Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at BOS?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3BUF

BUF

50-23-9

BOS

45-27-10

NHLFri, May 1FinalSeriesBOS wins series 3-1VegasBUF -130

BUF · top performer

Tage Thompson

C · #72

2Points

—

SOG

BOS · top performer

David Pastrnak

RW · #88

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	1	1	2	1	1	1	2	16:47
J. DoanRW · #91	0	1	2	5	3	0	0	15:51
J. GreenwayLW · #12	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:58
T. KozakC · #48	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	11:01
P. KrebsC · #19	0	1	2	0	1	3	0	16:58
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	10:36
R. McLeodC · #71	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	14:38
J. NorrisC · #9	1	0	2	2	5	0	0	16:45
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	13:52
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	2	2	5	2	1	0	21:54
A. TuchRW · #89	1	0	2	2	2	2	0	20:36
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	15:25

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	1	1	0	3	0	24:05
R. DahlinD · #26	0	2	2	5	1	2	0	23:48
M. KesselringD · #8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4:25
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21:24
M. SamuelssonD · #23	1	0	2	2	2	2	0	22:36
C. TimminsD · #21	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	18:39

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. LyonG · #34	26	1	25	.962	59:42

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. EyssimontC · #81	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	11:04
M. GeekieC · #39	0	0	-1	4	6	1	2	18:57
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:48
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:40
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	0	-2	1	5	0	0	15:15
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:40
E. LindholmC · #28	0	0	-1	2	4	0	0	17:22
F. MintenC · #93	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	14:59
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	17:24
D. PastrnakRW · #88	1	0	-3	5	1	0	0	18:35
A. SteevesC · #21	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	12:46
P. ZachaC · #18	0	1	-3	1	0	0	0	18:21

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	15:00
H. JokiharjuD · #20	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	14:12
H. LindholmD · #27	0	1	0	0	2	2	2	23:13
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	0	-3	2	6	0	15	25:09
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	-1	1	0	3	0	20:04
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	21:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	25	3	22	.880	58:08

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

BUF wins series 4-2

Apr 19

BOS3@

BUF4

Apr 21

BOS4@

BUF2

Apr 23

BUF3@

BOS1

Apr 26

BUF6@

BOS1

Apr 28

BOS2@

BUF1

May 1

BUF4@

BOS1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUF-13057%

BOS+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 103 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat BOS 4-1. T. Thompson led the way — 2 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
BUF	2	0	2	4
BOS	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · BOS won 1

BUF

BOS

Play-by-play · 342 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·19:33
Giveaway by Andrew Peeke
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:29
Tanner Jeannot faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:29
Charlie McAvoy Game Misconduct
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:29
Charlie McAvoy Slashing against Zach Benson
·
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:29
Zach Benson Tripping against Charlie McAvoy
·
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:29
Icing
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:25
Conor Timmins Wrist Shot Wide Right
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:22
Josh Norris faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:22
Puck in Netting
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:19
Fraser Minten shot blocked by Peyton Krebs
·
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:18
Giveaway by Peyton Krebs
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:08
Fraser Minten faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:08
Icing
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:03
Tage Thompson Wrist Shot Wide Right
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:00
Morgan Geekie shot blocked by Peyton Krebs
·
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:55
David Pastrnak shot blocked by Alex Tuch
·
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:32
David Pastrnak Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:29
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:29
Icing
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:25
Tage Thompson Wrist Shot Wide Left
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:17
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:17
Goalie Stopped
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:14
David Pastrnak Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon
·
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:08
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:08
Puck in Benches
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·16:54
Fraser Minten hit Conor Timmins
·
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·16:46
Giveaway by Beck Malenstyn
BUF 4·BOS 1
3rd·16:40
Fraser Minten faceoff won against Tyson Kozak
·
BUF 4·BOS 1

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 5.5·BUF -130/BOS +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into Boston Bruins and beat them, 4–1.

BUF -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.2%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
49.2%
P(BOS win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
49.2%
P(BOS win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
49.2%
P(BOS win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at BOS?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Buffalo SabresBoston Bruins

Elsewhere in the NHL