Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at MTL?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2MTL

TOR

27-27-11

MTL

35-18-10

NHLTue, Mar 10FinalSeriesMTL wins series 3-1VegasMTL -170

TOR · top performer

William Nylander

RW · #88

1Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Jake Evans

C · #71

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CowanRW · #53	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	18:21
M. DomiC · #11	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:37
B. GroulxC · #29	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	14:13
D. JoshuaC · #81	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	8:56
M. KniesLW · #23	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	19:04
S. LorentzC · #18	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	10:38
M. MaccelliLW · #63	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	13:46
A. MatthewsC · #34	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	22:28
W. NylanderRW · #88	1	0	-2	3	0	0	0	20:03
J. QuillanC · #26	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	8:25
N. RobertsonLW · #89	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:47
J. TavaresC · #91	0	0	-3	2	0	0	0	20:14

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BenoitD · #2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:28
B. CarloD · #25	0	0	-1	2	2	2	0	19:00
O. Ekman-LarssonD · #95	0	0	-1	0	1	3	2	24:02
J. McCabeD · #22	0	0	0	1	2	1	7	19:03
M. RiellyD · #44	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	19:10
T. StecherD · #28	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	16:21

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WollG · #60	32	2	30	.938	57:59

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	13:58
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	14:24
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	10:27
K. DachC · #77	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	11:36
P. DanaultC · #24	1	0	2	1	0	1	0	15:12
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	17:31
J. EvansC · #71	1	0	1	4	3	1	0	15:06
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	1	0	1	0	7	11:06
O. KapanenC · #91	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	15:07
A. NewhookC · #15	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	14:20
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	19:51
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	20:05

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	1	2	0	3	0	18:56
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	-1	3	0	4	0	19:13
K. GuhleD · #21	0	1	2	1	2	2	0	22:26
L. HutsonD · #48	0	1	2	4	0	0	2	21:33
M. MathesonD · #8	0	1	0	2	1	3	0	23:49
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	0	1	3	1	2	10:59

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	18	1	17	.944	59:56

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

MTL wins series 3-1

Oct 8

MTL2@

TOR5

Nov 23

TOR2@

MTL5

Dec 7

MTL2@

TOR1

Mar 10

TOR1@

MTL3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+14241%

MTL-17063%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 17 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat TOR 3-1. J. Evans led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	1	0	1
MTL	2	0	1	3

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · MTL won 2

TOR

MTL

Play-by-play · 312 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TOR 1·MTL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 1·MTL 3
3rd·19:32
Oliver Kapanen faceoff won against Jacob Quillan
·
TOR 1·MTL 3
3rd·19:32
Jake Evans Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (27)
·
TOR 1·MTL 3
3rd·19:22
John Tavares shot blocked by Mike Matheson
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:43
Jake Evans faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:43
Timeout - Visitor
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:43
Icing
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:38
Josh Anderson Wrist Shot Wide Left
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:23
John Tavares Snap Shot Short
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·17:56
Josh Anderson shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·17:55
Easton Cowan shot blocked by Jake Evans
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·17:32
Auston Matthews hit Mike Matheson
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·16:54
Brandon Carlo shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·16:52
Benoit-Olivier Groulx hit Noah Dobson
· ·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·16:41
Benoit-Olivier Groulx faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
· ·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·16:41
Goalie Stopped
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·16:39
Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·15:21
Josh Anderson Tip-In saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·15:19
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Jacob Quillan
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·15:19
Goalie Stopped
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·15:17
Noah Dobson Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·14:58
Kirby Dach Snap Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·14:34
Takeaway by Auston Matthews
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·14:00
Giveaway by Steven Lorentz
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·13:53
Nick Suzuki Backhand Wide Right
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·13:49
Takeaway by Lane Hutson
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·13:26
Auston Matthews faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·13:26
Oliver Ekman-Larsson Tripping against Alex Newhook
·
TOR 1·MTL 2
3rd·13:08
Brandon Carlo Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
TOR 1·MTL 2

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +142/MTL -170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 3–1.

MTL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jake Evans · MTL15:181.0760.9%74.8%15:18 TOI · 1.07 iXG · 60.9% CF · 74.8% xGF
Oliver Kapanen · MTL15:120.7253.1%72.4%15:12 TOI · 0.72 iXG · 53.1% CF · 72.4% xGF
Lane Hutson · MTL21:480.5670.0%77.4%21:48 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 70.0% CF · 77.4% xGF
Juraj Slafkovský · MTL20:060.4557.5%72.7%20:06 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 57.5% CF · 72.7% xGF
Zachary Bolduc · MTL14:300.3958.3%76.2%14:30 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 58.3% CF · 76.2% xGF
Auston Matthews · TOR22:420.3937.0%31.9%22:42 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 37.0% CF · 31.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Joseph Woll · PHI30–2.938+2.4630–2 · .938 SV% · +2.46 GSAx
Jakub Dobes · MTL17–1.944+1.2817–1 · .944 SV% · +1.28 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.1%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
65.1%
P(MTL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
65.1%
P(MTL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
65.1%
P(MTL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-170

Close price

-170

Open no-vig

60.4%

Close no-vig

60.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at MTL?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

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