NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2TOR

ANA

36-26-3

TOR

28-27-11

NHLThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesTOR leads series 1-0VegasANA -110

ANA · top performer

Pavel Mintyukov

D · #98

1Points

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

Matthew Knies

LW · #23

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	19:51
C. GauthierLW · #61	1	0	-1	2	1	1	0	19:24
M. GranlundC · #64	0	0	-1	4	0	2	0	20:17
J. HarkinsC · #24	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	6:45
A. KillornLW · #17	1	0	2	3	0	0	0	16:55
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	1	-1	1	1	0	4	18:35
M. McTavishC · #23	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	12:15
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	14:52
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	0	-1	5	0	0	2	20:27
J. VielLW · #28	0	2	2	0	3	0	11	8:32
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:55

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GudasD · #7	0	0	0	1	2	0	15	10:09
D. HellesonD · #14	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:12
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	1	-1	0	2	0	5	25:05
P. MintyukovD · #98	1	0	2	5	0	3	0	21:48
I. MooreD · #3	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	10:18
J. TroubaD · #65	0	1	0	6	1	2	4	23:43
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:50

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	27	5	22	.815	57:12

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	0	0	0	2	1	0	17	15:00
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	-2	2	0	0	14	12:12
B. GroulxC · #29	1	0	1	1	3	1	0	17:41
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	14:06
M. KniesLW · #23	1	3	0	1	3	1	0	22:32
M. MaccelliLW · #63	1	2	0	1	1	1	0	13:51
A. MatthewsC · #34	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:18
W. NylanderRW · #88	1	1	1	3	2	0	0	23:57
M. PezzettaLW · #61	0	0	-1	0	3	0	5	3:43
J. QuillanC · #26	0	0	-2	0	3	0	0	10:04
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	11:15
J. TavaresC · #91	1	1	0	4	1	0	0	21:04

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	-2	0	4	0	0	16:35
B. CarloD · #25	0	1	1	2	3	1	0	20:27
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	0	1	3	2	0	4	21:52
J. McCabeD · #22	0	1	0	3	2	3	2	20:22
P. MyersD · #51	0	0	-2	0	4	2	2	12:33
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	18:01

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WollG · #60	40	4	36	.900	59:27

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

42.9

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

TOR leads series 1-0

Mar 12

ANA4@

TOR6today

Mar 31

TOR5@

ANA4

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANA-11052%

TOR-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 74 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat ANA 6-4. M. Knies led the way — 1 G · 3 A · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
ANA	2	1	1	4
TOR	1	2	3	6

Period scoring

ANA won 1 · TOR won 2

ANA

TOR

Play-by-play · 340 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·20:00
Jeffrey Viel Slashing against Joseph Woll
·
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·20:00
Jeffrey Viel Roughing against Jake McCabe
·
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·20:00
Jake McCabe Roughing against Jeffrey Viel
·
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·19:55
Jacob Trouba Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·19:51
Jeffrey Viel shot blocked by Matthew Knies
·
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·19:49
Jacob Trouba Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·19:45
Leo Carlsson Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·19:38
Jeffrey Viel hit Jake McCabe
·
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·19:34
John Tavares faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
·
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·19:34
Timeout - Visitor
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·19:34
Alex Killorn Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeffrey Viel (3), Jacob Trouba (22)
· ·
ANA 4·TOR 6
3rd·19:31
Philippe Myers hit Jeffrey Viel
·
ANA 3·TOR 6
3rd·19:16
Jeffrey Viel hit Philippe Myers
·
ANA 3·TOR 6
3rd·18:42
Jansen Harkins hit Jacob Quillan
·
ANA 3·TOR 6
3rd·18:41
Michael Pezzetta hit Olen Zellweger
·
ANA 3·TOR 6
3rd·18:20
Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
ANA 3·TOR 6
3rd·18:20
Off-side
ANA 3·TOR 6
3rd·18:12
Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
ANA 3·TOR 6
3rd·18:12
Matthew Knies Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (17), John Tavares (31)
· ·
ANA 3·TOR 6
3rd·18:05
John Tavares faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
ANA 3·TOR 5
3rd·18:05
Icing
ANA 3·TOR 5
3rd·18:00
William Nylander Tip-In Wide Right
ANA 3·TOR 5
3rd·17:58
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against John Tavares
·
ANA 3·TOR 5
3rd·17:58
Goalie Stopped
ANA 3·TOR 5
3rd·17:57
Mikael Granlund Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
ANA 3·TOR 5
3rd·17:55
Beckett Sennecke Wrap-around saved by Joseph Woll
·
ANA 3·TOR 5
3rd·17:55
Giveaway by Matthew Knies
ANA 3·TOR 5
3rd·17:50
Mason McTavish Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
ANA 3·TOR 5

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA -110/TOR -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs held off Anaheim Ducks, 6–4.

TOR +1.5 cashed (ANA lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Beckett Sennecke · ANA20:361.0665.4%72.1%20:36 TOI · 1.06 iXG · 65.4% CF · 72.1% xGF
John Tavares · TOR20:480.9144.4%47.2%20:48 TOI · 0.91 iXG · 44.4% CF · 47.2% xGF
Cutter Gauthier · ANA19:300.6276.5%83.1%19:30 TOI · 0.62 iXG · 76.5% CF · 83.1% xGF
Pavel Mintyukov · ANA22:180.4747.2%46.4%22:18 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 47.2% CF · 46.4% xGF
Leo Carlsson · ANA19:540.4577.8%84.3%19:54 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 77.8% CF · 84.3% xGF
Mikael Granlund · ANA20:360.3946.9%47.0%20:36 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 46.9% CF · 47.0% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Joseph Woll · PHI36–4.900+0.1436–4 · .900 SV% · +0.14 GSAx
Lukas Dostal · ANA22–5.815-2.5422–5 · .815 SV% · -2.54 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.1%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
49.1%
P(TOR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
49.1%
P(TOR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
49.1%
P(TOR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

Anaheim DucksToronto Maple Leafs

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