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Buffalo Sabres

Eastern Conference · 2 seed

Buffalo Sabres

50-23 · L1 · L10 6-3-1

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Elo rating

#3 of 32

Elo rating 1565.7 · as of 2026-06-15 · nhl_team_ratings

Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Final 5 · 2026

2026-05-10 → 2026-05-18 · Full ATS profile →

LLost by 4 at MTL, 2-6, 2026-05-10. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 1 at MTL, 3-2, 2026-05-12. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 3 vs MTL, 3-6, 2026-05-14. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 5 at MTL, 8-3, 2026-05-16. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 1 vs MTL, 2-3, 2026-05-18. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 

Stat leaders

Who carries them

Points

  1. 1Tage Thompson81 GP81
  2. 2Rasmus Dahlin77 GP74
  3. 3Alex Tuch79 GP66
  4. 4Ryan McLeod81 GP54
  5. 5Josh Doan82 GP52

Goals

  1. 1Tage Thompson81 GP40
  2. 2Alex Tuch79 GP33
  3. 3Josh Doan82 GP25
  4. 4Jason Zucker62 GP24
  5. 5Jack Quinn82 GP20

Assists

  1. 1Rasmus Dahlin77 GP55
  2. 2Tage Thompson81 GP41
  3. 3Ryan McLeod81 GP40
  4. 4Alex Tuch79 GP33
  5. 5Bowen Byram82 GP31

Power-play goals

  1. 1Jason Zucker62 GP10
  2. 2Josh Doan82 GP9
  3. 3Alex Tuch79 GP7
  4. 4Tage Thompson81 GP6
  5. 5Rasmus Dahlin77 GP6

Save percentage

  1. 1Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen34 GS.910
  2. 2Alex Lyon34 GS.907
  3. 3Colten Ellis14 GS.903

Min 10 starts.

Goals against average

  1. 1Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen34 GS2.52
  2. 2Alex Lyon34 GS2.77
  3. 3Colten Ellis14 GS2.90

Min 10 starts.

2025-26 regular season · NHL club-stats API (api-web.nhle.com) · counting boards ungated; goalie SV% / GAA min 10 starts

Period identity

When they score

Pattern by period

12 games · for vs against

0.40.81.11.5P1 · 1.33 for / 1.08 against · margin +0.25P1P2 · 0.83 for / 1.17 against · margin -0.33P2P3 · 1.08 for / 0.58 against · margin +0.50PEAKP3PERIODS · LAST 12 GAMES
ForAgainst

3.3 avg / 2.8 allowed

Scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 3.3 goals

2457AVG 3.3041627364556789GOALS PER GAME

Form heatmap

The margin trail

Margin trail

Last 30 games · 2026-03-12 → 2026-05-18

Record

17-13

Win pct

56.7%

Avg margin

+0.5

Longest W

4

Longest L

3

Upset wins

4

Favorite losses

11

2026-03-12 · vs WSH · L 1-2 · model gave 67%WSH2026-03-14 · vs TOR · W 3-2 · model gave 70%TOR2026-03-18 · @ VGK · W 2-0 · model gave 53%VGK2026-03-20 · @ SJ · W 5-0 · model gave 53%SJ2026-03-21 · @ LA · W 4-1 · model gave 58%LA2026-03-23 · @ ANA · L 5-6 · model gave 52%ANA2026-03-25 · vs BOS · L 3-4 · model gave 65%BOS2026-03-27 · vs DET · L 2-5 · model gave 65%DET2026-03-28 · vs SEA · W 3-2 · model gave 68%SEA2026-03-31 · vs NYI · W 4-3 · model gave 63%NYI2026-04-02 · @ OTT · L 1-4 · model gave 50%OTT2026-04-04 · @ WSH · L 2-6 · model gave 51%WSH2026-04-06 · vs TB · W 4-2 · model gave 56%TB2026-04-08 · @ NYR · W 5-3 · model gave 55%NYR2026-04-09 · vs CBJ · W 5-0 · model gave 65%CBJ2026-04-14 · @ CHI · W 5-1 · model gave 63%CHI2026-04-15 · vs DAL · L 3-4 · model gave 60%DAL2026-04-19 · vs BOS · W 4-3 · model gave 63%BOS2026-04-21 · vs BOS · L 2-4 · model gave 64%BOS2026-04-23 · @ BOS · W 3-1 · model gave 48%BOS2026-04-26 · @ BOS · W 6-1 · model gave 49%BOS2026-04-28 · vs BOS · L 1-2 · model gave 65%BOS2026-05-01 · @ BOS · W 4-1 · model gave 51%BOS2026-05-06 · vs MTL · W 4-2 · model gave 58%MTL2026-05-08 · vs MTL · L 1-5 · model gave 59%MTL2026-05-10 · @ MTL · L 2-6 · model gave 43%MTL2026-05-12 · @ MTL · W 3-2 · model gave 45%MTL2026-05-14 · vs MTL · L 3-6 · model gave 58%MTL2026-05-16 · @ MTL · W 8-3 · model gave 44%MTL2026-05-18 · vs MTL · L 2-3 · model gave 55%MTL

Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

95 games · 2025-10-09 → 2026-05-18

Peak 1574 · Now 1566 · Trough 1471

Forwards · 21

Forwards

Alex Tuch

Alex Tuch

RW · #89

66 PTS33 G
Anton Wahlberg

Anton Wahlberg

C · #92

Beck Malenstyn

Beck Malenstyn

LW · #29

14 PTS7 G
Jack Quinn

Jack Quinn

RW · #22

51 PTS20 G
Jason Zucker

Jason Zucker

LW · #17

45 PTS24 G
Jiri Kulich

Jiri Kulich

C · #20

5 PTS3 G
Jordan Greenway

Jordan Greenway

LW · #12

6 PTS1 G
Josh Doan

Josh Doan

RW · #91

52 PTS25 G
Josh Dunne

Josh Dunne

C · #44

4 PTS1 G
Josh Norris

Josh Norris

C · #9

34 PTS13 G
Justin Danforth

Justin Danforth

RW · #15

0 PTS0 G
Konsta Helenius

Konsta Helenius

C · #94

4 PTS1 G
Noah Ostlund

Noah Ostlund

C · #86

27 PTS11 G
Peyton Krebs

Peyton Krebs

C · #19

39 PTS12 G

Riley Fiddler-Schultz

C · #45

Ryan McLeod

Ryan McLeod

C · #71

54 PTS14 G
Sam Carrick

Sam Carrick

C · #10

16 PTS9 G
Tage Thompson

Tage Thompson

C · #72

81 PTS40 G
Tanner Pearson

Tanner Pearson

LW · #70

15 PTS7 G
Tyson Kozak

Tyson Kozak

C · #48

6 PTS2 G
Zach Benson

Zach Benson

LW · #6

43 PTS13 G

Defensemen · 13

The blue line

Artem Kriukov

D

Bowen Byram

Bowen Byram

D · #4

42 PTS11 G
Conor Timmins

Conor Timmins

D · #21

8 PTS0 G
Logan Stanley

Logan Stanley

D · #64

26 PTS9 G
Luke Schenn

Luke Schenn

D · #5

7 PTS1 G
Mattias Samuelsson

Mattias Samuelsson

D · #23

41 PTS13 G
Michael Kesselring

Michael Kesselring

D · #8

2 PTS0 G
Owen Power

Owen Power

D · #25

29 PTS8 G

Radim Mrtka

D · #57

Rasmus Dahlin

Rasmus Dahlin

D · #26

74 PTS19 G
Ryan Johnson

Ryan Johnson

D · #33

0 PTS0 G
Vsevolod Komarov

Vsevolod Komarov

D · #76

Zach Metsa

Zach Metsa

D · #73

6 PTS2 G

Goalies · 4

In the crease

Alex Lyon

Alex Lyon

G · #34

Colten Ellis

Colten Ellis

G · #92

Devon Levi

Devon Levi

G · #27

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

G · #1

← All NHL teams

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

65%Last 7 · 60-33
61%Last 30 · 297-187
Receipts →
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Gilbert (SEA): 7.0 IP · 10 K · 1 ER in a win over BAL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 21 PTS · 5 REB · 14 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Salt Lake (PCL) (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Luzardo (PHI): 7.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER in a win over MIA
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Cease (TOR): 5.0 IP · 7 K in a win over BOS
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Placed RHP Brad Keller on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 14 (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBF. Valdez (DET): 6.0 IP · 6 K against HOU
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Boston (IND): 18 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated 3B Santiago Espinal for assignment (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLPredators: Acquired C Ross Colton and G Isak Posch from Colorado for G Magnus Chrona, a 2…
TRANSACTION · NHLCanucks: Signed D Cole Clayton to a one-year contract. (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLMaple Leafs: Acquired G Samuel Ersson, D Emil Andrae and a 2026 third-round pick from Phi…
TONIGHT · WNBANY @ CHI, 6/17 - 8:00 PM EDT — NY -9.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Gilbert (SEA): 7.0 IP · 10 K · 1 ER in a win over BAL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 21 PTS · 5 REB · 14 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Salt Lake (PCL) (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Luzardo (PHI): 7.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER in a win over MIA
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Cease (TOR): 5.0 IP · 7 K in a win over BOS
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Placed RHP Brad Keller on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 14 (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBF. Valdez (DET): 6.0 IP · 6 K against HOU
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Boston (IND): 18 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated 3B Santiago Espinal for assignment (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLPredators: Acquired C Ross Colton and G Isak Posch from Colorado for G Magnus Chrona, a 2…
TRANSACTION · NHLCanucks: Signed D Cole Clayton to a one-year contract. (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLMaple Leafs: Acquired G Samuel Ersson, D Emil Andrae and a 2026 third-round pick from Phi…
TONIGHT · WNBANY @ CHI, 6/17 - 8:00 PM EDT — NY -9.5

Model picks on BUF

Below the 30-pick gate (n=26)