Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at NJ?

The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NJ

TOR

27-24-11

31-29-2

NHLWed, Mar 4FinalSeriesNJ wins series 2-1VegasNJ -125

TOR · top performer

Auston Matthews

C · #34

1Points

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

Timo Meier

RW · #28

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	0	1	-2	0	0	0	0	17:03
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:25
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:18
D. JoshuaC · #81	0	1	1	1	3	1	2	11:19
M. KniesLW · #23	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	15:48
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	8:21
M. MaccelliLW · #63	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:22
A. MatthewsC · #34	0	1	-1	6	1	2	0	24:57
W. NylanderRW · #88	1	0	-1	2	0	0	0	22:51
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	10:33
N. RoyC · #55	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:55
J. TavaresC · #91	0	1	0	4	1	2	0	16:45

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	1	-2	1	1	1	0	17:14
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	1	1	3	2	2	17:23
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	26:28
P. MyersD · #51	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	14:58
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	2	1	0	2	0	22:35
T. StecherD · #28	0	1	-1	2	1	0	0	20:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. StolarzG · #41	47	3	44	.936	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	8:33
J. BrattLW · #63	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	20:31
C. BrownRW · #16	1	0	0	6	0	0	0	17:16
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	7:16
C. GlassC · #12	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	14:36
A. GritsyukRW · #81	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	17:04
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	10:39
N. HischierC · #13	0	2	1	5	1	0	0	24:17
J. HughesC · #86	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	22:44
T. MeierRW · #28	1	0	1	7	0	2	0	19:19
D. MercerC · #91	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	18:49
M. TsyplakovRW · #42	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	0	1	2	3	2	16:21
D. HamiltonD · #7	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	27:15
L. HughesD · #43	0	1	2	4	1	1	0	22:11
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	15:51
S. NemecD · #17	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	18:53
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	20:34

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarkstromG · #25	27	3	24	.889	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NJ wins series 2-1

Oct 21

NJ5@

TOR2

Dec 31

NJ0@

TOR4

Mar 5

TOR3@

NJ4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+10549%

NJ-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NJ beat TOR 4-3. T. Meier led the way — 1 G · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
TOR	1	1	1	0	0	3
NJ	1	1	1	0	1	4

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · NJ won 1

TOR

Play-by-play · 313 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
TOR 0·NJ 2
SO·0:00
End of OT
TOR 0·NJ 2
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
TOR 0·NJ 2
SO·0:00
Auston Matthews Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Markstrom
·
TOR 0·NJ 2
SO·0:00
Jesper Bratt Goal Backhand
TOR 0·NJ 2
SO·0:00
William Nylander Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Markstrom
·
TOR 0·NJ 2
SO·0:00
Paul Cotter Goal Backhand
TOR 0·NJ 2
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
TOR 0·NJ 2
OT·5:00
End of OT
TOR 3·NJ 3
OT·4:59
Connor Brown shot blocked by Auston Matthews
·
TOR 3·NJ 3
OT·4:55
Jack Hughes shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
· ·
TOR 3·NJ 3
OT·4:54
Dougie Hamilton Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 3·NJ 3
OT·4:49
Giveaway by Matias Maccelli
TOR 3·NJ 3
OT·3:14
Paul Cotter Snap Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 3·NJ 3
OT·3:08
Takeaway by Arseny Gritsyuk
TOR 3·NJ 3
OT·2:40
Timo Meier Backhand saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 3·NJ 3
OT·2:16
Giveaway by Jack Hughes
·
TOR 3·NJ 3
OT·2:02
Takeaway by Timo Meier
TOR 3·NJ 3
OT·1:54
Dougie Hamilton hit Jake McCabe
·
TOR 3·NJ 3
OT·1:37
John Tavares Backhand saved by Jacob Markstrom
·
TOR 3·NJ 3
OT·1:23
Jack Hughes Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
· ·
TOR 3·NJ 3
OT·0:44
Auston Matthews Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
TOR 3·NJ 3
OT·0:13
Takeaway by William Nylander
TOR 3·NJ 3
OT·0:07
Auston Matthews Backhand saved by Jacob Markstrom
·
TOR 3·NJ 3
OT·0:00
John Tavares faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
TOR 3·NJ 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
TOR 3·NJ 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 3·NJ 3
3rd·19:57
John Tavares faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
TOR 3·NJ 3
3rd·19:57
Puck in Netting
TOR 3·NJ 3
3rd·19:48
Arseny Gritsyuk Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
TOR 3·NJ 3

Betting line

NJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·TOR +105/NJ -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew Jersey Devils held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 4–3.

TOR +1.5 cashed (NJ won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.5%

ensemble · NJ favored

Elo Static
58.5%
P(NJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.5%
P(NJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.5%
P(NJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at NJ?: The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Toronto Maple LeafsNew Jersey Devils

Elsewhere in the NHL