NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2TB

TOR

27-22-9

38-14-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Feb 25FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasTB -225

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 4–2.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

Matthew Knies

LW · #23

2Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Gage Goncalves

C · #93

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

TOR27-22-9

TB38-14-4

TOR27-22-9TB38-14-4

TOR

27-22-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

38-14-4

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 9

TB0@

TOR2

Feb 26

TOR2@

TB4today

Mar 8

TB5@

TOR2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+18535%

TB-22569%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat TOR 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	0	2	2
TB	0	2	2	4

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · TB won 1

TOR

Play-by-play · 331 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·19:39
Bobby McMann Snap Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·18:57
Bobby McMann Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·18:55
Matias Maccelli Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·18:52
Nicolas Roy faceoff won against Zemgus Girgensons
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·18:52
Goalie Stopped
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·18:50
William Nylander Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·18:42
Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·18:22
Takeaway by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·18:18
Brayden Point faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·18:18
Icing
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·18:10
John Tavares Tip-In Wide Left
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·17:55
Giveaway by Matthew Knies
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·17:45
Oliver Ekman-Larsson Slap Shot Short
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·17:44
John Tavares shot blocked by J.J. Moser
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·17:44
J.J. Moser hit John Tavares
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·17:13
Brayden Point faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·17:13
Timeout - Visitor
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·17:13
Matthew Knies Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (36), Auston Matthews (23)
· ·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·16:30
Zemgus Girgensons faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 1·TB 4
3rd·16:30
Brayden Point Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (64), Gage Goncalves (13)
· ·
TOR 1·TB 4
3rd·16:19
Brayden Point faceoff won against Nicolas Roy
·
TOR 1·TB 3
3rd·16:19
John Tavares Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (35), Matthew Knies (33)
· ·
TOR 1·TB 3
3rd·16:06
Jake Guentzel Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
TOR 0·TB 3
3rd·15:30
Matthew Knies Backhand saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TOR 0·TB 3
3rd·15:28
Matthew Knies Backhand saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TOR 0·TB 3
3rd·15:27
Matthew Knies Snap Shot Wide Right
·
TOR 0·TB 3
3rd·15:10
Takeaway by Max Domi
TOR 0·TB 3
3rd·14:58
John Tavares faceoff won against Yanni Gourde
·
TOR 0·TB 3

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +185/TB -225

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE

Bobby McMannSEA · C
SKATE MPH24.399
Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
SHOT MPH94.596
Jake McCabeTOR · D
DIST MI253.292
Morgan RiellyTOR · D
BURSTS7190
Simon BenoitTOR · D
BURSTS7090

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-225

Close price

-225

Open no-vig

66.4%

Close no-vig

66.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

TB vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 114 high confidence

Shots on goal

Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high
William NylanderTOR
0.5± 0.7high

Points

William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high
Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands