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FINAL+1PHI
PHI

PHI

28-21-11

32
TOR

TOR

27-24-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Mar 2FinalSeriesTOR wins series 2-1VegasTOR -135

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 3–2.

PHI +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Noah Cates

Noah Cates

LW · #27

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

TOR
Dakota Joshua

Dakota Joshua

C · #81

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
3
2
PHI28-21-11TOR27-24-10
PHI

PHI

28-21-11

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
TOR

TOR

27-24-10

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

6

Season series

TOR wins series 2-1

Nov 1TORTOR5@PHIPHI2
Jan 9TORTOR2@PHIPHI1
Mar 3PHIPHI3@TORTOR2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI+11447%
TORTOR-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat TOR 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
PHI101013
TOR101002

Period scoring

PHI won 1 · TOR won 0

1
1

1

0
0

2

1
1

3

0
0

OT

1
0

SO

PHI
TOR

Play-by-play · 318 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    PHI 2·TOR 1

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    PHI 2·TOR 1

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    PHI 2·TOR 1

  4. SO·0:00

    Max Domi Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    PHI 2·TOR 1

  5. SO·0:00

    Trevor Zegras Goal Wrist Shot

    PHI 2·TOR 1

  6. SO·0:00

    Auston Matthews Backhand saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    PHI 2·TOR 1

  7. SO·0:00

    Matvei Michkov Goal Backhand

    PHI 2·TOR 1

  8. SO·0:00

    William Nylander Goal Wrist Shot

    PHI 2·TOR 1

  9. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    PHI 2·TOR 1

  10. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    PHI 2·TOR 2

  11. OT·4:57

    Takeaway by Christian Dvorak

    PHI 2·TOR 2

  12. OT·4:57

    Trevor Zegras shot blocked by Max Domi

    ·

    PHI 2·TOR 2

  13. OT·4:30

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against John Tavares

    ·

    PHI 2·TOR 2

  14. OT·4:30

    Puck in Netting

    PHI 2·TOR 2

  15. OT·4:27

    Jamie Drysdale Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz

    ·

    PHI 2·TOR 2

  16. OT·4:18

    Auston Matthews Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    PHI 2·TOR 2

  17. OT·4:00

    Giveaway by Matvei Michkov

    PHI 2·TOR 2

  18. OT·3:15

    Travis Sanheim Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz

    ·

    PHI 2·TOR 2

  19. OT·2:56

    Sean Couturier faceoff won against John Tavares

    ·

    PHI 2·TOR 2

  20. OT·2:56

    Timeout - Home

    PHI 2·TOR 2

  21. OT·2:56

    Goalie Stopped

    PHI 2·TOR 2

  22. OT·2:53

    Auston Matthews Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    PHI 2·TOR 2

  23. OT·2:36

    William Nylander Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PHI 2·TOR 2

  24. OT·2:14

    Matthew Knies hit Jamie Drysdale

    ·

    PHI 2·TOR 2

  25. OT·2:12

    Takeaway by Jamie Drysdale

    PHI 2·TOR 2

  26. OT·0:37

    Auston Matthews Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    PHI 2·TOR 2

  27. OT·0:35

    Auston Matthews Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    PHI 2·TOR 2

  28. OT·0:00

    John Tavares faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 2·TOR 2

  29. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    PHI 2·TOR 2

  30. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PHI 2·TOR 2

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

25

Shots

31

33.3

PCT

33.3

6

PIM

6

22

Faceoffs W

32

14

Blocks

16

17

Giveaways

13

8

Takeaways

4

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 6.5·PHI +114/TOR -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795
  • Philippe MyersTOR · D
    SHOT MPH99.395
  • Cam YorkPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.693
  • Christian DvorakPHI · C
    BURSTS3492

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TOR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR