NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TOR

NYR

28-35-9

TOR

31-29-13

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Mar 25FinalSeriesTOR wins series 2-1VegasNYR -130

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs held off New York Rangers, 4–3.

TOR +1.5 cashed (NYR lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYR · top performer

Alexis Lafreniere

LW · #13

3Points

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

Dakota Joshua

C · #81

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

NYR28-35-9

TOR31-29-13

NYR28-35-9TOR31-29-13

NYR

28-35-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

TOR

31-29-13

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

TOR wins series 2-1

Oct 16

NYR1@

TOR2

Mar 6

TOR2@

NYR6

Mar 25

NYR3@

TOR4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYR-13057%

TOR+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat NYR 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYR	0	2	1	3
TOR	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

NYR won 1 · TOR won 1

NYR

TOR

Play-by-play · 293 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·19:56
Mika Zibanejad Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·19:46
Brandon Carlo hit Alexis Lafrenière
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·19:40
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Calle Jarnkrok
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·19:40
Jake McCabe Cross-checking against Gabe Perreault
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·19:34
John Tavares faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·19:34
Puck in Crowd
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·19:15
Mika Zibanejad Slap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·19:11
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against John Tavares
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·19:11
Goalie Stopped
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·19:09
Mika Zibanejad Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·18:59
Mika Zibanejad shot blocked by Jake McCabe
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·18:53
Adam Fox shot blocked by Alexis Lafrenière
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·18:41
Alexis Lafrenière Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·18:27
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against John Tavares
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·18:27
Goalie Stopped
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·18:24
Alexis Lafrenière Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·18:18
Jake McCabe shot blocked by Will Borgen
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·18:13
William Nylander shot blocked by Will Borgen
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·17:43
Simon Benoit hit Jonny Brodzinski
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·17:36
Takeaway by Easton Cowan
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·16:43
Adam Fox shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·16:39
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Max Domi
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·16:39
Puck in Benches
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·16:18
Vincent Trocheck hit Simon Benoit
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·16:16
Will Cuylle hit Troy Stecher
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·16:09
Matthew Robertson shot blocked by Simon Benoit
· ·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·16:05
Bo Groulx hit Vincent Trocheck
·
NYR 3·TOR 4
3rd·15:43
Dakota Joshua hit Braden Schneider
·
NYR 3·TOR 4

Team stats

NYR

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

NYR -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYR -130/TOR +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

J.T. MillerNYR · LW
SHOT MPH102.699+
Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
SHOT MPH94.596
Vladislav GavrikovNYR · D
DIST MI263.494
Jake McCabeTOR · D
DIST MI253.292
Jaroslav ChmelarNYR · RW
SKATE MPH23.291

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

TOR vs NYR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 111 high confidence

Shots on goal

Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
William NylanderTOR
2.7± 2.3high
Mika ZibanejadNYR
2.2± 1.0high

Goals

John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high
William NylanderTOR
0.5± 0.7high
Gabe PerreaultNYR
0.4± 1.0high

Points

Adam FoxNYR
1.2± 1.0high
William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high
J.T. MillerNYR
1.0± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands