Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at MIN?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2TOR

TOR

29-27-12

MIN

38-18-12

NHLSun, Mar 15FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMIN -265

TOR · top performer

Bo Groulx

C · #29

2Points

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

Vladimir Tarasenko

RW · #91

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	16:39
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:26
B. GroulxC · #29	2	0	2	2	1	0	0	17:03
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	10:22
D. JoshuaC · #81	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	11:51
M. KniesLW · #23	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	20:47
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:54
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	14:19
W. NylanderRW · #88	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	17:42
J. QuillanC · #26	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	8:21
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	1	0	2	0	0	2	13:41
J. TavaresC · #91	0	1	0	3	0	1	0	19:49

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	14:46
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	1	1	0	4	2	25:07
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	2	1	2	9	2	26:49
P. MyersD · #51	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	17:28
M. RiellyD · #44	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	17:38
T. StecherD · #28	0	1	0	3	1	4	0	17:13

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. StolarzG · #41	38	2	36	.947	58:05

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	0	0	-2	4	0	1	0	19:28
J. Eriksson EkC · #14	0	0	-2	4	1	0	0	18:47
N. FolignoLW · #71	0	0	-1	1	5	0	0	11:10
R. HartmanRW · #38	0	2	2	4	0	0	0	16:52
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	13:13
K. KaprizovLW · #97	0	0	-1	2	1	1	2	22:41
M. McCarronC · #47	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	9:20
N. SturmC · #78	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	7:49
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	2	0	0	4	3	0	0	16:55
Y. TreninC · #13	0	0	-1	3	3	0	2	12:24
D. YurovRW · #22	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	12:48
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	0	2	1	5	0	0	2	21:35

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodinD · #25	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	19:18
B. FaberD · #7	0	0	-1	2	1	3	0	23:30
Q. HughesD · #43	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	31:17
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	12:11
J. PetryD · #2	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:14
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	0	-1	0	0	4	0	18:02

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WallstedtG · #30	25	3	22	.880	58:26

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 20

MIN6@

TOR3

Mar 15

TOR4@

MIN2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+21532%

MIN-26573%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 33 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat MIN 4-2. B. Groulx led the way — 2 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	3	1	4
MIN	0	0	2	2

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · MIN won 1

TOR

MIN

Play-by-play · 337 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:48
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:48
Icing
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:41
John Tavares faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:41
Puck in Netting
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:40
Kirill Kaprizov shot blocked by John Tavares
·
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:34
John Tavares faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:34
Puck in Netting
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:32
Mats Zuccarello shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
·
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:23
John Tavares faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:23
Timeout - Home
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:23
Matthew Knies Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:17
Quinn Hughes shot blocked by Matthew Knies
·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·18:34
Brock Faber shot blocked by Jake McCabe
·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·18:14
Joel Eriksson Ek Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·18:05
Joel Eriksson Ek hit Matthew Knies
·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·17:40
Giveaway by Troy Stecher
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·17:26
Giveaway by John Tavares
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·17:19
Giveaway by Ryan Hartman
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·16:50
Joel Eriksson Ek shot blocked by Jared Spurgeon
·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·16:37
Joel Eriksson Ek Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·16:35
Matt Boldy Tip-In saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·16:35
Giveaway by Jake McCabe
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·16:31
Kirill Kaprizov shot blocked by Jake McCabe
·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·16:28
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Benoit-Olivier Groulx
· ·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·16:28
Puck Frozen - Goalie
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·16:25
Ryan Hartman Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·16:16
Calle Jarnkrok Backhand saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·15:57
John Tavares faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
TOR 3·MIN 2

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +215/MIN -265

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs went into Minnesota Wild and beat them, 4–2.

TOR +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Mats Zuccarello · MIN21:360.7181.1%86.8%21:36 TOI · 0.71 iXG · 81.1% CF · 86.8% xGF
John Tavares · TOR20:000.5646.0%53.9%20:00 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 46.0% CF · 53.9% xGF
Ryan Hartman · MIN16:480.4478.9%85.9%16:48 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 78.9% CF · 85.9% xGF
Vladimir Tarasenko · MIN17:060.4478.0%83.7%17:06 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 78.0% CF · 83.7% xGF
Matt Boldy · MIN19:360.4069.6%60.5%19:36 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 69.6% CF · 60.5% xGF
Yakov Trenin · MIN12:300.3961.5%58.7%12:30 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 61.5% CF · 58.7% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Anthony Stolarz · TOR36–2.947+1.4636–2 · .947 SV% · +1.46 GSAx
Jesper Wallstedt · MIN22–3.880-1.1822–3 · .880 SV% · -1.18 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.1%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
67.1%
P(MIN win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
67.1%
P(MIN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
67.1%
P(MIN win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+215

Close price

+215

Open no-vig

30.4%

Close no-vig

30.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at MIN?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Toronto Maple LeafsMinnesota Wild

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