Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at TOR?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1PHI

PHI

28-21-11

TOR

27-24-10

NHLMon, Mar 2FinalSeriesTOR wins series 2-1VegasTOR -135

PHI · top performer

Noah Cates

LW · #27

2Points

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

Auston Matthews

C · #34

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	1	-1	1	0	1	2	9:17
B. BrinkRW · #10	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	20:47
N. CatesLW · #27	1	1	1	1	0	2	0	19:56
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	16:49
N. DeslauriersLW · #44	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	7:34
C. DvorakC · #22	1	0	0	3	1	2	0	23:34
N. GrebenkinRW · #29	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	8:44
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	8:31
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	9:42
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	18:30
O. TippettRW · #74	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	21:51
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	21:43

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	12:12
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	24:30
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	1	5	2	2	2	27:14
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	29:11
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	6:01
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	23:01

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	31	2	29	.935	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	8:23
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	14:36
D. JoshuaC · #81	1	0	1	1	3	1	0	11:21
M. KniesLW · #23	0	1	0	1	5	0	0	18:18
S. LaughtonC · #24	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:51
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:05
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	11:13
A. MatthewsC · #34	0	0	-1	8	3	3	0	26:06
B. McMannC · #74	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	17:42
W. NylanderRW · #88	1	0	-1	4	0	0	0	25:39
N. RoyC · #55	0	0	1	0	0	3	2	13:36
J. TavaresC · #91	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	19:15

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	17:51
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	-1	1	4	0	2	17:29
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	24:00
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	24:24
P. MyersD · #51	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	12:26
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	23:54

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. StolarzG · #41	25	2	23	.920	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

TOR wins series 2-1

Nov 1

TOR5@

PHI2

Jan 9

TOR2@

PHI1

Mar 3

PHI3@

TOR2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+11447%

TOR-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat TOR 3-2. N. Cates led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
PHI	1	0	1	0	1	3
TOR	1	0	1	0	0	2

Period scoring

PHI won 1 · TOR won 0

PHI

TOR

Play-by-play · 318 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
PHI 2·TOR 1
SO·0:00
End of OT
PHI 2·TOR 1
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
PHI 2·TOR 1
SO·0:00
Max Domi Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 2·TOR 1
SO·0:00
Trevor Zegras Goal Wrist Shot
PHI 2·TOR 1
SO·0:00
Auston Matthews Backhand saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 2·TOR 1
SO·0:00
Matvei Michkov Goal Backhand
PHI 2·TOR 1
SO·0:00
William Nylander Goal Wrist Shot
PHI 2·TOR 1
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
PHI 2·TOR 1
OT·5:00
End of OT
PHI 2·TOR 2
OT·4:57
Takeaway by Christian Dvorak
PHI 2·TOR 2
OT·4:57
Trevor Zegras shot blocked by Max Domi
·
PHI 2·TOR 2
OT·4:30
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against John Tavares
·
PHI 2·TOR 2
OT·4:30
Puck in Netting
PHI 2·TOR 2
OT·4:27
Jamie Drysdale Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
PHI 2·TOR 2
OT·4:18
Auston Matthews Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 2·TOR 2
OT·4:00
Giveaway by Matvei Michkov
PHI 2·TOR 2
OT·3:15
Travis Sanheim Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
PHI 2·TOR 2
OT·2:56
Sean Couturier faceoff won against John Tavares
·
PHI 2·TOR 2
OT·2:56
Timeout - Home
PHI 2·TOR 2
OT·2:56
Goalie Stopped
PHI 2·TOR 2
OT·2:53
Auston Matthews Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 2·TOR 2
OT·2:36
William Nylander Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
PHI 2·TOR 2
OT·2:14
Matthew Knies hit Jamie Drysdale
·
PHI 2·TOR 2
OT·2:12
Takeaway by Jamie Drysdale
PHI 2·TOR 2
OT·0:37
Auston Matthews Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 2·TOR 2
OT·0:35
Auston Matthews Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 2·TOR 2
OT·0:00
John Tavares faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 2·TOR 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
PHI 2·TOR 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PHI 2·TOR 2

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 6.5·PHI +114/TOR -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 3–2.

PHI +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.5%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
57.5%
P(TOR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.5%
P(TOR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.5%
P(TOR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at TOR?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Philadelphia FlyersToronto Maple Leafs

Elsewhere in the NHL