
SHOT MPH94.596
Philippe MyersTOR · D
SHOT MPH99.395
Jake McCabeTOR · D
DIST MI253.292
Morgan RiellyTOR · D
BURSTS7190
Simon BenoitTOR · D
BURSTS7090

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

SJ vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 120 high confidence

Shots on goal

Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
Macklin CelebriniSJ
3.4± 1.1high
William NylanderTOR
2.7± 2.3high

Goals

Macklin CelebriniSJ
0.6± 0.8high
John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high
William NylanderTOR
0.5± 0.7high

Points

Macklin CelebriniSJ
1.4± 1.4high
William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high
John TavaresTOR
1.0± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands