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FINAL+2BUF
BUF

BUF

42-20-6

20
VGK

VGK

31-23-14

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 17FinalSeriesBUF wins series 2-0VegasVGK -135

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 2–0.

BUF +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Josh Doan

Josh Doan

RW · #91

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

VGK
Ivan Barbashev

Ivan Barbashev

LW · #49

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
0
BUF42-20-6VGK31-23-14
BUF

BUF

42-20-6

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
VGK

VGK

31-23-14

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

6

Season series

BUF wins series 2-0

Mar 4VGKVGK2@BUFBUF3
Mar 18BUFBUF2@VGKVGK0today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF+11447%
VGKVGK-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat VGK 2-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF1012
VGK0000

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · VGK won 0

1
0

1

0
0

2

1
0

3

BUF
VGK

Play-by-play · 322 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 2·VGK 0

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 2·VGK 0

  3. 3rd·19:37

    Giveaway by Beck Malenstyn

    BUF 2·VGK 0

  4. 3rd·19:21

    Jeremy Lauzon hit Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 2·VGK 0

  5. 3rd·19:02

    Colton Sissons faceoff won against Sam Carrick

    ·

    BUF 2·VGK 0

  6. 3rd·19:02

    Josh Norris Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (22), Mattias Samuelsson (25)

    · ·

    BUF 2·VGK 0

  7. 3rd·18:55

    Mattias Samuelsson shot blocked by Mark Stone

    ·

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  8. 3rd·18:37

    Mark Stone Deflected saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  9. 3rd·17:45

    Shea Theodore shot blocked by Bowen Byram

    ·

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  10. 3rd·17:23

    Tyson Kozak Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  11. 3rd·17:07

    Braeden Bowman Deflected Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  12. 3rd·16:27

    Shea Theodore shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson

    ·

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  13. 3rd·16:15

    Brayden McNabb shot blocked by Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  14. 3rd·16:04

    Brayden McNabb Slap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  15. 3rd·15:41

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  16. 3rd·15:41

    Icing

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  17. 3rd·15:02

    Ivan Barbashev Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  18. 3rd·14:58

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  19. 3rd·14:58

    Puck in Netting

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  20. 3rd·14:55

    Mitch Marner Snap Shot Off Crossbar

    ·

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  21. 3rd·14:32

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  22. 3rd·14:32

    Icing

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  23. 3rd·13:52

    Rasmus Dahlin shot blocked by Rasmus Andersson

    ·

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  24. 3rd·13:34

    Noah Hanifin Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  25. 3rd·13:13

    Brett Howden hit Zach Benson

    ·

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  26. 3rd·13:02

    Giveaway by Zach Metsa

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  27. 3rd·12:58

    Zach Benson hit Colton Sissons

    ·

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  28. 3rd·12:53

    Noah Hanifin shot blocked by Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  29. 3rd·12:49

    Colton Sissons Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 1·VGK 0

  30. 3rd·12:37

    Noah Ostlund Wrist Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    BUF 1·VGK 0

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

25

Shots

29

0.0

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

6

29

Faceoffs W

30

14

Blocks

12

12

Giveaways

19

6

Takeaways

2

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF +114/VGK -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998
  • Rasmus AnderssonVGK · D
    DIST MI54.196

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · VGK favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR