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FINAL+2OTT
TOR

TOR

32-36-14

13
OTT

OTT

44-27-11

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Apr 15FinalSeriesOTT wins series 3-1VegasOTT -198

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 3–1.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Easton Cowan

Easton Cowan

RW · #53

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

OTT
Claude Giroux

Claude Giroux

RW · #28

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
3
TOR32-36-14OTT44-27-11
TOR

TOR

32-36-14

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
OTT

OTT

44-27-11

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

4

Season series

OTT wins series 3-1

Dec 28OTTOTT5@TORTOR7
Mar 1OTTOTT5@TORTOR2
Mar 21TORTOR2@OTTOTT5
Apr 15TORTOR1@OTTOTT3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR+16438%
OTTOTT-19866%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat TOR 3-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
TOR0011
OTT1113

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · OTT won 2

0
1

1

0
1

2

1
1

3

TOR
OTT

Play-by-play · 324 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    TOR 1·OTT 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    TOR 1·OTT 3

  3. 3rd·19:54

    Jacob Quillan faceoff won against Lars Eller

    ·

    TOR 1·OTT 3

  4. 3rd·19:54

    Dylan Cozens Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (23), Claude Giroux (35)

    · ·

    TOR 1·OTT 3

  5. 3rd·19:47

    Takeaway by Claude Giroux

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  6. 3rd·19:22

    John Tavares hit Jordan Spence

    ·

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  7. 3rd·19:21

    Jordan Spence shot blocked by John Tavares

    ·

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  8. 3rd·19:07

    Artem Zub shot blocked by Matthew Knies

    ·

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  9. 3rd·18:40

    Shane Pinto faceoff won against John Tavares

    ·

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  10. 3rd·18:40

    Icing

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  11. 3rd·18:35

    Warren Foegele Wrist Shot Wide Left

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  12. 3rd·18:22

    John Tavares Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  13. 3rd·18:21

    Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Artem Zub

    ·

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  14. 3rd·18:08

    Ridly Greig shot blocked by Max Domi

    ·

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  15. 3rd·17:15

    Giveaway by Luke Haymes

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  16. 3rd·17:07

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against Luke Haymes

    ·

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  17. 3rd·17:07

    Goalie Stopped

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  18. 3rd·16:57

    Warren Foegele shot blocked by Jake McCabe

    ·

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  19. 3rd·16:34

    Jordan Spence Wrist Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  20. 3rd·16:31

    Ridly Greig faceoff won against John Tavares

    ·

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  21. 3rd·16:31

    Goalie Stopped

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  22. 3rd·16:29

    Fabian Zetterlund Backhand saved by Dennis Hildeby

    ·

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  23. 3rd·16:21

    William Villeneuve shot blocked by Nicholas Robertson

    ·

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  24. 3rd·16:01

    Claude Giroux Wrist Shot saved by Dennis Hildeby

    ·

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  25. 3rd·15:00

    Nikolas Matinpalo shot blocked by Simon Benoit

    ·

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  26. 3rd·14:55

    Simon Benoit hit Hayden Hodgson

    ·

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  27. 3rd·14:45

    Steven Lorentz Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  28. 3rd·14:44

    Simon Benoit Slap Shot saved by James Reimer

    ·

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  29. 3rd·13:51

    Stephen Halliday faceoff won against Jacob Quillan

    ·

    TOR 1·OTT 2

  30. 3rd·13:51

    Off-side

    TOR 1·OTT 2

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

20

Shots

38

0.0

PCT

66.7

6

PIM

4

23

Faceoffs W

31

13

Blocks

7

22

Giveaways

18

3

Takeaways

5

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +164/OTT -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE
  • William NylanderTOR · RW
    SKATE MPH23.594
  • Nikolas MatinpaloOTT · D
    SKATE MPH22.592
  • Jake McCabeTOR · D
    DIST MI253.292
  • Morgan RiellyTOR · D
    BURSTS7190
  • Simon BenoitTOR · D
    BURSTS7090

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · OTT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-198

Close price

-198

Open no-vig

63.7%

Close no-vig

63.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR