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FINAL+4STL
TOR

TOR

31-30-13

15
STL

STL

31-30-11

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasSTL -148

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 5–1.

STL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Dakota Joshua

Dakota Joshua

C · #81

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

STL · top performer

STL
Dylan Holloway

Dylan Holloway

LW · #81

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
5
TOR31-30-13STL31-30-11
TOR

TOR

31-30-13

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
STL

STL

31-30-11

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 19STLSTL2@TORTOR3
Mar 28TORTOR1@STLSTL5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR+12445%
STLSTL-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat TOR 5-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
TOR0011
STL0235

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · STL won 2

0
0

1

0
2

2

1
3

3

TOR
STL

Play-by-play · 269 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    TOR 1·STL 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    TOR 1·STL 5

  3. 3rd·19:43

    Jacob Quillan shot blocked by Theo Lindstein

    ·

    TOR 1·STL 5

  4. 3rd·19:43

    Giveaway by Theo Lindstein

    TOR 1·STL 5

  5. 3rd·19:18

    Alexey Toropchenko Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    TOR 1·STL 5

  6. 3rd·18:46

    Jack Finley faceoff won against Max Domi

    ·

    TOR 1·STL 5

  7. 3rd·18:46

    Puck in Netting

    TOR 1·STL 5

  8. 3rd·18:41

    Nicholas Robertson Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    TOR 1·STL 5

  9. 3rd·18:24

    Max Domi faceoff won against Jack Finley

    ·

    TOR 1·STL 5

  10. 3rd·18:24

    Philip Broberg Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (14), Robert Thomas (32)

    · ·

    TOR 1·STL 5

  11. 3rd·18:00

    Giveaway by Jimmy Snuggerud

    TOR 1·STL 4

  12. 3rd·17:28

    Steven Lorentz faceoff won against Robert Thomas

    ·

    TOR 1·STL 4

  13. 3rd·17:28

    Matias Maccelli Holding against Colton Parayko

    ·

    TOR 1·STL 4

  14. 3rd·17:15

    John Tavares faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky

    ·

    TOR 1·STL 4

  15. 3rd·17:15

    Goalie Stopped

    TOR 1·STL 4

  16. 3rd·17:13

    Logan Mailloux Wrap-around saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    TOR 1·STL 4

  17. 3rd·17:06

    Giveaway by Oliver Ekman-Larsson

    TOR 1·STL 4

  18. 3rd·16:50

    Giveaway by Jacob Quillan

    TOR 1·STL 4

  19. 3rd·16:46

    Morgan Rielly hit Pavel Buchnevich

    ·

    TOR 1·STL 4

  20. 3rd·16:42

    Giveaway by Easton Cowan

    TOR 1·STL 4

  21. 3rd·16:21

    Steven Lorentz Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    TOR 1·STL 4

  22. 3rd·15:59

    Steven Lorentz Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    TOR 1·STL 4

  23. 3rd·15:58

    Michael Pezzetta hit Justin Holl

    ·

    TOR 1·STL 4

  24. 3rd·15:58

    Takeaway by Jake McCabe

    TOR 1·STL 4

  25. 3rd·15:49

    Steven Lorentz faceoff won against Jack Finley

    ·

    TOR 1·STL 4

  26. 3rd·15:49

    Off-side

    TOR 1·STL 4

  27. 3rd·15:37

    Robert Thomas faceoff won against Steven Lorentz

    ·

    TOR 1·STL 4

  28. 3rd·15:37

    High Stick

    TOR 1·STL 4

  29. 3rd·14:37

    Simon Benoit hit Alexey Toropchenko

    ·

    TOR 1·STL 4

  30. 3rd·14:28

    Jack Finley hit Morgan Rielly

    ·

    TOR 1·STL 4

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

STL

Home

13

Shots

38

0.0

PCT

50.0

4

PIM

6

22

Faceoffs W

26

10

Blocks

6

25

Giveaways

9

6

Takeaways

3

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 5.5·TOR +124/STL -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Philip BrobergSTL · D
    BURSTS15898
  • Jimmy SnuggerudSTL · RW
    SHOT MPH95.697
  • Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
    SHOT MPH94.596
  • William NylanderTOR · RW
    SKATE MPH23.594
  • Colton ParaykoSTL · D
    BURSTS9494

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · STL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(STL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 111 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Auston MatthewsTOR
    3.6± 2.5high
  • Dylan HollowaySTL
    3.1± 1.3high
  • William NylanderTOR
    2.7± 2.3high

Goals

  • Robert ThomasSTL
    0.7± 1.2high
  • John TavaresTOR
    0.5± 0.7high
  • William NylanderTOR
    0.5± 0.7high

Points

  • Robert ThomasSTL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Dylan HollowaySTL
    1.2± 1.1high
  • William NylanderTOR
    1.2± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR