Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at VGK?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2BUF

BUF

42-20-6

VGK

31-23-14

NHLTue, Mar 17FinalSeriesBUF wins series 2-0VegasVGK -135

BUF · top performer

Josh Norris

C · #9

1Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	17:17
S. CarrickC · #10	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	13:40
J. DoanRW · #91	1	0	2	3	1	0	0	13:30
T. KozakC · #48	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	11:10
P. KrebsC · #19	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	11:10
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	12:30
R. McLeodC · #71	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:58
J. NorrisC · #9	1	0	2	5	0	2	0	13:28
N. OstlundC · #86	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	15:46
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	15:41
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	19:21
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:55

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	21:31
R. DahlinD · #26	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	22:51
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:53
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	21:41
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	1	1	1	0	4	0	22:20
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	16:18

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. LuukkonenG · #1	29	0	29	1.000	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	14:31
B. BowmanRW · #42	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	14:04
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	17:18
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	11:17
J. EichelC · #9	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	20:06
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	-1	3	5	0	0	17:39
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	0	2	3	1	2	13:56
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	10:40
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	22:23
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	13:49
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	10:03
M. StoneRW · #61	0	0	-2	3	1	1	0	19:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	21:15
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	20:23
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	13:03
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	15:40
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	0	3	2	1	2	18:37
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	20:37

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. HillG · #33	24	1	23	.958	59:29

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BUF wins series 2-0

Mar 4

VGK2@

BUF3

Mar 18

BUF2@

VGK0today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUF+11447%

VGK-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat VGK 2-0. J. Norris led the way — 1 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
BUF	1	0	1	2
VGK	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · VGK won 0

BUF

VGK

Play-by-play · 322 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
BUF 2·VGK 0
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BUF 2·VGK 0
3rd·19:37
Giveaway by Beck Malenstyn
BUF 2·VGK 0
3rd·19:21
Jeremy Lauzon hit Tage Thompson
·
BUF 2·VGK 0
3rd·19:02
Colton Sissons faceoff won against Sam Carrick
·
BUF 2·VGK 0
3rd·19:02
Josh Norris Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (22), Mattias Samuelsson (25)
· ·
BUF 2·VGK 0
3rd·18:55
Mattias Samuelsson shot blocked by Mark Stone
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·18:37
Mark Stone Deflected saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·17:45
Shea Theodore shot blocked by Bowen Byram
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·17:23
Tyson Kozak Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·17:07
Braeden Bowman Deflected Wide Left
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·16:27
Shea Theodore shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·16:15
Brayden McNabb shot blocked by Tage Thompson
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·16:04
Brayden McNabb Slap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·15:41
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·15:41
Icing
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·15:02
Ivan Barbashev Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·14:58
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Josh Norris
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·14:58
Puck in Netting
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·14:55
Mitch Marner Snap Shot Off Crossbar
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·14:32
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·14:32
Icing
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·13:52
Rasmus Dahlin shot blocked by Rasmus Andersson
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·13:34
Noah Hanifin Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·13:13
Brett Howden hit Zach Benson
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·13:02
Giveaway by Zach Metsa
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·12:58
Zach Benson hit Colton Sissons
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·12:53
Noah Hanifin shot blocked by Tage Thompson
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·12:49
Colton Sissons Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
3rd·12:37
Noah Ostlund Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
BUF 1·VGK 0

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF +114/VGK -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 2–0.

BUF +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.9%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
46.9%
P(VGK win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
46.9%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
46.9%
P(VGK win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at VGK?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Buffalo SabresVegas Golden Knights

Elsewhere in the NHL