NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4STL

TOR

31-30-13

STL

31-30-11

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasSTL -148

TOR · top performer

Jake McCabe

D · #22

1Points

—

SOG

STL · top performer

Dylan Holloway

LW · #81

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	0	0	-2	0	4	0	2	18:44
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	16:23
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:22
D. JoshuaC · #81	0	1	0	1	3	0	0	15:03
M. KniesLW · #23	0	0	-3	0	0	0	0	15:26
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:30
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	14:09
W. NylanderRW · #88	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	20:03
M. PezzettaLW · #61	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	8:49
J. QuillanC · #26	0	1	-1	0	0	1	0	16:07
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	17:43
J. TavaresC · #91	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	14:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	-1	1	4	1	0	17:35
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	19:26
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	20:00
J. McCabeD · #22	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	21:33
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	18:46
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	-1	0	1	4	0	17:43

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WollG · #60	38	5	33	.868	59:54

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	14:07
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	0	1	2	2	0	1	0	15:38
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	13:42
J. FinleyC · #37	0	0	0	0	4	1	4	10:38
D. HollowayLW · #81	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	18:17
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	13:37
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	2	2	2	1	0	0	14:38
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	17:36
O. StenbergC · #28	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	13:34
P. SuterC · #22	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:09
R. ThomasC · #18	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	19:57
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	11:37

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	21:51
C. FowlerD · #17	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	20:11
J. HollD · #4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:21
T. LindsteinD · #41	0	0	1	3	1	3	2	16:31
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	1	4	2	1	0	19:59
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	22:37

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BinningtonG · #50	13	1	12	.923	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

STL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 19

STL2@

TOR3

Mar 28

TOR1@

STL5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+12445%

STL-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 69 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat TOR 5-1. D. Holloway led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	0	1	1
STL	0	2	3	5

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · STL won 2

TOR

STL

Play-by-play · 269 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 1·STL 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 1·STL 5
3rd·19:43
Jacob Quillan shot blocked by Theo Lindstein
·
TOR 1·STL 5
3rd·19:43
Giveaway by Theo Lindstein
TOR 1·STL 5
3rd·19:18
Alexey Toropchenko Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 1·STL 5
3rd·18:46
Jack Finley faceoff won against Max Domi
·
TOR 1·STL 5
3rd·18:46
Puck in Netting
TOR 1·STL 5
3rd·18:41
Nicholas Robertson Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 1·STL 5
3rd·18:24
Max Domi faceoff won against Jack Finley
·
TOR 1·STL 5
3rd·18:24
Philip Broberg Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (14), Robert Thomas (32)
· ·
TOR 1·STL 5
3rd·18:00
Giveaway by Jimmy Snuggerud
TOR 1·STL 4
3rd·17:28
Steven Lorentz faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
TOR 1·STL 4
3rd·17:28
Matias Maccelli Holding against Colton Parayko
·
TOR 1·STL 4
3rd·17:15
John Tavares faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky
·
TOR 1·STL 4
3rd·17:15
Goalie Stopped
TOR 1·STL 4
3rd·17:13
Logan Mailloux Wrap-around saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 1·STL 4
3rd·17:06
Giveaway by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
TOR 1·STL 4
3rd·16:50
Giveaway by Jacob Quillan
TOR 1·STL 4
3rd·16:46
Morgan Rielly hit Pavel Buchnevich
·
TOR 1·STL 4
3rd·16:42
Giveaway by Easton Cowan
TOR 1·STL 4
3rd·16:21
Steven Lorentz Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
TOR 1·STL 4
3rd·15:59
Steven Lorentz Tip-In Wide Left
·
TOR 1·STL 4
3rd·15:58
Michael Pezzetta hit Justin Holl
·
TOR 1·STL 4
3rd·15:58
Takeaway by Jake McCabe
TOR 1·STL 4
3rd·15:49
Steven Lorentz faceoff won against Jack Finley
·
TOR 1·STL 4
3rd·15:49
Off-side
TOR 1·STL 4
3rd·15:37
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Steven Lorentz
·
TOR 1·STL 4
3rd·15:37
High Stick
TOR 1·STL 4
3rd·14:37
Simon Benoit hit Alexey Toropchenko
·
TOR 1·STL 4
3rd·14:28
Jack Finley hit Morgan Rielly
·
TOR 1·STL 4

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 5.5·TOR +124/STL -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 5–1.

STL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Dakota Joshua · TOR15:060.4843.3%45.9%15:06 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 43.3% CF · 45.9% xGF
Logan Mailloux · STL20:060.4653.6%60.4%20:06 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 53.6% CF · 60.4% xGF
Jake Neighbours · STL14:420.4368.4%80.4%14:42 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 68.4% CF · 80.4% xGF
Dylan Holloway · STL18:180.4053.8%55.4%18:18 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 53.8% CF · 55.4% xGF
Alexey Toropchenko · STL11:480.4050.0%65.0%11:48 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 50.0% CF · 65.0% xGF
John Tavares · TOR14:540.3335.3%26.5%14:54 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 35.3% CF · 26.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jordan Binnington · STL12–1.923+0.0312–1 · .923 SV% · +0.03 GSAx
Joseph Woll · PHI33–5.868-0.5933–5 · .868 SV% · -0.59 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.4%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
58.4%
P(STL win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.4%
P(STL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.4%
P(STL win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

Toronto Maple LeafsSt. Louis Blues

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