Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at BUF?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BUF

TOR

28-27-12

BUF

41-20-6

NHLSat, Mar 14FinalSeriesBUF wins series 3-1VegasBUF -230

TOR · top performer

Max Domi

C · #11

1Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Jack Quinn

RW · #22

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	15:07
M. DomiC · #11	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	16:47
B. GroulxC · #29	0	0	1	2	5	1	0	19:08
C. JarnkrokC · #19	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:38
D. JoshuaC · #81	1	0	1	1	6	0	5	11:58
M. KniesLW · #23	0	1	1	0	3	0	2	20:09
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	0	-1	2	4	0	0	19:25
W. NylanderRW · #88	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	21:18
M. PezzettaLW · #61	0	0	0	1	3	1	4	6:29
J. QuillanC · #26	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	10:10
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	14:35
J. TavaresC · #91	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	19:50

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	1	1	3	5	0	17:05
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	19:18
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	0	0	1	2	2	6	21:59
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	26:19
P. MyersD · #51	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	16:53
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	19:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WollG · #60	33	2	31	.939	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	14:43
S. CarrickC · #10	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	10:34
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	19:02
P. KrebsC · #19	0	0	-1	3	3	1	0	11:13
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	1	0	5	0	0	11:27
R. McLeodC · #71	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	17:56
J. NorrisC · #9	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	19:13
N. OstlundC · #86	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	15:46
J. QuinnRW · #22	1	0	-1	2	0	0	0	13:42
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	0	-1	4	1	0	0	21:19
A. TuchRW · #89	0	0	-1	5	1	0	0	20:52
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	16:24

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	25:35
R. DahlinD · #26	0	0	-1	3	2	3	2	26:12
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:32
O. PowerD · #25	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	23:50
L. SchennD · #5	0	0	-1	2	3	1	9	11:02
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	15:49

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. LyonG · #34	18	2	16	.889	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BUF wins series 3-1

Oct 24

TOR3@

BUF5

Oct 25

BUF3@

TOR4

Jan 28

BUF7@

TOR4

Mar 14

TOR2@

BUF3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+19034%

BUF-23070%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 33 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat TOR 3-2. J. Quinn led the way — 1 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
TOR	1	1	0	0	0	2
BUF	1	1	0	0	1	3

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · BUF won 1

TOR

BUF

Play-by-play · 342 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
TOR 0·BUF 2
SO·0:00
End of OT
TOR 0·BUF 2
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
TOR 0·BUF 2
SO·0:00
Alex Tuch Goal Wrist Shot
TOR 0·BUF 2
SO·0:00
Easton Cowan Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 0·BUF 2
SO·0:00
Jack Quinn Goal Wrist Shot
TOR 0·BUF 2
SO·0:00
William Nylander Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon
·
TOR 0·BUF 2
SO·0:00
Tage Thompson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
TOR 0·BUF 2
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
TOR 0·BUF 2
OT·5:00
End of OT
TOR 2·BUF 2
OT·4:54
Alex Tuch Snap Shot Wide Right
·
TOR 2·BUF 2
OT·4:03
Tage Thompson Snap Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 2·BUF 2
OT·2:16
Jack Quinn shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
·
TOR 2·BUF 2
OT·2:07
John Tavares Backhand Wide Right
·
TOR 2·BUF 2
OT·1:50
Tage Thompson hit John Tavares
·
TOR 2·BUF 2
OT·1:11
John Tavares faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
TOR 2·BUF 2
OT·1:11
Net Dislodged by Goaltender
TOR 2·BUF 2
OT·1:09
Easton Cowan Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon
·
TOR 2·BUF 2
OT·1:02
Josh Norris Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 2·BUF 2
OT·0:56
Giveaway by Easton Cowan
TOR 2·BUF 2
OT·0:00
Max Domi faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
TOR 2·BUF 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
TOR 2·BUF 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 2·BUF 2
3rd·19:22
Rasmus Dahlin shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
·
TOR 2·BUF 2
3rd·19:11
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Benoit-Olivier Groulx
· ·
TOR 2·BUF 2
3rd·19:11
John Tavares Roughing against Bowen Byram
·
TOR 2·BUF 2
3rd·19:11
Bowen Byram Holding the stick against John Tavares
·
TOR 2·BUF 2
3rd·18:41
Tage Thompson Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 2·BUF 2
3rd·18:40
Zach Benson shot blocked by Jake McCabe
·
TOR 2·BUF 2
3rd·18:29
Bowen Byram Slap Shot Wide Right
·
TOR 2·BUF 2

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +190/BUF -230

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 3–2.

TOR +1.5 cashed (BUF won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Tage Thompson · BUF21:240.7980.0%83.3%21:24 TOI · 0.79 iXG · 80.0% CF · 83.3% xGF
Alex Tuch · WSH21:240.7475.7%76.4%21:24 TOI · 0.74 iXG · 75.7% CF · 76.4% xGF
Zach Benson · BUF15:060.6670.0%70.7%15:06 TOI · 0.66 iXG · 70.0% CF · 70.7% xGF
William Nylander · TOR21:300.4542.9%43.7%21:30 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 42.9% CF · 43.7% xGF
Beck Malenstyn · BUF11:360.3854.5%64.1%11:36 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 54.5% CF · 64.1% xGF
Josh Norris · BUF19:240.3778.4%81.2%19:24 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 78.4% CF · 81.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Joseph Woll · PHI31–2.939+1.5831–2 · .939 SV% · +1.58 GSAx
Alex Lyon · BUF16–2.889+0.1716–2 · .889 SV% · +0.17 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.7%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
69.7%
P(BUF win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
69.7%
P(BUF win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
69.7%
P(BUF win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-230

Close price

-230

Open no-vig

66.9%

Close no-vig

66.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at BUF?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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