NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2MTL

TOR

27-27-11

MTL

35-18-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 10FinalSeriesMTL wins series 3-1VegasMTL -170

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 3–1.

MTL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

Easton Cowan

RW · #53

1Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Phillip Danault

C · #24

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

TOR27-27-11

MTL35-18-10

TOR27-27-11MTL35-18-10

TOR

27-27-11

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

MTL

35-18-10

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

MTL wins series 3-1

Oct 8

MTL2@

TOR5

Nov 23

TOR2@

MTL5

Dec 7

MTL2@

TOR1

Mar 10

TOR1@

MTL3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+14241%

MTL-17063%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat TOR 3-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	1	0	1
MTL	2	0	1	3

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · MTL won 2

TOR

MTL

Play-by-play · 312 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 1·MTL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 1·MTL 3
3rd·19:32
Oliver Kapanen faceoff won against Jacob Quillan
·
TOR 1·MTL 3
3rd·19:32
Jake Evans Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (27)
·
TOR 1·MTL 3
3rd·19:22
John Tavares shot blocked by Mike Matheson
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:43
Jake Evans faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:43
Timeout - Visitor
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:43
Icing
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:38
Josh Anderson Wrist Shot Wide Left
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:23
John Tavares Snap Shot Short
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·17:56
Josh Anderson shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·17:55
Easton Cowan shot blocked by Jake Evans
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·17:32
Auston Matthews hit Mike Matheson
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·16:54
Brandon Carlo shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·16:52
Benoit-Olivier Groulx hit Noah Dobson
· ·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·16:41
Benoit-Olivier Groulx faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
· ·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·16:41
Goalie Stopped
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·16:39
Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·15:21
Josh Anderson Tip-In saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·15:19
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Jacob Quillan
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·15:19
Goalie Stopped
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·15:17
Noah Dobson Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·14:58
Kirby Dach Snap Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·14:34
Takeaway by Auston Matthews
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·14:00
Giveaway by Steven Lorentz
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·13:53
Nick Suzuki Backhand Wide Right
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·13:49
Takeaway by Lane Hutson
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·13:26
Auston Matthews faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·13:26
Oliver Ekman-Larsson Tripping against Alex Newhook
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·13:08
Brandon Carlo Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
TOR 1·MTL 2

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +142/MTL -170

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE

Lane HutsonMTL · D
DIST MI71.899+
Josh AndersonMTL · RW
BURSTS7699+
Mike MathesonMTL · D
DIST MI62.999
Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
DIST MI56.699
Arber XhekajMTL · D
SHOT MPH98.598

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-170

Close price

-170

Open no-vig

60.4%

Close no-vig

60.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

MTL vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 111 high confidence

Shots on goal

Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high
William NylanderTOR
2.7± 2.3high

Goals

Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high
William NylanderTOR
0.5± 0.7high

Points

William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high
John TavaresTOR
1.0± 1.1high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands