Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at TOR?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4WSH

WSH

40-30-9

TOR

32-32-14

NHLWed, Apr 8FinalSeriesWSH wins series 3-0VegasWSH -155

WSH · top performer

Ryan Leonard

RW · #9

1Points

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

John Tavares

C · #91

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	17:14
P. DuboisLW · #80	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:05
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	10:06
R. LeonardRW · #9	1	0	1	4	5	0	4	13:22
C. McMichaelC · #24	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	16:46
I. MiroshnichenkoLW · #63	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	9:19
A. OvechkinLW · #8	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:36
A. ProtasC · #21	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	17:38
I. ProtasLW · #62	0	1	1	0	0	1	2	15:37
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	12:54
D. StromeC · #17	1	1	2	1	0	1	0	16:34
T. WilsonRW · #43	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	18:51

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChychrunD · #6	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	20:53
M. FehervaryD · #42	1	1	3	2	0	2	0	18:16
C. HutsonD · #44	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	18:05
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	2	0	1	2	0	19:13
R. SandinD · #38	0	0	2	0	1	4	0	20:01
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	19:25

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThompsonG · #48	22	0	22	1.000	59:22

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	20:44
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	0	2	0	2	4	17:35
B. GroulxC · #29	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	13:58
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	-3	0	1	1	0	12:38
D. JoshuaC · #81	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	8:30
M. KniesLW · #23	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	17:56
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	12:05
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:47
W. NylanderRW · #88	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	20:32
J. QuillanC · #26	0	0	-2	1	4	0	0	9:01
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	14:16
J. TavaresC · #91	0	0	-1	3	0	2	0	19:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	19:44
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	-2	1	0	2	0	12:07
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	20:40
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	22:08
P. MyersD · #51	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	17:58
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	21:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WollG · #60	17	3	14	.824	57:05
A. StolarzG · #41	2	0	2	1.000	2:34

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

WSH wins series 3-0

Nov 28

TOR2@

WSH4

Dec 19

TOR0@

WSH4

Apr 8

WSH4@

TOR0today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH-15561%

TOR+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 82 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat TOR 4-0. R. Leonard led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WSH	1	2	1	4
TOR	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

WSH won 3 · TOR won 0

WSH

TOR

Play-by-play · 297 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WSH 4·TOR 0
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WSH 4·TOR 0
3rd·19:59
Easton Cowan Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
WSH 4·TOR 0
3rd·19:00
Takeaway by Nicholas Robertson
WSH 4·TOR 0
3rd·18:52
Takeaway by Anthony Beauvillier
WSH 4·TOR 0
3rd·18:37
Calle Jarnkrok Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
WSH 4·TOR 0
3rd·18:32
Max Domi faceoff won against Anthony Beauvillier
·
WSH 4·TOR 0
3rd·18:32
Goalie Stopped
WSH 4·TOR 0
3rd·18:30
Max Domi Tip-In saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 4·TOR 0
3rd·18:19
Nicholas Robertson Tip-In Wide Right
·
WSH 4·TOR 0
3rd·18:17
Max Domi faceoff won against Connor McMichael
·
WSH 4·TOR 0
3rd·18:17
Ryan Leonard Holding against Jacob Quillan
·
WSH 4·TOR 0
3rd·16:46
Morgan Rielly Wrist Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 4·TOR 0
3rd·16:10
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Bo Groulx
·
WSH 4·TOR 0
3rd·16:10
Cole Hutson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (26), Ilya Protas (1)
· ·
WSH 4·TOR 0
3rd·15:59
Takeaway by Rasmus Sandin
WSH 3·TOR 0
3rd·15:35
Giveaway by William Nylander
WSH 3·TOR 0
3rd·14:06
Giveaway by Easton Cowan
WSH 3·TOR 0
3rd·14:00
Philippe Myers shot blocked by Easton Cowan
·
WSH 3·TOR 0
3rd·13:50
Pierre-Luc Dubois hit Simon Benoit
·
WSH 3·TOR 0
3rd·13:42
Takeaway by Connor McMichael
WSH 3·TOR 0
3rd·13:31
Martin Fehervary shot blocked by John Tavares
·
WSH 3·TOR 0
3rd·13:11
Ivan Miroshnichenko hit Calle Jarnkrok
·
WSH 3·TOR 0
3rd·13:11
Giveaway by Calle Jarnkrok
WSH 3·TOR 0
3rd·13:09
Brandon Duhaime hit Jacob Quillan
·
WSH 3·TOR 0
3rd·13:06
Giveaway by Justin Sourdif
WSH 3·TOR 0
3rd·12:25
Simon Benoit Slap Shot Wide Left
·
WSH 3·TOR 0
3rd·12:18
Jacob Quillan hit Cole Hutson
·
WSH 3·TOR 0
3rd·12:12
Calle Jarnkrok hit Rasmus Sandin
·
WSH 3·TOR 0
3rd·12:03
Ilya Protas faceoff won against Calle Jarnkrok
· ·
WSH 3·TOR 0

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH -155/TOR +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 4–0.

WSH -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Dylan Strome · WSH16:360.5750.0%51.6%16:36 TOI · 0.57 iXG · 50.0% CF · 51.6% xGF
Steven Lorentz · TOR12:300.4757.9%51.7%12:30 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 57.9% CF · 51.7% xGF
Dakota Joshua · TOR8:360.3861.1%65.3%8:36 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 61.1% CF · 65.3% xGF
Alex Ovechkin · WSH16:480.3552.8%54.7%16:48 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 52.8% CF · 54.7% xGF
Aliaksei Protas · WSH17:480.3551.7%57.4%17:48 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 51.7% CF · 57.4% xGF
John Tavares · TOR19:360.3471.1%59.9%19:36 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 71.1% CF · 59.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Logan Thompson · WSH22–01.000+2.1722–0 · 1.000 SV% · +2.17 GSAx
Anthony Stolarz · TOR2–01.000+0.082–0 · 1.000 SV% · +0.08 GSAx
Joseph Woll · PHI14–3.824-1.4314–3 · .824 SV% · -1.43 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
51.2%
P(TOR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.2%
P(TOR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.2%
P(TOR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at TOR?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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