Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at LA?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3BUF

BUF

44-20-6

28-25-16

NHLSat, Mar 21FinalSeriesBUF wins series 2-0VegasBUF -130

BUF · top performer

Zach Benson

LW · #6

2Points

—

SOG

LA · top performer

Artemi Panarin

LW · #10

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	15:16
S. CarrickC · #10	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	15:38
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	12:44
P. KrebsC · #19	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	15:03
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	1	2	3	3	1	0	14:47
R. McLeodC · #71	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:52
J. NorrisC · #9	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	14:40
N. OstlundC · #86	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	13:01
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	0	0	2	2	1	2	11:43
T. ThompsonC · #72	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	18:11
A. TuchRW · #89	0	0	1	4	1	1	0	20:06
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:30

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	22:20
R. DahlinD · #26	1	0	2	1	1	1	0	23:07
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	13:59
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	22:02
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	1	1	0	0	2	2	21:40
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	2	3	1	2	0	16:26

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. LuukkonenG · #1	27	1	26	.963	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ArmiaRW · #40	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	13:44
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	18:45
S. HeleniusC · #79	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	9:06
A. KempeRW · #9	0	1	-2	1	2	0	0	21:06
A. KopitarC · #11	0	1	-2	1	0	0	0	19:52
A. LaferriereRW · #14	0	0	-1	2	5	2	0	18:32
S. LaughtonC · #21	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	15:00
J. MalottLW · #39	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	10:00
T. MooreLW · #12	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	14:47
A. PanarinLW · #10	1	0	-2	3	0	0	0	22:06
T. WardRW · #52	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	9:45
J. WrightRW · #53	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	12:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	20:48
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	18:11
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	0	-2	3	0	3	0	20:38
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	21:05
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	17:11
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	-2	0	2	0	0	17:28

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. ForsbergG · #31	32	3	30	.938	58:35

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BUF wins series 2-0

Jan 30

LA1@

BUF4

Mar 21

BUF4@

LA1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUF-13057%

LA+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 30 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat LA 4-1. Z. Benson led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
BUF	0	1	3	4
LA	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · LA won 1

BUF

Play-by-play · 298 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
BUF 4·LA 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BUF 4·LA 1
3rd·19:01
Logan Stanley Wrist Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
BUF 4·LA 1
3rd·18:33
Josh Norris faceoff won against Scott Laughton
·
BUF 4·LA 1
3rd·18:33
Goalie Stopped
BUF 4·LA 1
3rd·18:31
Jared Wright Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 4·LA 1
3rd·18:29
Scott Laughton shot blocked by Josh Norris
·
BUF 4·LA 1
3rd·17:53
Tage Thompson hit Cody Ceci
·
BUF 4·LA 1
3rd·17:50
Samuel Helenius hit Alex Tuch
·
BUF 4·LA 1
3rd·17:35
Samuel Helenius faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BUF 4·LA 1
3rd·17:35
Zach Benson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (15), Beck Malenstyn (6)
· ·
BUF 4·LA 1
3rd·17:27
Brandt Clarke shot blocked by Beck Malenstyn
·
BUF 3·LA 1
3rd·16:57
Beck Malenstyn shot blocked by Drew Doughty
·
BUF 3·LA 1
3rd·16:20
Giveaway by Joel Armia
BUF 3·LA 1
3rd·16:08
Joel Armia Backhand saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 3·LA 1
3rd·15:10
Josh Norris Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
BUF 3·LA 1
3rd·14:41
Josh Norris faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
BUF 3·LA 1
3rd·14:41
Goalie Stopped
BUF 3·LA 1
3rd·14:38
Bowen Byram Slap Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
BUF 3·LA 1
3rd·14:35
Takeaway by Zach Benson
BUF 3·LA 1
3rd·14:13
Rasmus Dahlin Tip-In Wide Left
·
BUF 3·LA 1
3rd·13:42
Jack Quinn shot blocked by Cody Ceci
·
BUF 3·LA 1
3rd·13:38
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Samuel Helenius
·
BUF 3·LA 1
3rd·13:38
Icing
BUF 3·LA 1
3rd·13:15
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Peyton Krebs
·
BUF 3·LA 1
3rd·13:15
Goalie Stopped
BUF 3·LA 1
3rd·13:13
Josh Doan Wrist Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
BUF 3·LA 1
3rd·13:10
Takeaway by Josh Doan
BUF 3·LA 1
3rd·13:04
Josh Doan Wrist Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
BUF 3·LA 1
3rd·12:41
Sam Carrick Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
BUF 3·LA 1

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF -130/LA +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into Los Angeles Kings and beat them, 4–1.

BUF -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jared Wright · LAK12:420.4957.1%77.3%12:42 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 57.1% CF · 77.3% xGF
Quinton Byfield · LAK18:540.4345.0%49.5%18:54 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 45.0% CF · 49.5% xGF
Trevor Moore · LAK15:000.3650.0%56.6%15:00 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 50.0% CF · 56.6% xGF
Sam Carrick · BUF15:540.3260.0%54.3%15:54 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 60.0% CF · 54.3% xGF
Rasmus Dahlin · BUF23:300.2845.5%40.2%23:30 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 45.5% CF · 40.2% xGF
Joel Armia · LAK13:420.2654.5%76.0%13:42 TOI · 0.26 iXG · 54.5% CF · 76.0% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · BUF26–1.963+1.5226–1 · .963 SV% · +1.52 GSAx
Anton Forsberg · LAK30–3.938-0.9430–3 · .938 SV% · -0.94 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.3%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
42.3%
P(LA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
42.3%
P(LA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
42.3%
P(LA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at LA?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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