NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2TOR

ANA

36-26-3

TOR

28-27-11

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesTOR leads series 1-0VegasANA -110

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs held off Anaheim Ducks, 6–4.

TOR +1.5 cashed (ANA lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ANA · top performer

Jeffrey Viel

LW · #28

2Points

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

Matthew Knies

LW · #23

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

ANA36-26-3

TOR28-27-11

ANA36-26-3TOR28-27-11

ANA

36-26-3

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

TOR

28-27-11

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

TOR leads series 1-0

Mar 12

ANA4@

TOR6today

Mar 31

TOR5@

ANA4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANA-11052%

TOR-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat ANA 6-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
ANA	2	1	1	4
TOR	1	2	3	6

Period scoring

ANA won 1 · TOR won 2

ANA

TOR

Play-by-play · 340 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·20:00
Jeffrey Viel Slashing against Joseph Woll
·
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·20:00
Jeffrey Viel Roughing against Jake McCabe
·
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·20:00
Jake McCabe Roughing against Jeffrey Viel
·
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·19:55
Jacob Trouba Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·19:51
Jeffrey Viel shot blocked by Matthew Knies
·
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·19:49
Jacob Trouba Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·19:45
Leo Carlsson Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·19:38
Jeffrey Viel hit Jake McCabe
·
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·19:34
John Tavares faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
·
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·19:34
Timeout - Visitor
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·19:34
Alex Killorn Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeffrey Viel (3), Jacob Trouba (22)
· ·
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·19:31
Philippe Myers hit Jeffrey Viel
·
ANA 3·TOR 6
3rd·19:16
Jeffrey Viel hit Philippe Myers
·
ANA 3·TOR 6
3rd·18:42
Jansen Harkins hit Jacob Quillan
·
ANA 3·TOR 6
3rd·18:41
Michael Pezzetta hit Olen Zellweger
·
ANA 3·TOR 6
3rd·18:20
Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
ANA 3·TOR 6
3rd·18:20
Off-side
ANA 3·TOR 6
3rd·18:12
Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
ANA 3·TOR 6
3rd·18:12
Matthew Knies Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (17), John Tavares (31)
· ·
ANA 3·TOR 6
3rd·18:05
John Tavares faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
ANA 3·TOR 5
3rd·18:05
Icing
ANA 3·TOR 5
3rd·18:00
William Nylander Tip-In Wide Right
ANA 3·TOR 5
3rd·17:58
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against John Tavares
·
ANA 3·TOR 5
3rd·17:58
Goalie Stopped
ANA 3·TOR 5
3rd·17:57
Mikael Granlund Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
ANA 3·TOR 5
3rd·17:55
Beckett Sennecke Wrap-around saved by Joseph Woll
·
ANA 3·TOR 5
3rd·17:55
Giveaway by Matthew Knies
ANA 3·TOR 5
3rd·17:50
Mason McTavish Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
ANA 3·TOR 5

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

42.9

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA -110/TOR -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Ryan PoehlingANA · C
SKATE MPH23.498
Leo CarlssonANA · C
BURSTS4996
Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
SHOT MPH94.596
Philippe MyersTOR · D
SHOT MPH99.395
William NylanderTOR · RW
SKATE MPH23.594

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.