Mar 20, 26sim 98
264
6(H)0
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+4FLA
TOR
27-23-9
15
FLA
30-25-3
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
lorida Panthers held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 5–1.
FLA -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
TOR · top performer
Auston Matthews
C · #34
1Points
0
G
1
A
—
SOG
FLA · top performer
Anton Lundell
C · #15
2Points
0
G
2
A
—
SOG
NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final
TOR27-23-9
15
FLA30-25-3
TOR27-23-9FLA30-25-3
TOR
27-23-9
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
FLA
30-25-3
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
8
PIM
8
Season series
TOR leads series 2-1
Dec 3TOR4@FLA1
TOR4@FLA1Jan 7FLA1@TOR4
FLA1@TOR4Feb 27TOR1@FLA5today
TOR1@FLA5todayApr 11FLA6@TOR2
FLA6@TOR2Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
FLA -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
TOR+13642%FLA-16262%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
FLA beat TOR 5-1.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| FLA | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
Period scoring
TOR won 0 · FLA won 2
0
3
1
0
0
2
1
2
3
TOR
FLA
Play-by-play · 301 plays
period
event
player
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 1·FLA 5
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 1·FLA 5
- 3rd·18:48
Donovan Sebrango Snap Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 1·FLA 5
- 3rd·18:42
Eetu Luostarinen Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 1·FLA 5
- 3rd·18:34
A.J. Greer Backhand saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 1·FLA 5
- 3rd·18:22
Steven Lorentz Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
TOR 1·FLA 5
- 3rd·18:08
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Eetu Luostarinen
·
TOR 1·FLA 5
- 3rd·18:08
Matthew Tkachuk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (24), Sam Reinhart (29)
· ·
TOR 1·FLA 5
- 3rd·17:47
John Tavares faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
TOR 1·FLA 4
- 3rd·17:47
Goalie Stopped
TOR 1·FLA 4
- 3rd·17:45
Bobby McMann Snap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
TOR 1·FLA 4
- 3rd·17:44
Giveaway by Jeff Petry
TOR 1·FLA 4
- 3rd·17:20
Mackie Samoskevich Wide Left
·
TOR 1·FLA 4
- 3rd·16:51
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
TOR 1·FLA 4
- 3rd·16:51
Brad Marchand Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: none
TOR 1·FLA 4
- 3rd·16:48
Giveaway by Max Domi
TOR 1·FLA 3
- 3rd·16:40
Giveaway by Aaron Ekblad
TOR 1·FLA 3
- 3rd·16:30
Brad Marchand Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
TOR 1·FLA 3
- 3rd·16:20
Matthew Knies Snap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
TOR 1·FLA 3
- 3rd·16:05
Anton Lundell faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 1·FLA 3
- 3rd·16:05
Off-side
TOR 1·FLA 3
- 3rd·15:47
Auston Matthews faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
TOR 1·FLA 3
- 3rd·15:47
Goalie Stopped
TOR 1·FLA 3
- 3rd·15:45
Anton Lundell Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
TOR 1·FLA 3
- 3rd·15:28
Aaron Ekblad shot blocked by Steven Lorentz
·
TOR 1·FLA 3
- 3rd·15:23
Eetu Luostarinen Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 1·FLA 3
- 3rd·14:53
Troy Stecher shot blocked by Jeff Petry
· ·
TOR 1·FLA 3
- 3rd·14:49
Giveaway by Sam Bennett
TOR 1·FLA 3
- 3rd·14:41
Bobby McMann hit Jeff Petry
·
TOR 1·FLA 3
- 3rd·13:48
Takeaway by Jake McCabe
TOR 1·FLA 3
Team stats
TOR
Away
Stat
FLA
Home
30
Shots
37
33.3
PCT
33.3
8
PIM
8
23
Faceoffs W
29
12
Blocks
10
15
Giveaways
14
4
Takeaways
3
Betting line
FLA -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +136/FLA -162
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
Bobby McMannSEA · CSKATE MPH24.399
Gustav ForslingFLA · DSHOT MPH100.497
Uvis BalinskisFLA · DSKATE MPH23.195
Sam BennettFLA · CDIST MI239.693
Mackie SamoskevichFLA · RWBURSTS18693
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · FLA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
FLA vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
129
projections · 114 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Auston MatthewsTOR3.6± 2.5high
- Sam BennettFLA2.7± 2.1high
- Sam ReinhartFLA2.7± 1.9high
Goals
- John TavaresTOR0.5± 0.7high
- William NylanderTOR0.5± 0.7high
- Carter VerhaegheFLA0.4± 0.7high
Points
- William NylanderTOR1.2± 1.4high
- Aleksander BarkovFLA1.1± 1.1high
- Matthew TkachukFLA1.1± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands