Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at OTT?

The model favors OTT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2OTT

TOR

32-36-14

OTT

44-27-11

NHLWed, Apr 15FinalSeriesOTT wins series 3-1VegasOTT -198

TOR · top performer

William Nylander

RW · #88

1Points

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

Claude Giroux

RW · #28

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	0	1	1	2	0	0	2	20:17
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	13:05
L. HaymesC · #43	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	14:44
M. KniesLW · #23	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	16:39
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	-1	1	8	0	0	16:22
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	14:29
W. NylanderRW · #88	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	20:28
M. PezzettaLW · #61	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	10:02
J. QuillanC · #26	0	1	1	0	3	1	0	12:51
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	13:03
J. TavaresC · #91	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	20:05
R. TverbergC · #77	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	10:40

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	18:23
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	21:04
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	19:35
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	20:03
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	19:09
W. VilleneuveD · #76	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:39

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. HildebyG · #35	37	2	35	.946	58:08

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BathersonRW · #19	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:08
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	13:56
D. CozensC · #24	1	0	1	4	3	0	0	18:35
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	14:28
W. FoegeleLW · #37	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:11
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	2	1	6	0	0	0	17:12
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	17:10
S. HallidayC · #83	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:42
H. HodgsonRW · #42	0	0	-1	1	6	0	0	13:00
K. MacDermidLW · #23	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	7:45
S. PintoC · #12	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	18:00
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	1	0	3	2	0	0	12:51

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CrottyD · #5	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	18:53
D. GilbertD · #6	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	15:32
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	18:39
J. SpenceD · #10	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	23:22
L. ThomsonD · #60	0	1	0	3	1	0	0	17:23
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	0	4	0	2	2	22:13

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ReimerG · #47	20	1	19	.950	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

66.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

OTT wins series 3-1

Dec 28

OTT5@

TOR7

Mar 1

OTT5@

TOR2

Mar 21

TOR2@

OTT5

Apr 15

TOR1@

OTT3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+16438%

OTT-19866%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 92 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat TOR 3-1. C. Giroux led the way — 2 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	0	1	1
OTT	1	1	1	3

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · OTT won 2

TOR

OTT

Play-by-play · 324 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 1·OTT 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 1·OTT 3
3rd·19:54
Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
TOR 1·OTT 3
3rd·19:54
Dylan Cozens Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (23), Claude Giroux (35)
· ·
TOR 1·OTT 3
3rd·19:47
Takeaway by Claude Giroux
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·19:22
John Tavares hit Jordan Spence
·
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·19:21
Jordan Spence shot blocked by John Tavares
·
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·19:07
Artem Zub shot blocked by Matthew Knies
·
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·18:40
Shane Pinto faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·18:40
Icing
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·18:35
Warren Foegele Wrist Shot Wide Left
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·18:22
John Tavares Backhand Wide Right
·
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·18:21
Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Artem Zub
·
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·18:08
Ridly Greig shot blocked by Max Domi
·
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·17:15
Giveaway by Luke Haymes
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·17:07
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Luke Haymes
·
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·17:07
Goalie Stopped
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·16:57
Warren Foegele shot blocked by Jake McCabe
·
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·16:34
Jordan Spence Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·16:31
Ridly Greig faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·16:31
Goalie Stopped
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·16:29
Fabian Zetterlund Backhand saved by Dennis Hildeby
·
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·16:21
William Villeneuve shot blocked by Nicholas Robertson
·
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·16:01
Claude Giroux Wrist Shot saved by Dennis Hildeby
·
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·15:00
Nikolas Matinpalo shot blocked by Simon Benoit
·
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·14:55
Simon Benoit hit Hayden Hodgson
·
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·14:45
Steven Lorentz Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·14:44
Simon Benoit Slap Shot saved by James Reimer
·
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·13:51
Stephen Halliday faceoff won against Jacob Quillan
·
TOR 1·OTT 2
3rd·13:51
Off-side
TOR 1·OTT 2

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +164/OTT -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 3–1.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.1%

ensemble · OTT favored

Elo Static
69.1%
P(OTT win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
69.1%
P(OTT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
69.1%
P(OTT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-198

Close price

-198

Open no-vig

63.7%

Close no-vig

63.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at OTT?: The model favors OTT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Toronto Maple LeafsOttawa Senators

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