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FINAL+1BUF
TOR

TOR

28-27-12

23
BUF

BUF

41-20-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 14FinalSeriesBUF wins series 3-1VegasBUF -230

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 3–2.

TOR +1.5 cashed (BUF won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Max Domi

Max Domi

C · #11

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Zach Benson

Zach Benson

LW · #6

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
2
3
TOR28-27-12BUF41-20-6
TOR

TOR

28-27-12

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

41-20-6

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

19

PIM

15

Season series

BUF wins series 3-1

Oct 24TORTOR3@BUFBUF5
Oct 25BUFBUF3@TORTOR4
Jan 28BUFBUF7@TORTOR4
Mar 14TORTOR2@BUFBUF3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR+19034%
BUFBUF-23070%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat TOR 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
TOR110002
BUF110013

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · BUF won 1

1
1

1

1
1

2

0
0

3

0
0

OT

0
1

SO

TOR
BUF

Play-by-play · 342 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    TOR 0·BUF 2

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    TOR 0·BUF 2

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    TOR 0·BUF 2

  4. SO·0:00

    Alex Tuch Goal Wrist Shot

    TOR 0·BUF 2

  5. SO·0:00

    Easton Cowan Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    TOR 0·BUF 2

  6. SO·0:00

    Jack Quinn Goal Wrist Shot

    TOR 0·BUF 2

  7. SO·0:00

    William Nylander Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    TOR 0·BUF 2

  8. SO·0:00

    Tage Thompson Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    TOR 0·BUF 2

  9. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    TOR 0·BUF 2

  10. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    TOR 2·BUF 2

  11. OT·4:54

    Alex Tuch Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    TOR 2·BUF 2

  12. OT·4:03

    Tage Thompson Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    TOR 2·BUF 2

  13. OT·2:16

    Jack Quinn shot blocked by Morgan Rielly

    ·

    TOR 2·BUF 2

  14. OT·2:07

    John Tavares Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    TOR 2·BUF 2

  15. OT·1:50

    Tage Thompson hit John Tavares

    ·

    TOR 2·BUF 2

  16. OT·1:11

    John Tavares faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    TOR 2·BUF 2

  17. OT·1:11

    Net Dislodged by Goaltender

    TOR 2·BUF 2

  18. OT·1:09

    Easton Cowan Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    TOR 2·BUF 2

  19. OT·1:02

    Josh Norris Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    TOR 2·BUF 2

  20. OT·0:56

    Giveaway by Easton Cowan

    TOR 2·BUF 2

  21. OT·0:00

    Max Domi faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    TOR 2·BUF 2

  22. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    TOR 2·BUF 2

  23. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    TOR 2·BUF 2

  24. 3rd·19:22

    Rasmus Dahlin shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson

    ·

    TOR 2·BUF 2

  25. 3rd·19:11

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Benoit-Olivier Groulx

    · ·

    TOR 2·BUF 2

  26. 3rd·19:11

    John Tavares Roughing against Bowen Byram

    ·

    TOR 2·BUF 2

  27. 3rd·19:11

    Bowen Byram Holding the stick against John Tavares

    ·

    TOR 2·BUF 2

  28. 3rd·18:41

    Tage Thompson Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    TOR 2·BUF 2

  29. 3rd·18:40

    Zach Benson shot blocked by Jake McCabe

    ·

    TOR 2·BUF 2

  30. 3rd·18:29

    Bowen Byram Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    TOR 2·BUF 2

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

18

Shots

33

0.0

PCT

25.0

19

PIM

15

27

Faceoffs W

24

22

Blocks

9

22

Giveaways

15

6

Takeaways

5

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +190/BUF -230

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
    SHOT MPH94.596
  • Philippe MyersTOR · D
    SHOT MPH99.395
  • William NylanderTOR · RW
    SKATE MPH23.594
  • Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
    DIST MI46.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-230

Close price

-230

Open no-vig

66.9%

Close no-vig

66.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR