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FINAL+1CAR
CAR

CAR

44-19-6

43
TOR

TOR

29-28-13

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, Mar 20FinalSeriesCAR wins series 2-1VegasCAR -218

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

TOR +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CAR · top performer

CAR
Sebastian Aho

Sebastian Aho

C · #20

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

TOR
Matias Maccelli

Matias Maccelli

LW · #63

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
4
3
CAR44-19-6TOR29-28-13
CAR

CAR

44-19-6

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
TOR

TOR

29-28-13

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

10

Season series

CAR wins series 2-1

Nov 10CARCAR5@TORTOR4
Dec 5TORTOR5@CARCAR1
Mar 20CARCAR4@TORTOR3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CARCAR-21869%
TORTOR+18036%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat TOR 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
CAR03014
TOR11103

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · TOR won 2

0
1

1

3
1

2

0
1

3

1
0

OT

CAR
TOR

Play-by-play · 302 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·0:41

    Game End

    CAR 4·TOR 3

  2. OT·0:41

    End of OT

    CAR 4·TOR 3

  3. OT·0:41

    Alexander Nikishin Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (28), Sebastian Aho (47)

    · ·

    CAR 4·TOR 3

  4. OT·0:00

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against John Tavares

    ·

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  5. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  6. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  7. 3rd·19:47

    Sebastian Aho Backhand saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  8. 3rd·19:11

    John Tavares hit Jalen Chatfield

    ·

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  9. 3rd·19:11

    Steven Lorentz shot blocked by Jordan Staal

    ·

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  10. 3rd·19:11

    Giveaway by Jalen Chatfield

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  11. 3rd·18:53

    John Tavares faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  12. 3rd·18:53

    Icing

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  13. 3rd·18:47

    John Tavares faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  14. 3rd·18:47

    Icing

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  15. 3rd·18:30

    Simon Benoit hit Taylor Hall

    ·

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  16. 3rd·18:18

    Sean Walker Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  17. 3rd·18:12

    Jackson Blake Wrist Shot Hit Right Post

    ·

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  18. 3rd·17:51

    Max Domi Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  19. 3rd·17:43

    Taylor Hall Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  20. 3rd·17:20

    Giveaway by Matias Maccelli

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  21. 3rd·17:05

    Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Matias Maccelli

    ·

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  22. 3rd·16:14

    Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by Jordan Martinook

    ·

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  23. 3rd·15:14

    Oliver Ekman-Larsson Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  24. 3rd·15:05

    Jackson Blake Wrist Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  25. 3rd·15:04

    Jaccob Slavin Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  26. 3rd·14:49

    Takeaway by Jacob Quillan

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  27. 3rd·14:39

    Mark Jankowski hit Troy Stecher

    ·

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  28. 3rd·14:25

    Troy Stecher Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  29. 3rd·14:16

    William Carrier hit Simon Benoit

    ·

    CAR 3·TOR 3

  30. 3rd·13:50

    Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Max Domi

    ·

    CAR 3·TOR 3

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

36

Shots

26

20.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

10

25

Faceoffs W

27

11

Blocks

21

10

Giveaways

14

5

Takeaways

5

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -218/TOR +180

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Sean WalkerCAR · D
    SKATE MPH22.998
  • Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
    SHOT MPH94.596
  • Taylor HallCAR · LW
    BURSTS4696
  • Sebastian AhoCAR · C
    DIST MI44.795
  • Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LW
    BURSTS3995

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TOR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+180

Close price

+180

Open no-vig

34.3%

Close no-vig

34.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR