Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 1, 2026

FINAL+5PHI

PHI

58-53

BAL

54-57

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

37,751 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

BAL no-vig %

43.9%

open 44.1% · -0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.0%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
43.7%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.2%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.8%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.3pp

best edge · PHI · DraftKings

PHI

★ best

-156DraftKings

edge +3.3pp · implied 57.3%

BAL

no live price

Book	PHI	BAL	Best edge
DraftKings	-156★	+120	+3.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BAL vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 104 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.7medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Cristopher SanchezPHI
6.3± 3.1high

Hits

Luis ArraezPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Jackson HollidayBAL
1.1± 1.3high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
2.1± 3.5low
Bryce HarperPHI
2.0± 1.6high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.1± 1.9low
Bryan De La CruzPHI
0.7± 1.4low
Bryce HarperPHI
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.1± 1.7high
Cade PovichBAL
2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

BAL

.706

OPS

.720

.710

.305

OBP

.318

▶

.319

4.39

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.51

4.17

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.23

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.35

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 5 · BAL 0 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	5
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.249	5	0	2	0	0	0	0
K. SchwarberDH	.248	4	1	0	0	0	1	3
B. Harper1B	.254	4	1	2	0	0	1	0
A. Bohm3B	.223	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
B. MarshLF	.279	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
J.T. RealmutoC	.223	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. Stott2B	.253	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. CrawfordCF	.257	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
B. De La CruzRF	.444	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
D. HillCF	.273	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	5	10	5	0	4	7

Player

.249

.248

.254

.223

.279

.223

.253

.257

.444

.273

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SanchezSP	6.0	2	0	0	5	11	99
J. BowlanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	22
J. AlvaradoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15
J. DuranRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
Team	9.0	3	0	0	5	14	149

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

149

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Mayo3B	.199	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. WardLF	.245	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
G. HendersonSS	.220	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
P. Alonso1B	.249	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. O'NeillRF	.209	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. Encarnacion-Strand3B	.306	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
L. TaverasCF	.220	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Holliday2B	.255	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. RogersC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. BeaversRF	.247	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		30	0	3	0	0	5	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BazSP	6.1	6	1	1	1	4	99
R. GarciaRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	4
G. WolframRP	0.1	0	2	2	2	0	15
A. KittredgeRP	0.1	3	2	2	1	0	20
Y. HiraldoRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	3	23
Team	9.0	10	5	5	4	7	161

Team

PHI

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

BAL vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.