Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in KC at COL?

The model favors KC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 1, 2026

FINAL+6COL

46-66

612

COL

44-67

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

40,216 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 12.0

open O/U 12.5 · -0.5

COL no-vig %

51.7%

open 50.9% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.7%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
46.8%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.5%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.5%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.87

CLV pp

Open price

-106

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

49.1%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in KC at COL?: The model favors KC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

COL vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 102 high confidence

Strikeouts

Noah CameronKC
5.1± 3.3high
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.8± 2.8high
Michael WachaKC
4.7± 2.0high

Hits

Cole CarriggCOL
1.2± 1.3high
Kyle KarrosCOL
1.1± 0.8high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

Mickey MoniakCOL
2.2± 2.6high
Cole CarriggCOL
2.0± 1.6high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.0± 3.3high

RBIs

Luke MaileKC
1.0± 1.6low
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.9± 1.6high
Mickey MoniakCOL
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.9± 1.9high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.3± 2.7medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.1± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

COL

.711

OPS

.720

▶

.748

.313

OBP

.318

▶

.325

4.17

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.86

4.85

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.52

1.43

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.52

7.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

KC 6 · COL 12 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked KC +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	6
COL	0	0	6	1	1	0	1	3	12

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. JensenC	.235	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
L. ThomasCF	.232	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. CaglianoneRF	.251	5	1	1	2	1	0	1
S. PerezDH	.215	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
I. CollinsLF	.242	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
N. Loftin3B	.256	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
M. Massey2B	.263	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. RaveRF	.321	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
T. TolbertSS	.342	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
S. MarteRF	.250	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team		37	6	12	6	3	1	6

Player

.235

.232

.251

.215

.242

.256

.263

.321

.342

.250

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. AvilaSP	2.2	4	6	6	3	2	60
E. McGeeRP	1.1	5	1	1	0	1	36
M. StrahmRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	11
A. LangeRP	2.0	2	1	1	1	3	34
L. ErcegRP	1.0	4	3	3	1	1	31
Team	8.0	16	12	12	5	8	172

Player

2.2

1.1

1.0

2.0

1.0

Team

8.0

172

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.291	5	2	2	0	0	0	1
K. Karros3B	.268	5	2	2	2	0	0	2
T. Rumfield1B	.297	5	2	3	3	0	0	1
H. GoodmanC	.258	5	2	4	5	2	0	0
M. MoniakLF	.278	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. CarriggCF	.292	2	0	0	0	0	3	0
W. Castro2B	.262	4	2	2	1	1	1	2
T. FreemanRF	.251	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. DoyleCF	.214	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
E. TovarSS	.195	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	12	16	12	3	5	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. FeltnerSP	6.0	8	4	4	1	3	87
V. VodnikRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
J. MejiaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	18
J. HergetRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	24
Team	9.0	12	6	6	1	6	144

Team

COL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

COL vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

COL vs KC.

3 sub-models, blended.