Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at TOR?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3OTT

OTT

29-22-8

TOR

27-24-9

NHLSat, Feb 28FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasOTT -135

OTT · top performer

Dylan Cozens

C · #24

3Points

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

William Nylander

RW · #88

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	17:00
D. BathersonRW · #19	2	0	1	5	1	0	0	17:46
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	0	1	1	0	7	11:50
D. CozensC · #24	2	1	1	4	6	0	2	16:23
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:46
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:15
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	13:43
S. HallidayC · #83	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	12:06
S. PintoC · #12	0	0	0	4	1	0	2	17:34
T. StutzleC · #18	0	1	0	3	4	0	0	18:31
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	1	2	6	6	0	2	15:37
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	1	2	1	2	0	0	10:14

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	1	1	2	3	0	2	0	21:54
N. JensenD · #3	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	16:20
T. KlevenD · #43	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	16:46
J. SandersonD · #85	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	23:12
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	18:40
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	20:23

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	23	2	21	.913	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:34
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	-2	0	3	1	12	11:57
D. JoshuaC · #81	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	12:00
M. KniesLW · #23	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	17:07
S. LaughtonC · #24	0	1	0	1	4	0	5	14:13
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	16:47
A. MatthewsC · #34	0	1	-1	2	1	2	0	17:55
B. McMannC · #74	0	0	-1	3	2	0	0	13:53
W. NylanderRW · #88	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	16:37
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	10:42
N. RoyC · #55	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	16:08
J. TavaresC · #91	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	15:37

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	-2	0	6	1	2	17:51
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	19:50
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	0	-3	1	0	2	0	17:27
J. McCabeD · #22	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	22:46
M. RiellyD · #44	1	0	2	3	0	4	2	21:01
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	-2	0	0	3	0	18:00

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WollG · #60	28	5	23	.821	35:50
A. StolarzG · #41	12	0	12	1.000	23:54

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 28

OTT5@

TOR7

Mar 1

OTT5@

TOR2today

Mar 21

TOR2@

OTT5

Apr 15

TOR1@

OTT3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTT-13557%

TOR+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat TOR 5-2. D. Cozens led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
OTT	1	4	0	5
TOR	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

OTT won 1 · TOR won 0

OTT

TOR

Play-by-play · 315 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·19:58
Jordan Spence Snap Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·19:25
Easton Cowan Backhand saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·19:20
Giveaway by Lars Eller
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·19:00
Max Domi faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·19:00
Puck in Netting
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·18:53
Giveaway by Troy Stecher
·
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·18:52
Giveaway by Jordan Spence
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·18:48
Shane Pinto Snap Shot Wide Left
·
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·18:42
Shane Pinto shot blocked by Troy Stecher
· ·
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·18:18
Shane Pinto Tip-In Hit Right Post
·
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·16:58
Dylan Cozens Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·16:55
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Scott Laughton
·
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·16:55
Goalie Stopped
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·16:53
Brady Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·16:44
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Scott Laughton
·
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·16:44
TV Timeout
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·16:44
Morgan Rielly Slashing against Shane Pinto
·
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·16:40
Morgan Rielly Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·16:33
Nicolas Roy hit Tyler Kleven
·
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·16:25
Brandon Carlo Slap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·16:14
Jake McCabe Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·15:51
Giveaway by Auston Matthews
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·15:44
Giveaway by Ridly Greig
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·15:31
Giveaway by Easton Cowan
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·15:24
Brandon Carlo Slap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·15:02
Fabian Zetterlund hit Matias Maccelli
·
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·13:42
Giveaway by Thomas Chabot
OTT 5·TOR 2
3rd·13:33
Shane Pinto Slap Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
OTT 5·TOR 2

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·OTT -135/TOR +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 5–2.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.9%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
54.9%
P(TOR win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.9%
P(TOR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
54.9%
P(TOR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at TOR?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Ottawa SenatorsToronto Maple Leafs

Elsewhere in the NHL