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FINAL+3DET
DET

DET

39-25-8

52
BUF

BUF

44-21-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, Mar 27FinalSeriesBUF wins series 2-1VegasBUF -142

Recap · NHL

etroit Red Wings went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 5–2.

DET +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Alex DeBrincat

Alex DeBrincat

RW · #93

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Peyton Krebs

Peyton Krebs

C · #19

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
2
DET39-25-8BUF44-21-8
DET

DET

39-25-8

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

44-21-8

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

14

Season series

BUF wins series 2-1

Oct 22DETDET2@BUFBUF4
Nov 16BUFBUF5@DETDET4
Mar 27DETDET5@BUFBUF2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET+12045%
BUFBUF-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat BUF 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
DET3025
BUF0112

Period scoring

DET won 2 · BUF won 1

3
0

1

0
1

2

2
1

3

DET
BUF

Play-by-play · 278 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    DET 5·BUF 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    DET 5·BUF 2

  3. 3rd·19:50

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Dominik Shine

    ·

    DET 5·BUF 2

  4. 3rd·19:50

    Off-side

    DET 5·BUF 2

  5. 3rd·19:31

    J.T. Compher Snap Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    DET 5·BUF 2

  6. 3rd·18:40

    Conor Timmins shot blocked by Justin Faulk

    ·

    DET 5·BUF 2

  7. 3rd·18:39

    Giveaway by Justin Faulk

    DET 5·BUF 2

  8. 3rd·18:20

    Giveaway by Conor Timmins

    DET 5·BUF 2

  9. 3rd·18:17

    Sam Carrick faceoff won against Marco Kasper

    ·

    DET 5·BUF 2

  10. 3rd·18:17

    Patrick Kane Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (41)

    ·

    DET 5·BUF 2

  11. 3rd·17:55

    Alex DeBrincat shot blocked by Bowen Byram

    ·

    DET 4·BUF 2

  12. 3rd·17:33

    Takeaway by Dylan Larkin

    DET 4·BUF 2

  13. 3rd·17:24

    Giveaway by Dylan Larkin

    DET 4·BUF 2

  14. 3rd·17:00

    Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Dylan Larkin

    ·

    DET 4·BUF 2

  15. 3rd·17:00

    Icing

    DET 4·BUF 2

  16. 3rd·16:56

    Dylan Larkin Backhand Hit Right Post

    DET 4·BUF 2

  17. 3rd·16:30

    Giveaway by Moritz Seider

    DET 4·BUF 2

  18. 3rd·16:25

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    DET 4·BUF 2

  19. 3rd·16:25

    Rasmus Dahlin Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (7), Bowen Byram (27)

    · ·

    DET 4·BUF 2

  20. 3rd·16:21

    Bowen Byram shot blocked by Tanner Pearson

    ·

    DET 4·BUF 1

  21. 3rd·15:54

    Tanner Pearson hit Ben Chiarot

    ·

    DET 4·BUF 1

  22. 3rd·15:46

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Marco Kasper

    ·

    DET 4·BUF 1

  23. 3rd·15:46

    Jacob Bernard-Docker Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (31), Alex DeBrincat (40)

    · ·

    DET 4·BUF 1

  24. 3rd·15:29

    Albert Johansson hit Zach Benson

    ·

    DET 3·BUF 1

  25. 3rd·15:20

    Zach Benson Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson

    ·

    DET 3·BUF 1

  26. 3rd·14:47

    Giveaway by Rasmus Dahlin

    DET 3·BUF 1

  27. 3rd·14:42

    Tage Thompson Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    DET 3·BUF 1

  28. 3rd·14:40

    Giveaway by Moritz Seider

    DET 3·BUF 1

  29. 3rd·14:38

    Giveaway by Josh Doan

    DET 3·BUF 1

  30. 3rd·14:10

    Jason Zucker Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    DET 3·BUF 1

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

20

Shots

30

33.3

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

14

24

Faceoffs W

19

14

Blocks

6

18

Giveaways

18

6

Takeaways

6

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·DET +120/BUF -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
    DIST MI252.196
  • Emmitt FinnieDET · C
    BURSTS19394
  • Dylan LarkinDET · C
    DIST MI243.094

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR