Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at BUF?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2BOS

BOS

45-27-10

BUF

50-23-9

NHLTue, Apr 21FinalSeriesBOS wins series 3-1VegasBUF -166

BOS · top performer

Viktor Arvidsson

LW · #71

2Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Bowen Byram

D · #4

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	2	0	1	5	1	0	0	13:52
M. GeekieC · #39	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	16:17
J. HagensC · #44	0	0	-1	1	3	1	2	11:35
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	0	4	4	2	2	12:23
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	4	1	0	5	10:22
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	14:50
S. KuralyC · #52	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:48
E. LindholmC · #28	0	0	0	1	3	1	2	20:18
F. MintenC · #93	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	16:04
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	2	1	2	1	0	0	13:23
D. PastrnakRW · #88	0	2	0	0	0	2	2	20:04
P. ZachaC · #18	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:24

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	2	1	1	3	4	0	14:22
H. LindholmD · #27	0	0	-1	0	0	4	0	27:40
M. LohreiD · #6	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	11:17
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	1	2	1	4	6	4	27:22
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	1	2	0	1	12	15:41
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	1	1	4	2	16	15:53

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	35	2	33	.943	59:25

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	0	-2	1	0	0	12	11:37
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	-1	2	2	0	2	15:04
J. DunneC · #44	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:29
J. GreenwayLW · #12	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	12:12
P. KrebsC · #19	1	0	1	1	2	1	2	13:13
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	1	0	0	2	0	4	9:40
R. McLeodC · #71	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	20:28
J. NorrisC · #9	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	16:39
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	20:36
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	0	-1	6	2	1	14	16:55
A. TuchRW · #89	0	1	1	3	3	0	2	21:42
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	18:56

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	1	0	0	4	1	0	2	21:58
R. DahlinD · #26	0	1	-1	6	4	0	2	23:28
O. PowerD · #25	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	20:50
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	17:57
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	0	2	1	1	5	12:51
C. TimminsD · #21	0	0	0	1	1	5	2	13:44

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. LuukkonenG · #1	20	4	16	.800	40:16
A. LyonG · #34	7	0	7	1.000	14:10

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 19

BOS3@

BUF4

Apr 21

BOS4@

BUF2today

Apr 23

BUF3@

BOS1

Apr 26

BUF6@

BOS1

Apr 28

BOS2@

BUF1

May 1

BUF4@

BOS1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+14042%

BUF-16662%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 71 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat BUF 4-2. V. Arvidsson led the way — 2 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
BOS	0	3	1	4
BUF	0	0	2	2

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · BUF won 1

BOS

BUF

Play-by-play · 396 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:50
Mark Kastelic faceoff won against Josh Dunne
·
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:50
High Stick
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:48
Jack Quinn shot blocked by Tanner Jeannot
·
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:34
Viktor Arvidsson Backhand Wide Left
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:33
Rasmus Dahlin hit Viktor Arvidsson
·
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:26
Jack Quinn shot blocked by Hampus Lindholm
· ·
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:21
Bowen Byram Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:19
Ryan McLeod Tip-In saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:01
Jack Quinn Wrist Shot Short
·
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·18:48
Tage Thompson Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·18:39
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
· ·
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·18:39
Goalie Stopped
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·18:37
Rasmus Dahlin Slap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·18:32
Tage Thompson shot blocked by Hampus Lindholm
· ·
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·18:22
Josh Norris faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·18:22
On-Ice Official
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·18:19
Rasmus Dahlin hit Charlie McAvoy
·
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·18:02
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·18:02
Puck in Netting
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·17:45
Rasmus Dahlin shot blocked by Charlie McAvoy
·
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·17:40
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·17:40
Goalie Stopped
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·17:38
Alex Tuch Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·17:37
Bowen Byram Slap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·17:36
Giveaway by Elias Lindholm
·
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·17:32
Bowen Byram shot blocked by Morgan Geekie
·
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·17:25
Jack Quinn shot blocked by Jonathan Aspirot
·
BOS 4·BUF 2
3rd·16:40
Hampus Lindholm Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
BOS 4·BUF 2

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·BOS +140/BUF -166

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oston Bruins went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 4–2.

BOS +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Ryan McLeodBUF · C
BURSTS7298
Josh NorrisBUF · C
xGF%6397
Josh DoanBUF · RW
iXG26.793
Marat KhusnutdinovBOS · C
SKATE MPH23.091
Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
SHOT MPH96.091

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.2%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
63.5%
P(BUF win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
63.5%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
63.5%
P(BUF win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-166

Close price

-166

Open no-vig

60.0%

Close no-vig

60.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at BUF?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.