NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4FLA

TOR

27-23-9

FLA

30-25-3

NHLThu, Feb 26FinalSeriesTOR leads series 2-1VegasFLA -162

TOR · top performer

John Tavares

C · #91

1Points

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

Evan Rodrigues

C · #17

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	-2	1	2	0	0	13:54
D. JoshuaC · #81	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	11:01
M. KniesLW · #23	0	0	-4	4	1	0	0	17:17
S. LaughtonC · #24	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	14:25
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	13:45
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	0	-1	3	0	0	2	15:09
A. MatthewsC · #34	0	1	-4	2	1	1	0	18:34
B. McMannC · #74	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	14:05
W. NylanderRW · #88	0	0	-3	1	0	1	0	18:11
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:01
N. RoyC · #55	0	0	0	2	2	3	2	15:01
J. TavaresC · #91	1	0	-3	3	0	0	0	18:38

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	0	1	3	1	2	14:18
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:53
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	1	-3	1	0	3	0	20:56
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	-1	3	2	0	2	20:44
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	19:11
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	21:14

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WollG · #60	35	3	32	.914	59:07

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	18:41
A.J. GreerLW · #10	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	12:05
A. LundellC · #15	0	2	2	1	2	1	0	16:18
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	0	2	3	1	2	0	16:04
B. MarchandLW · #63	2	0	2	3	0	0	0	14:10
S. ReinhartC · #13	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	18:01
E. RodriguesC · #17	1	1	1	9	1	0	0	16:52
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	14:12
C. SchwindtRW · #79	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	7:23
M. TkachukLW · #19	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	18:26
C. VerhaegheC · #23	1	0	0	3	0	1	0	14:03
S. VilmanisLW · #95	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	11:13

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. BalinskisD · #26	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	20:13
A. EkbladD · #5	0	0	1	1	2	0	6	19:06
G. ForslingD · #42	0	0	3	2	1	2	0	22:56
N. MikkolaD · #77	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	21:06
J. PetryD · #2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	17:48
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:25

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BobrovskyG · #72	30	1	29	.967	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

TOR leads series 2-1

Dec 3

TOR4@

FLA1

Jan 7

FLA1@

TOR4

Feb 27

TOR1@

FLA5today

Apr 11

FLA6@

TOR2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+13642%

FLA-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat TOR 5-1. E. Rodrigues led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 9 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	0	1	1
FLA	3	0	2	5

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · FLA won 2

TOR

FLA

Play-by-play · 301 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 1·FLA 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 1·FLA 5
3rd·18:48
Donovan Sebrango Snap Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 1·FLA 5
3rd·18:42
Eetu Luostarinen Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 1·FLA 5
3rd·18:34
A.J. Greer Backhand saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 1·FLA 5
3rd·18:22
Steven Lorentz Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
TOR 1·FLA 5
3rd·18:08
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Eetu Luostarinen
·
TOR 1·FLA 5
3rd·18:08
Matthew Tkachuk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (24), Sam Reinhart (29)
· ·
TOR 1·FLA 5
3rd·17:47
John Tavares faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
TOR 1·FLA 4
3rd·17:47
Goalie Stopped
TOR 1·FLA 4
3rd·17:45
Bobby McMann Snap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
TOR 1·FLA 4
3rd·17:44
Giveaway by Jeff Petry
TOR 1·FLA 4
3rd·17:20
Mackie Samoskevich Wide Left
·
TOR 1·FLA 4
3rd·16:51
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
TOR 1·FLA 4
3rd·16:51
Brad Marchand Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: none
TOR 1·FLA 4
3rd·16:48
Giveaway by Max Domi
TOR 1·FLA 3
3rd·16:40
Giveaway by Aaron Ekblad
TOR 1·FLA 3
3rd·16:30
Brad Marchand Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
TOR 1·FLA 3
3rd·16:20
Matthew Knies Snap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
TOR 1·FLA 3
3rd·16:05
Anton Lundell faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 1·FLA 3
3rd·16:05
Off-side
TOR 1·FLA 3
3rd·15:47
Auston Matthews faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
TOR 1·FLA 3
3rd·15:47
Goalie Stopped
TOR 1·FLA 3
3rd·15:45
Anton Lundell Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
TOR 1·FLA 3
3rd·15:28
Aaron Ekblad shot blocked by Steven Lorentz
·
TOR 1·FLA 3
3rd·15:23
Eetu Luostarinen Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 1·FLA 3
3rd·14:53
Troy Stecher shot blocked by Jeff Petry
· ·
TOR 1·FLA 3
3rd·14:49
Giveaway by Sam Bennett
TOR 1·FLA 3
3rd·14:41
Bobby McMann hit Jeff Petry
·
TOR 1·FLA 3
3rd·13:48
Takeaway by Jake McCabe
TOR 1·FLA 3

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +136/FLA -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 5–1.

FLA -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.5%

ensemble · FLA favored

Elo Static
58.5%
P(FLA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.5%
P(FLA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.5%
P(FLA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

Toronto Maple LeafsFlorida Panthers

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