Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at BUF?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MTL

MTL

48-24-10

BUF

50-23-9

NHLThu, May 14FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasBUF -118

MTL · top performer

Ivan Demidov

RW · #93

2Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Josh Doan

RW · #91

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	1	0	2	1	0	1	2	14:29
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	9:52
C. CaufieldRW · #13	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	16:48
K. DachC · #77	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	9:05
P. DanaultC · #24	0	2	1	0	1	1	0	16:00
I. DemidovRW · #93	1	1	0	5	2	1	0	14:44
J. EvansC · #71	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	17:50
A. NewhookC · #15	0	1	1	0	1	1	10	16:15
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	3	-1	2	1	1	2	19:17
N. SuzukiC · #14	1	2	0	1	2	2	0	20:45
A. TexierLW · #85	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:27
J. VelenoC · #90	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	9:56

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	1	0	1	1	4	0	23:27
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	1	1	2	3	0	20:20
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	1	1	1	5	0	20:38
L. HutsonD · #48	0	2	1	1	0	0	2	20:33
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	-1	1	1	4	0	26:18
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	7:16

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	36	3	33	.917	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	0	0	1	0	1	10	21:04
J. DoanRW · #91	1	0	0	3	3	0	0	21:32
J. GreenwayLW · #12	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	10:03
K. HeleniusC · #94	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	11:47
P. KrebsC · #19	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	14:46
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	9:21
R. McLeodC · #71	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:23
J. NorrisC · #9	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	20:32
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	16:10
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	0	-2	3	0	0	2	20:05
A. TuchRW · #89	0	0	-2	2	4	2	0	16:59
J. ZuckerLW · #17	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	13:35

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	0	4	0	2	2	21:47
R. DahlinD · #26	0	1	0	3	0	0	2	27:28
O. PowerD · #25	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	21:52
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	1	0	5	1	3	0	25:27
L. SchennD · #5	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	8:01
C. TimminsD · #21	0	1	-1	1	1	0	0	10:56

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. LuukkonenG · #1	23	5	18	.783	40:00
A. LyonG · #34	3	1	2	.667	13:39

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

MTL leads series 3-2

May 6

MTL2@

BUF4

May 8

MTL5@

BUF1

May 10

BUF2@

MTL6

May 12

BUF3@

MTL2

May 14

MTL6@

BUF3today

May 17

BUF8@

MTL3

May 18

MTL3@

BUF2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL-10250%

BUF-11854%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat BUF 6-3. I. Demidov led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	2	3	1	6
BUF	3	0	0	3

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · BUF won 1

MTL

BUF

Play-by-play · 330 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·19:52
Joseph Veleno faceoff won against Peyton Krebs
·
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·19:52
High Stick
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·19:46
Luke Schenn shot blocked by Arber Xhekaj
·
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·18:42
Owen Power hit Jake Evans
·
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·18:39
Konsta Helenius shot blocked by Mike Matheson
·
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·18:35
Owen Power Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·18:22
Ryan McLeod Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·18:11
Owen Power shot blocked by Jake Evans
·
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·17:50
Jake Evans faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·17:50
Alex Newhook Misconduct
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·17:50
Zach Benson Misconduct
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·17:50
Goalie Stopped
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·17:49
Rasmus Dahlin Backhand saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·17:30
Josh Norris Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·16:32
Jake Evans faceoff won against Josh Norris
·
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·16:32
Lane Hutson Cross-checking against Jack Quinn
·
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·16:32
Bowen Byram Slashing against Josh Anderson
·
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·16:32
Josh Anderson Slashing against Bowen Byram
·
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·15:56
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·15:56
Icing
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·15:44
Tage Thompson shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
·
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·15:29
Tage Thompson shot blocked by Juraj Slafkovský
·
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·15:28
Josh Norris faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·15:28
Icing
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·15:23
Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot Wide Right
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·15:22
Giveaway by Ryan McLeod
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·15:08
Alex Tuch Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 6·BUF 3
3rd·14:58
Alex Tuch shot blocked by Mike Matheson
·
MTL 6·BUF 3

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 5.5·MTL -102/BUF -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 6–3.

MTL +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Josh Norris · BUF20:361.0974.1%78.6%20:36 TOI · 1.09 iXG · 74.1% CF · 78.6% xGF
Ivan Demidov · MTL14:540.7044.8%52.0%14:54 TOI · 0.70 iXG · 44.8% CF · 52.0% xGF
Kirby Dach · MTL9:060.5966.7%81.9%9:06 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 66.7% CF · 81.9% xGF
Cole Caufield · MTL16:540.4827.9%21.2%16:54 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 27.9% CF · 21.2% xGF
Juraj Slafkovský · MTL19:300.4126.0%25.6%19:30 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 26.0% CF · 25.6% xGF
Josh Doan · BUF21:420.3667.3%69.8%21:42 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 67.3% CF · 69.8% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jakub Dobes · MTL33–3.917+1.1933–3 · .917 SV% · +1.19 GSAx
Alex Lyon · BUF2–1.667-0.602–1 · .667 SV% · -0.60 GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · BUF18–5.783-1.7618–5 · .783 SV% · -1.76 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.9%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
57.9%
P(BUF win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.9%
P(BUF win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.9%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-122

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

52.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at BUF?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.2pp

best edge · BUF · DraftKings

MTL

no live price

BUF

★ best

-118DraftKings

edge +6.2pp · implied 51.7%

Book	MTL	BUF	Best edge
DraftKings	-102	-118★	+6.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Team pages

Montreal CanadiensBuffalo Sabres

Elsewhere in the NHL

Golden Knights5Ducks1Final