
BUF
42-20-6

VGK
31-23-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
uffalo Sabres went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 2–0.
BUF +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 4.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
BUF · top performer

Josh Doan
RW · #91
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
VGK · top performer

Ivan Barbashev
LW · #49
0
G
0
A
—
SOG
NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


BUF
42-20-6
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
VGK
31-23-14
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
8
PIM
6
Season series
BUF wins series 2-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
VGK -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 9 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
BUF beat VGK 2-0.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Period scoring
BUF won 2 · VGK won 0
1
2
3
Play-by-play · 322 plays
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
BUF 2·VGK 0
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BUF 2·VGK 0
- 3rd·19:37
Giveaway by Beck Malenstyn
BUF 2·VGK 0
- 3rd·19:21
Jeremy Lauzon hit Tage Thompson
·
BUF 2·VGK 0
- 3rd·19:02
Colton Sissons faceoff won against Sam Carrick
·
BUF 2·VGK 0
- 3rd·19:02
Josh Norris Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (22), Mattias Samuelsson (25)
· ·
BUF 2·VGK 0
- 3rd·18:55
Mattias Samuelsson shot blocked by Mark Stone
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·18:37
Mark Stone Deflected saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·17:45
Shea Theodore shot blocked by Bowen Byram
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·17:23
Tyson Kozak Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·17:07
Braeden Bowman Deflected Wide Left
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·16:27
Shea Theodore shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·16:15
Brayden McNabb shot blocked by Tage Thompson
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·16:04
Brayden McNabb Slap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·15:41
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·15:41
Icing
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·15:02
Ivan Barbashev Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·14:58
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Josh Norris
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·14:58
Puck in Netting
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·14:55
Mitch Marner Snap Shot Off Crossbar
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·14:32
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·14:32
Icing
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·13:52
Rasmus Dahlin shot blocked by Rasmus Andersson
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·13:34
Noah Hanifin Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·13:13
Brett Howden hit Zach Benson
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·13:02
Giveaway by Zach Metsa
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·12:58
Zach Benson hit Colton Sissons
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·12:53
Noah Hanifin shot blocked by Tage Thompson
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·12:49
Colton Sissons Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
- 3rd·12:37
Noah Ostlund Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
BUF 1·VGK 0
Team stats
BUF
Away
Stat
VGK
Home
25
Shots
29
0.0
PCT
0.0
8
PIM
6
29
Faceoffs W
30
14
Blocks
12
12
Giveaways
19
6
Takeaways
2
Betting line
VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF +114/VGK -135
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
Jack EichelVGK · CDIST MI58.999+
Shea TheodoreVGK · DSKATE MPH23.399
Ryan McLeodBUF · CBURSTS7299
Noah HanifinVGK · DBURSTS1998
Rasmus AnderssonVGK · DDIST MI54.196
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.2%
ensemble · VGK favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(VGK win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(VGK win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(VGK win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+114
Close price
+114
Open no-vig
44.9%
Close no-vig
44.9%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit