Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at TB?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2TB

TOR

27-22-9

38-14-4

NHLWed, Feb 25FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasTB -225

TOR · top performer

Matthew Knies

LW · #23

2Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Brayden Point

C · #21

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:31
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:11
M. KniesLW · #23	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	17:48
S. LaughtonC · #24	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	12:02
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	10:18
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	14:15
A. MatthewsC · #34	0	1	1	2	1	3	2	22:54
B. McMannC · #74	0	0	-1	3	3	0	0	14:24
W. NylanderRW · #88	0	2	0	4	0	0	0	19:02
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	-2	1	5	1	0	12:52
N. RoyC · #55	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	15:22
J. TavaresC · #91	1	0	-1	3	0	1	0	17:29

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	-2	1	4	1	4	14:32
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	17:43
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	0	0	3	1	3	2	22:40
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	-2	1	0	3	0	22:00
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	-1	3	2	0	0	20:09
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	16:28

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. StolarzG · #41	36	4	32	.889	55:20

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	12:29
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	17:54
G. GoncalvesC · #93	1	2	4	2	0	0	0	11:51
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	-1	3	4	0	0	19:53
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	22:25
B. HagelLW · #38	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	20:30
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	15:43
D. JamesC · #17	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	10:59
N. KucherovRW · #86	1	2	3	2	0	2	0	23:57
B. PointC · #21	2	1	4	5	0	0	0	22:16
S. SabourinRW · #46	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	5:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	17:04
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	2	2	0	1	0	0	15:09
V. HedmanD · #77	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:51
E. LillebergD · #78	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	9:33
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	-1	0	0	1	2	16:19
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	2	2	1	2	0	18:53
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	23:55

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	34	2	32	.941	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 9

TB0@

TOR2

Feb 26

TOR2@

TB4today

Mar 8

TB5@

TOR2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+18535%

TB-22569%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat TOR 4-2. B. Point led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	0	2	2
TB	0	2	2	4

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · TB won 1

TOR

Play-by-play · 331 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·19:39
Bobby McMann Snap Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·18:57
Bobby McMann Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·18:55
Matias Maccelli Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·18:52
Nicolas Roy faceoff won against Zemgus Girgensons
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·18:52
Goalie Stopped
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·18:50
William Nylander Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·18:42
Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·18:22
Takeaway by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·18:18
Brayden Point faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·18:18
Icing
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·18:10
John Tavares Tip-In Wide Left
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·17:55
Giveaway by Matthew Knies
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·17:45
Oliver Ekman-Larsson Slap Shot Short
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·17:44
John Tavares shot blocked by J.J. Moser
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·17:44
J.J. Moser hit John Tavares
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·17:13
Brayden Point faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·17:13
Timeout - Visitor
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·17:13
Matthew Knies Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (36), Auston Matthews (23)
· ·
TOR 2·TB 4
3rd·16:30
Zemgus Girgensons faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 1·TB 4
3rd·16:30
Brayden Point Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (64), Gage Goncalves (13)
· ·
TOR 1·TB 4
3rd·16:19
Brayden Point faceoff won against Nicolas Roy
·
TOR 1·TB 3
3rd·16:19
John Tavares Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (35), Matthew Knies (33)
· ·
TOR 1·TB 3
3rd·16:06
Jake Guentzel Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
TOR 0·TB 3
3rd·15:30
Matthew Knies Backhand saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TOR 0·TB 3
3rd·15:28
Matthew Knies Backhand saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TOR 0·TB 3
3rd·15:27
Matthew Knies Snap Shot Wide Right
·
TOR 0·TB 3
3rd·15:10
Takeaway by Max Domi
TOR 0·TB 3
3rd·14:58
John Tavares faceoff won against Yanni Gourde
·
TOR 0·TB 3

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +185/TB -225

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 4–2.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

73.9%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
68.7%
P(TB win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
68.7%
P(TB win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
68.7%
P(TB win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-225

Close price

-225

Open no-vig

66.4%

Close no-vig

66.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at TB?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Toronto Maple LeafsTampa Bay Lightning

Elsewhere in the NHL