Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at BUF?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3DET

DET

39-25-8

BUF

44-21-8

NHLFri, Mar 27FinalSeriesBUF wins series 2-1VegasBUF -142

DET · top performer

Alex DeBrincat

RW · #93

3Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Tage Thompson

C · #72

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	8:15
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	21:18
A. CoppC · #18	0	0	1	1	2	3	0	18:47
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	1	2	1	4	0	0	0	18:56
E. FinnieC · #58	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	13:02
P. KaneRW · #88	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	18:01
M. KasperC · #92	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:05
D. LarkinC · #71	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	23:14
D. PerronLW · #57	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:13
L. RaymondLW · #23	1	0	0	2	0	0	2	20:14
D. ShineRW · #65	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4:41
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	9:17

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	9:46
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	17:55
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	24:06
J. FaulkD · #72	0	0	0	0	1	3	2	20:11
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	10:11
M. SeiderD · #53	0	2	1	1	1	3	0	29:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	30	2	28	.933	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	0	-3	1	0	0	0	16:55
S. CarrickC · #10	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6:46
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	15:18
P. KrebsC · #19	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	13:12
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	9:28
R. McLeodC · #71	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	18:26
J. NorrisC · #9	0	0	-1	2	4	1	2	16:38
T. PearsonLW · #70	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	5:43
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	0	-1	6	0	0	0	17:24
T. ThompsonC · #72	1	0	0	4	0	1	4	21:16
A. TuchRW · #89	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	18:51
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	17:04

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	1	-1	3	3	1	0	21:17
R. DahlinD · #26	1	0	1	2	0	0	4	23:30
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	-3	2	0	0	0	20:58
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	0	-1	0	5	0	0	21:51
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	1	0	2	1	4	12:05
C. TimminsD · #21	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	14:30

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. LyonG · #34	19	4	15	.789	57:57

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BUF wins series 2-1

Oct 22

DET2@

BUF4

Nov 16

BUF5@

DET4

Mar 27

DET5@

BUF2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DET+12045%

BUF-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 54 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat BUF 5-2. A. DeBrincat led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DET	3	0	2	5
BUF	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

DET won 2 · BUF won 1

DET

BUF

Play-by-play · 278 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DET 5·BUF 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DET 5·BUF 2
3rd·19:50
Josh Norris faceoff won against Dominik Shine
·
DET 5·BUF 2
3rd·19:50
Off-side
DET 5·BUF 2
3rd·19:31
J.T. Compher Snap Shot saved by Alex Lyon
·
DET 5·BUF 2
3rd·18:40
Conor Timmins shot blocked by Justin Faulk
·
DET 5·BUF 2
3rd·18:39
Giveaway by Justin Faulk
DET 5·BUF 2
3rd·18:20
Giveaway by Conor Timmins
DET 5·BUF 2
3rd·18:17
Sam Carrick faceoff won against Marco Kasper
·
DET 5·BUF 2
3rd·18:17
Patrick Kane Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (41)
·
DET 5·BUF 2
3rd·17:55
Alex DeBrincat shot blocked by Bowen Byram
·
DET 4·BUF 2
3rd·17:33
Takeaway by Dylan Larkin
DET 4·BUF 2
3rd·17:24
Giveaway by Dylan Larkin
DET 4·BUF 2
3rd·17:00
Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Dylan Larkin
·
DET 4·BUF 2
3rd·17:00
Icing
DET 4·BUF 2
3rd·16:56
Dylan Larkin Backhand Hit Right Post
DET 4·BUF 2
3rd·16:30
Giveaway by Moritz Seider
DET 4·BUF 2
3rd·16:25
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
DET 4·BUF 2
3rd·16:25
Rasmus Dahlin Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (7), Bowen Byram (27)
· ·
DET 4·BUF 2
3rd·16:21
Bowen Byram shot blocked by Tanner Pearson
·
DET 4·BUF 1
3rd·15:54
Tanner Pearson hit Ben Chiarot
·
DET 4·BUF 1
3rd·15:46
Josh Norris faceoff won against Marco Kasper
·
DET 4·BUF 1
3rd·15:46
Jacob Bernard-Docker Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (31), Alex DeBrincat (40)
· ·
DET 4·BUF 1
3rd·15:29
Albert Johansson hit Zach Benson
·
DET 3·BUF 1
3rd·15:20
Zach Benson Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson
·
DET 3·BUF 1
3rd·14:47
Giveaway by Rasmus Dahlin
DET 3·BUF 1
3rd·14:42
Tage Thompson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
DET 3·BUF 1
3rd·14:40
Giveaway by Moritz Seider
DET 3·BUF 1
3rd·14:38
Giveaway by Josh Doan
DET 3·BUF 1
3rd·14:10
Jason Zucker Tip-In Wide Left
·
DET 3·BUF 1

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·DET +120/BUF -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

etroit Red Wings went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 5–2.

DET +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Tage Thompson · BUF21:360.9373.3%78.1%21:36 TOI · 0.93 iXG · 73.3% CF · 78.1% xGF
Alex DeBrincat · DET19:060.8046.9%54.0%19:06 TOI · 0.80 iXG · 46.9% CF · 54.0% xGF
Jason Zucker · BUF17:120.6987.5%94.2%17:12 TOI · 0.69 iXG · 87.5% CF · 94.2% xGF
Alex Tuch · WSH19:000.5157.9%57.7%19:00 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 57.9% CF · 57.7% xGF
Jack Quinn · BUF17:240.5087.1%93.1%17:24 TOI · 0.50 iXG · 87.1% CF · 93.1% xGF
Andrew Copp · DET18:540.4038.2%41.2%18:54 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 38.2% CF · 41.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

John Gibson · DET28–2.933+0.6928–2 · .933 SV% · +0.69 GSAx
Alex Lyon · BUF15–4.789-1.4915–4 · .789 SV% · -1.49 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.2%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
65.2%
P(BUF win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
65.2%
P(BUF win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
65.2%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at BUF?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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Elsewhere in the NHL

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