Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at TOR?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CAR

CAR

44-19-6

TOR

29-28-13

NHLFri, Mar 20FinalSeriesCAR wins series 2-1VegasCAR -218

CAR · top performer

Alexander Nikishin

D · #21

1Points

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

William Nylander

RW · #88

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	18:47
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	17:07
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	9:32
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	0	-1	3	2	0	0	18:00
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	17:39
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	10:40
S. JarvisC · #24	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	17:56
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	16:31
E. RobinsonLW · #50	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	8:25
J. StaalC · #11	1	0	-1	2	4	2	0	18:03
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:32
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	14:36

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	22:07
K. MillerD · #19	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	23:58
A. NikishinD · #21	1	0	0	4	0	0	2	14:23
M. ReillyD · #6	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	9:07
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	23:58
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	-1	5	2	3	2	20:42

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BussiG · #32	26	3	23	.885	60:41

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	12:21
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:36
B. GroulxC · #29	0	1	1	3	2	1	0	15:53
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:46
D. JoshuaC · #81	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	11:25
M. KniesLW · #23	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	20:01
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	1	1	3	2	0	12:18
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	2	1	0	0	2	0	12:59
W. NylanderRW · #88	1	0	-1	4	0	1	0	20:39
J. QuillanC · #26	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	10:12
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	10:39
J. TavaresC · #91	1	0	-1	3	4	0	0	16:12

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	21:28
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	1	1	2	1	4	16:24
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	18:01
J. McCabeD · #22	0	1	2	1	0	1	0	22:55
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	-1	1	0	4	0	18:33
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	21:41

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WollG · #60	36	4	32	.889	60:41

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CAR wins series 2-1

Nov 10

CAR5@

TOR4

Dec 5

TOR5@

CAR1

Mar 20

CAR4@

TOR3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-21869%

TOR+18036%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 16 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat TOR 4-3. A. Nikishin led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
CAR	0	3	0	1	4
TOR	1	1	1	0	3

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · TOR won 2

CAR

TOR

Play-by-play · 302 plays

period

event

player

OT·0:41
Game End
CAR 4·TOR 3
OT·0:41
End of OT
CAR 4·TOR 3
OT·0:41
Alexander Nikishin Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (28), Sebastian Aho (47)
· ·
CAR 4·TOR 3
OT·0:00
Jordan Staal faceoff won against John Tavares
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·19:47
Sebastian Aho Backhand saved by Joseph Woll
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·19:11
John Tavares hit Jalen Chatfield
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·19:11
Steven Lorentz shot blocked by Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·19:11
Giveaway by Jalen Chatfield
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·18:53
John Tavares faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·18:53
Icing
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·18:47
John Tavares faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·18:47
Icing
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·18:30
Simon Benoit hit Taylor Hall
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·18:18
Sean Walker Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·18:12
Jackson Blake Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·17:51
Max Domi Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·17:43
Taylor Hall Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·17:20
Giveaway by Matias Maccelli
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·17:05
Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Matias Maccelli
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·16:14
Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by Jordan Martinook
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·15:14
Oliver Ekman-Larsson Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·15:05
Jackson Blake Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·15:04
Jaccob Slavin Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·14:49
Takeaway by Jacob Quillan
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·14:39
Mark Jankowski hit Troy Stecher
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·14:25
Troy Stecher Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·14:16
William Carrier hit Simon Benoit
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
3rd·13:50
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Max Domi
·
CAR 3·TOR 3

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -218/TOR +180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

TOR +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jackson Blake · CAR17:180.9575.0%81.8%17:18 TOI · 0.95 iXG · 75.0% CF · 81.8% xGF
Logan Stankoven · CAR16:420.4771.8%79.2%16:42 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 71.8% CF · 79.2% xGF
Jordan Staal · CAR18:180.4363.9%63.6%18:18 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 63.9% CF · 63.6% xGF
Seth Jarvis · CAR18:060.4361.1%68.2%18:06 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 61.1% CF · 68.2% xGF
Taylor Hall · CAR17:540.4174.4%82.4%17:54 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 74.4% CF · 82.4% xGF
John Tavares · TOR16:240.3639.3%51.4%16:24 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 39.3% CF · 51.4% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Joseph Woll · PHI32–4.889-0.0932–4 · .889 SV% · -0.09 GSAx
Brandon Bussi · CAR23–3.885-0.7323–3 · .885 SV% · -0.73 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.6%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
44.6%
P(TOR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
44.6%
P(TOR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
44.6%
P(TOR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+180

Close price

+180

Open no-vig

34.3%

Close no-vig

34.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at TOR?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Carolina HurricanesToronto Maple Leafs

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