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FINAL+3MTL
MTL

MTL

48-24-10

63
BUF

BUF

50-23-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 997 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, May 14FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasBUF -118

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 6–3.

MTL +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

MTL
Juraj Slafkovsky

Juraj Slafkovsky

LW · #20

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Josh Doan

Josh Doan

RW · #91

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
6
3
MTL48-24-10BUF50-23-9
MTL

MTL

48-24-10

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

50-23-9

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

16

PIM

16

Playoff series

MTL leads series 3-2

May 6MTLMTL2@BUFBUF4
May 8MTLMTL5@BUFBUF1
May 10BUFBUF2@MTLMTL6
May 12BUFBUF3@MTLMTL2
May 14MTLMTL6@BUFBUF3today
May 17BUFBUF8@MTLMTL3
May 18MTLMTL3@BUFBUF2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTLMTL-10250%
BUFBUF-11854%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat BUF 6-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
MTL2316
BUF3003

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · BUF won 1

2
3

1

3
0

2

1
0

3

MTL
BUF

Play-by-play · 330 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  3. 3rd·19:52

    Joseph Veleno faceoff won against Peyton Krebs

    ·

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  4. 3rd·19:52

    High Stick

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  5. 3rd·19:46

    Luke Schenn shot blocked by Arber Xhekaj

    ·

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  6. 3rd·18:42

    Owen Power hit Jake Evans

    ·

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  7. 3rd·18:39

    Konsta Helenius shot blocked by Mike Matheson

    ·

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  8. 3rd·18:35

    Owen Power Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  9. 3rd·18:22

    Ryan McLeod Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  10. 3rd·18:11

    Owen Power shot blocked by Jake Evans

    ·

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  11. 3rd·17:50

    Jake Evans faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  12. 3rd·17:50

    Alex Newhook Misconduct

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  13. 3rd·17:50

    Zach Benson Misconduct

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  14. 3rd·17:50

    Goalie Stopped

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  15. 3rd·17:49

    Rasmus Dahlin Backhand saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  16. 3rd·17:30

    Josh Norris Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  17. 3rd·16:32

    Jake Evans faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  18. 3rd·16:32

    Lane Hutson Cross-checking against Jack Quinn

    ·

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  19. 3rd·16:32

    Bowen Byram Slashing against Josh Anderson

    ·

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  20. 3rd·16:32

    Josh Anderson Slashing against Bowen Byram

    ·

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  21. 3rd·15:56

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Phillip Danault

    ·

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  22. 3rd·15:56

    Icing

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  23. 3rd·15:44

    Tage Thompson shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle

    ·

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  24. 3rd·15:29

    Tage Thompson shot blocked by Juraj Slafkovský

    ·

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  25. 3rd·15:28

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Jake Evans

    ·

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  26. 3rd·15:28

    Icing

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  27. 3rd·15:23

    Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot Wide Right

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  28. 3rd·15:22

    Giveaway by Ryan McLeod

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  29. 3rd·15:08

    Alex Tuch Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 6·BUF 3

  30. 3rd·14:58

    Alex Tuch shot blocked by Mike Matheson

    ·

    MTL 6·BUF 3

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

26

Shots

36

100.0

PCT

0.0

16

PIM

16

33

Faceoffs W

26

25

Blocks

11

16

Giveaways

11

5

Takeaways

4

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 5.5·MTL -102/BUF -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7599
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    BURSTS2398
  • Arber XhekajMTL · D
    SHOT MPH98.598
  • Alex NewhookMTL · C
    BURSTS4896

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-122

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

52.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR