Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYR at TOR?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TOR

NYR

28-35-9

TOR

31-29-13

NHLWed, Mar 25FinalSeriesTOR wins series 2-1VegasNYR -130

NYR · top performer

Mika Zibanejad

C · #93

2Points

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

Dakota Joshua

C · #81

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodzinskiC · #22	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:05
J. ChmelarRW · #49	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	7:25
W. CuylleLW · #50	0	0	-1	7	5	0	0	15:54
T. KartyeLW · #24	0	0	-1	2	7	1	0	14:40
A. LafreniereLW · #13	1	2	0	7	0	0	0	21:06
J.T. MillerLW · #8	0	1	-1	4	0	0	0	18:37
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	17:41
T. RaddyshRW · #14	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	7:53
C. ShearyLW · #43	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	14:45
A. SykoraLW · #38	0	0	-2	3	0	1	0	13:33
V. TrocheckC · #16	0	0	-2	2	5	1	0	19:44
M. ZibanejadC · #93	2	0	0	10	2	0	0	22:12

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	16:48
A. FoxD · #23	0	2	-2	1	0	1	0	25:53
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	22:06
V. IorioD · #6	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:37
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	0	-1	1	2	0	2	16:34
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	0	-1	1	0	3	2	21:17

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ShesterkinG · #31	18	4	14	.778	58:10

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	19:07
M. DomiC · #11	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:29
B. GroulxC · #29	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:56
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:17
D. JoshuaC · #81	1	1	1	1	6	1	2	14:31
M. KniesLW · #23	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:25
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	11:47
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	14:28
W. NylanderRW · #88	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	20:35
J. QuillanC · #26	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	9:02
N. RobertsonLW · #89	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:00
J. TavaresC · #91	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	19:19

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	-1	2	4	2	2	17:27
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	2	1	3	3	0	22:16
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	17:25
J. McCabeD · #22	1	0	2	1	2	4	2	24:54
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:44
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	15:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WollG · #60	43	3	40	.930	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NYR

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

TOR wins series 2-1

Oct 16

NYR1@

TOR2

Mar 6

TOR2@

NYR6

Mar 25

NYR3@

TOR4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYR-13057%

TOR+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗

Line movement · 76 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat NYR 4-3. D. Joshua led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYR	0	2	1	3
TOR	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

NYR won 1 · TOR won 1

NYR

TOR

Play-by-play · 293 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·19:56
Mika Zibanejad Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·19:46
Brandon Carlo hit Alexis Lafrenière
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·19:40
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Calle Jarnkrok
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·19:40
Jake McCabe Cross-checking against Gabe Perreault
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·19:34
John Tavares faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·19:34
Puck in Crowd
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·19:15
Mika Zibanejad Slap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·19:11
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against John Tavares
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·19:11
Goalie Stopped
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·19:09
Mika Zibanejad Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·18:59
Mika Zibanejad shot blocked by Jake McCabe
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·18:53
Adam Fox shot blocked by Alexis Lafrenière
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·18:41
Alexis Lafrenière Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·18:27
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against John Tavares
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·18:27
Goalie Stopped
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·18:24
Alexis Lafrenière Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·18:18
Jake McCabe shot blocked by Will Borgen
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·18:13
William Nylander shot blocked by Will Borgen
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·17:43
Simon Benoit hit Jonny Brodzinski
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·17:36
Takeaway by Easton Cowan
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·16:43
Adam Fox shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·16:39
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Max Domi
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·16:39
Puck in Benches
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·16:18
Vincent Trocheck hit Simon Benoit
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·16:16
Will Cuylle hit Troy Stecher
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·16:09
Matthew Robertson shot blocked by Simon Benoit
· ·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·16:05
Bo Groulx hit Vincent Trocheck
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·15:43
Dakota Joshua hit Braden Schneider
·
NYR 3·TOR 4

Betting line

NYR -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYR -130/TOR +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs held off New York Rangers, 4–3.

TOR +1.5 cashed (NYR lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Mika Zibanejad · NYR22:120.7172.5%75.9%22:12 TOI · 0.71 iXG · 72.5% CF · 75.9% xGF
J.T. Miller · NYR18:420.6971.1%71.3%18:42 TOI · 0.69 iXG · 71.1% CF · 71.3% xGF
Alexis Lafrenière · NYR21:300.6978.4%85.7%21:30 TOI · 0.69 iXG · 78.4% CF · 85.7% xGF
Will Cuylle · NYR15:540.4776.3%82.4%15:54 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 76.3% CF · 82.4% xGF
Adam Sykora · NYR13:360.4063.6%64.9%13:36 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 63.6% CF · 64.9% xGF
John Tavares · TOR19:300.3442.1%36.4%19:30 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 42.1% CF · 36.4% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Joseph Woll · PHI40–3.930+0.9840–3 · .930 SV% · +0.98 GSAx
Igor Shesterkin · NYR14–4.778-2.2514–4 · .778 SV% · -2.25 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.3%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
58.3%
P(TOR win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.3%
P(TOR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.3%
P(TOR win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYR at TOR?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

New York RangersToronto Maple Leafs

Elsewhere in the NHL

Bruins4Sabres3Final/OT