NHL·Model edges

Where the modeldisagrees with Vegas.

Every game on tonight's slate, ranked by the gap between our win-probability projection and the implied probability of the current moneyline. Larger gap = sharper edge.

Model edges currently ship for NBA + MLB. NHL edges roll out once we have a per-team rating system in production for this league.

See the roadmap →

NHL betting markets

How the NHL market works

NHL markets center on three things: the moneyline (the most-bet ML market in pro sports per dollar of handle), puck line (-1.5 / +1.5), and the regulation-three-way market (home / away / draw after 60 min). Goaltender usage is the single biggest swing factor.

What the NHL model will weight

The factor stack

When NHL model edges ship, this is the factor stack the rating engine will weight. Same shape as the MLB model that's already live — back-tested 55% on 2,932 games, public methodology at /methodology.

  • 01Per-team Elo with adjustment for goaltender starter vs. backup
  • 025v5 expected goals rate per 60 minutes
  • 03Power-play + penalty-kill efficiency
  • 04Schedule density (back-to-backs are common in NHL)
  • 05Home-ice advantage smaller than NBA/MLB (~52% home win rate)

Sharp angles · NHL

What sharps watch for today

Until the model ships, here are the recurring patterns sharp NHL bettors look for. Each is a real angle that's appeared in the post-mortem of multiple winning weeks — not a guarantee, just a starting point for handicapping.

  • ✓Backup-goaltender starts on the road in a back-to-back are the strongest fade spot
  • ✓Regulation three-way market often has positive EV on the draw at +320 to +380
  • ✓Puck-line plus value when betting a heavy home favorite (-180+) at +1.5 underdog
  • ✓Empty-net goals inflate total over hits in the final 90 seconds

What you can use right now

Live surfaces while the NHL model ships

  • ✓ /nhl/scores — today's slate with live updates and Vegas line context
  • ✓ /nhl/odds — every game with spread + total + tip-off in one scan
  • ✓ /best-bets — cross-sport edge leaderboard (live for MLB + NBA today)
  • ✓ /sportsbooks — every state's legal sportsbook list, geo-fenced CTAs to DraftKings + FanDuel + BetMGM + Caesars + ESPN BET
  • ✓ /methodology — full breakdown of how the rating engine works on the leagues we've already shipped