
CAR
44-19-6

TOR
29-28-13
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
arolina Hurricanes went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.
TOR +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CAR · top performer

Sebastian Aho
C · #20
0
G
2
A
—
SOG
TOR · top performer

Matias Maccelli
LW · #63
0
G
2
A
—
SOG
NHL · Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


CAR
44-19-6
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
TOR
29-28-13
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
4
PIM
10
Season series
CAR wins series 2-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CAR -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
CAR beat TOR 4-3.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| TOR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Period scoring
CAR won 2 · TOR won 2
1
2
3
OT
Play-by-play · 302 plays
- OT·0:41
Game End
CAR 4·TOR 3
- OT·0:41
End of OT
CAR 4·TOR 3
- OT·0:41
Alexander Nikishin Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (28), Sebastian Aho (47)
· ·
CAR 4·TOR 3
- OT·0:00
Jordan Staal faceoff won against John Tavares
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
- OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·19:47
Sebastian Aho Backhand saved by Joseph Woll
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·19:11
John Tavares hit Jalen Chatfield
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·19:11
Steven Lorentz shot blocked by Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·19:11
Giveaway by Jalen Chatfield
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·18:53
John Tavares faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·18:53
Icing
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·18:47
John Tavares faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·18:47
Icing
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·18:30
Simon Benoit hit Taylor Hall
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·18:18
Sean Walker Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·18:12
Jackson Blake Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·17:51
Max Domi Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·17:43
Taylor Hall Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·17:20
Giveaway by Matias Maccelli
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·17:05
Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Matias Maccelli
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·16:14
Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by Jordan Martinook
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·15:14
Oliver Ekman-Larsson Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·15:05
Jackson Blake Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·15:04
Jaccob Slavin Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·14:49
Takeaway by Jacob Quillan
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·14:39
Mark Jankowski hit Troy Stecher
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·14:25
Troy Stecher Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·14:16
William Carrier hit Simon Benoit
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
- 3rd·13:50
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Max Domi
·
CAR 3·TOR 3
Team stats
CAR
Away
Stat
TOR
Home
36
Shots
26
20.0
PCT
0.0
4
PIM
10
25
Faceoffs W
27
11
Blocks
21
10
Giveaways
14
5
Takeaways
5
Betting line
CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -218/TOR +180
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
Sean WalkerCAR · DSKATE MPH22.998
Calle JarnkrokTOR · CSHOT MPH94.596
Taylor HallCAR · LWBURSTS4696
Sebastian AhoCAR · CDIST MI44.795
Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LWBURSTS3995
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+180
Close price
+180
Open no-vig
34.3%
Close no-vig
34.3%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss