NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2TOR

TOR

29-27-12

MIN

38-18-12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Mar 15FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMIN -265

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs went into Minnesota Wild and beat them, 4–2.

TOR +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

Bo Groulx

C · #29

2Points

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

Ryan Hartman

RW · #38

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

TOR29-27-12

MIN38-18-12

TOR29-27-12MIN38-18-12

TOR

29-27-12

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

MIN

38-18-12

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 20

MIN6@

TOR3

Mar 15

TOR4@

MIN2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+21532%

MIN-26573%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat MIN 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	3	1	4
MIN	0	0	2	2

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · MIN won 1

TOR

MIN

Play-by-play · 337 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:48
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:48
Icing
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:41
John Tavares faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:41
Puck in Netting
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:40
Kirill Kaprizov shot blocked by John Tavares
·
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:34
John Tavares faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:34
Puck in Netting
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:32
Mats Zuccarello shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
·
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:23
John Tavares faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:23
Timeout - Home
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:23
Matthew Knies Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none
TOR 4·MIN 2
3rd·19:17
Quinn Hughes shot blocked by Matthew Knies
·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·18:34
Brock Faber shot blocked by Jake McCabe
·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·18:14
Joel Eriksson Ek Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·18:05
Joel Eriksson Ek hit Matthew Knies
·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·17:40
Giveaway by Troy Stecher
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·17:26
Giveaway by John Tavares
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·17:19
Giveaway by Ryan Hartman
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·16:50
Joel Eriksson Ek shot blocked by Jared Spurgeon
·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·16:37
Joel Eriksson Ek Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·16:35
Matt Boldy Tip-In saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·16:35
Giveaway by Jake McCabe
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·16:31
Kirill Kaprizov shot blocked by Jake McCabe
·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·16:28
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Benoit-Olivier Groulx
· ·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·16:28
Puck Frozen - Goalie
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·16:25
Ryan Hartman Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz
·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·16:16
Calle Jarnkrok Backhand saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
TOR 3·MIN 2
3rd·15:57
John Tavares faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
TOR 3·MIN 2

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +215/MIN -265

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Brock FaberMIN · D
BURSTS2799+
Matt BoldyMIN · LW
SHOT MPH92.897
Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
SHOT MPH94.596
Marcus JohanssonMIN · LW
SKATE MPH23.296
Quinn HughesMIN · D
BURSTS1895

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+215

Close price

+215

Open no-vig

30.4%

Close no-vig

30.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

MIN vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 114 high confidence

Shots on goal

Matt BoldyMIN
3.8± 1.9high
Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
Joel Eriksson EkMIN
3.3± 1.6high

Goals

Matt BoldyMIN
0.5± 0.7high
John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high
William NylanderTOR
0.5± 0.7high

Points

Quinn HughesMIN
1.3± 1.1high
Kirill KaprizovMIN
1.2± 1.1high
William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands